Gale Warning 701, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 PM AKST Wed Nov 5 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

Southcentral is transitioning to a more active pattern as a
pronounced low pressure system has moved into the northern Gulf of
Alaska. Precipitation has developed over the Gulf and northern
Gulf coast from the eastern Prince William Sound east, along a
surface front extending north from the aforementioned low. Snow
has begun from Cordova north to Paxson and the Copper River Basin
with areas of snow showers expected to continue through tonight as
the front pushes westward into interior Southcentral. With low
pressure building over the Gulf and cold air built over the
interior of Southcentral, gusty northerly winds draining out of
the gaps such as Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and Valdez Arm
are currently causing gusty winds.

Gusty winds through Thompson Pass are also expected to similarly
continue, and given any transportable snow on or near the
roadways, may also lead to periods of blowing snow through the
pass at times of peak wind gusts. Significant/continued reductions
in visibility are are expected to become increasingly likely by
Thursday morning, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
for snowfall and blowing snow Thursday. Areas of the Copper River
Basin are also expected to see periods of light snowfall this
evening through early Thursday as far north as Paxson and Eureka.
Strong winds coming across the Alaska Peninsula and the 1912
Katmai-Novarupta eruption has resuspended ash, observed aloft on
satellite currently moving over Shelikof Strait towards Kodiak
Island. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for potential
ash resettling over Kodiak Island.

By Thursday morning, snowfall will quickly build across the
eastern Kenai, pushing across the mountains and creating snowfall
near Portage, Turnagain Arm, and Turnagain Pass. Turnagain Pass
will see the quickest rise in snowfall rates, with accumulations
expected along the road system through Thursday. A Special Weather
Statement remains in effect for this, please see that product for
more information. Later Thursday morning, the low will push
further north and west, allowing precipitation to persist closer
to the Anchorage Peninsula, with snowfall expected to begin for
the Hillside, with extensions into south and eastern Anchorage
expected. Snow is expected to continue for these areas of the
city through Thursday afternoon, as the low shifts back into the
western Gulf, retreating the snowfall back up Turnagain Arm.
Snowfall is likely to continue for the Turnagain Pass area through
Friday morning, although warmer air near the surface along with
easterly winds, should allow for snow to changeover to rain for
Whittier and Portage by Thursday afternoon. Homer will see a brief
period of light snow beginning early Thursday afternoon, and
coupled with gusty winds on the bluff may cause periods of reduced
visibility.

-CL/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

An upper-level low across the Upper Kuskokwim Valley will dive
southward across Southwest Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN),
and into the North Pacific by Thursday afternoon and evening. This
will cause gusty northwest winds to pick up through the favorable
terrain, bays, and passes of the AKPEN this evening through
Friday. Gusts may approach 50 to 55 kts at times across the near
shore marines zones on the North Pacific side of the AKPEN with
this round of gusty winds. Scattered snow showers will be likely
across the southern AKPEN as cold air and instability move in from
the north off the Bering Sea. The best chance for snow showers
will be this evening through Friday morning before northerly flow
weakens by then.

The upper low discussed above will eventually move into the Gulf
of Alaska by Friday morning. As it does so, it will interact with
upper energy still across Southwest Alaska. This interaction will
cause an area of deformation to develop across interior Southwest
Alaska Friday morning through Friday evening. The result will be a
swath of light snow along the Western Alaska Range and northern
Aleutian Range in interior Bristol Bay. The best chance for a
light accumulation will be along the Western Alaska Range
including Sparrevohn. Snow tapers off across the interior through
Friday night. Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry
Saturday and Saturday evening as a ridge builds overhead.

Shifting gears to the Aleutians, a surface low near Kamchatka
pushes a weak front across the Western Aleutians this afternoon
through Thursday morning as it arrives to the Central Aleutians by
Thursday afternoon. Accompanying this weak system will be light
rain. This weak frontal system eventually makes it to the Eastern
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands by Friday where rain/snow mix is
likely for the Pribilofs and rain for the Eastern Aleutians. This
front looks to shear apart before it gets to the southwestern
mainland, but may clip Nunivak Island Friday evening with some
light snow showers.

Behind the frontal system, a much stronger low pressure system
will lift from the North Pacific to the western Bering between
Kamchatka and the Western Aleutians Friday. Southeasterly winds
will increase and peak Friday afternoon into early Friday evening
with gusts near 75 mph possible. As the front lifts northward
farther into the western Bering late Friday night, winds will turn
more southerly to southwesterly by late Friday night into Saturday
morning. While sustained winds look to be higher with the initial
southeasterly push, the southwesterly round of winds will feature
a higher gust spread with greater instability. With the threat for
high winds, a High Wind Watch has been issued for the Western
Aleutians from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Winds
look to slowly subside through Saturday afternoon, but continue to
remain gusty through Sunday morning. Expect moderate to heavy
precipitation to accompany the front as it treks eastward from the
Western Aleutians Friday to the southern AKPEN by Saturday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The overall picture remains largely unchanged from yesterday.
Several strong storms will move across Southern Alaska, the Gulf,
and the Bering Sea through early next week. Forecast confidence is
slightly better than usual for this timeframe.

By Sunday, the sub-950 mb low in the Western Bering will have
begun to weaken. Still, expect widespread areas of 25+ kt winds
around the low center as well as the front. Forecast confidence
declines rapidly through Sunday as models struggle with where the
occluded low will track in the Bering Sea. Additionally, models
are honing in on the development of a low at the triple point near
the Alaska Peninsula. However, where this triple point low tracks
and how strong it will be continues to be highly uncertain. There
seems to be decent agreement that the low will eventually curve
into the Gulf on Monday, though track differences make it
difficult to ascertain how far into Southcentral precipitation
will go.

By late Monday, a strong low moving along the Kamchatka coast will
begin pushing its front into the Western Bering Sea. For now,
winds along the front look to remain at sustained high-end gales
to storm force, which is on par with what models were showing
yesterday. What is different, however, is that deterministic
models today are showing the development of a triple point low in
the Bering Sea and a more rapid weakening of the front. As such,
impacts will likely be lower than initially anticipated.

-KC

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected until late Thursday morning when
snow showers moving across Anchorage could reduce ceilings into
MVFR with drops into IFR. Onset of snow is less certain with a
begin time expected between 16Z to 00Z. Northerly winds will also
increase with occasional gusts to 15 kt tonight into Thursday.

&&