High Wind Warning 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

413 
WWAK72 PAFC 070509
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
809 PM AKST Thu Nov 6 2025

AKZ791-071500-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0012.251107T2100Z-251108T1500Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the cities of Amchitka and Shemya
809 PM AKST Thu Nov 6 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM AKST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds becoming south 45 to 65 mph with gusts up 
  to 95 mph.

* WHERE...Western Aleutians.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 6 AM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High winds could move loose debris, damage property, and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A very strong low pressure system enters the 
  Western Bering Sea Friday morning. This system will bring an 
  initial push of strong and gusty winds by noon Friday from the 
  southeast, shifting out of the south early Friday afternoon. Peak 
  winds are expected between midnight Saturday and 3am Saturday 
  morning. Storm-force winds to continue through Saturday afternoon, 
  shifting steadily southwesterly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of widespread 
power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

390 
WWAK72 PAFC 071241
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

AKZ791-080200-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0012.251107T2100Z-251108T1500Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the cities of Amchitka and Shemya
341 AM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM AKST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 50 to 70 mph with gusts up to 95 mph expected.

* WHERE...Western Aleutians.

* WHEN...From noon today to 6 AM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High winds could move loose debris, damage property, and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A very strong low pressure system enters the 
  Western Bering Sea this morning. This system will bring an initial 
  push of strong and gusty winds by noon noon from the southeast, 
  shifting out of the south early this afternoon. Peak winds are 
  expected between midnight Saturday and 3am Saturday morning. 
  Storm-force winds to continue through Saturday afternoon, shifting 
  steadily southwesterly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of widespread 
power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

Mitchell

928 
WWAK72 PAFC 072302
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
202 PM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

AKZ791-081500-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251108T1500Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the cities of Amchitka and Shemya
202 PM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 50 to 70 mph with gusts up to 95 mph.

* WHERE...Western Aleutians.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High winds could move loose debris, damage property, and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A very strong low pressure system has entered 
  the Western Bering Sea this morning. This system is bringing winds 
  out of the southeast early this afternoon. Southerly wind gusts up 
  to 95 mph are expected to peak between midnight Saturday and 3am 
  AKST Saturday morning. Winds between 50 and 60 mph to continue 
  through Saturday afternoon, shifting steadily southwesterly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of widespread 
power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

218 
WWAK72 PAFC 081453
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKST Sat Nov 8 2025

AKZ791-081600-
/O.EXP.PAFC.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251108T1500Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the cities of Shemya and Amchitka
553 AM AKST Sat Nov 8 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING...

Gusty winds will slowly decrease through today. 

$$

Mitchell

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 AM AKST Thu Nov 6 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

An inverted trough, the fractured remnants of an old occluded
front, is sweeping across the northeastern Gulf this morning.
This feature, along with its attendant mid-level trough, will
move into Prince William Sound (PWS) over the next several hours,
bringing snow to the region along with gusty northerly gap winds
along the immediate coast. Ahead of the trough, clouds are on the
increase, but not before overnight lows had the chance to drop
into the teens and 20s for locations along Cook Inlet north into
the interior of Southcentral.

The gusty gap winds will continue through the day today as both
the trough and a trailing potent surface low move toward the
coast. The mid-level trough is serving as an axis for moisture to
advect northward, leading to snow for Thompson Pass, a rain/snow
mix for Valdez, and a cold rain for Cordova this morning. The wind
is also producing blowing snow in Thompson Pass, which is expected
to persist through the day before the bulk of the moisture slides
west.

The aforementioned low will move rapidly north today with its
occluded front swinging to the Southcentral coast by late this
afternoon. Additional moisture will stream into PWS and the Kenai
Peninsula through the day along this frontal boundary. With low
pressure remaining south of PWS, an offshore flow should persist
across the Kenai Peninsula. This will likely allow for the bulk
of the precipitation to fall as snow, even along the immediate
coast. The snow may be heavy at times through the late morning and
afternoon hours from Portage to Seward. For coastal locations,
there may be just enough warm air advection to allow for a
rain/snow mix at times, limiting snow accumulations. For interior
locations along the Seward Highway, though, several inches of
accumulation are likely, with the highest amounts in Turnagain
Pass.

The snow shifts west with the trough through the day with snow
developing from the Western Kenai north toward Talkeetna by late
this afternoon. Snow amounts will be light farther north, but 1 to
4 inches of snow is possible across the Anchorage Bowl with 4 to 8
inches of snow possible across the western Kenai Peninsula
through Friday morning. Northerly winds will also increase through
this evening, and this may help keep drier air in place near the
surface across West Anchorage south to Nikiski, limiting
accumulations there.

The surface low will track south of Seward by early Friday
morning with its cold front likely lifting into PWS later Friday
morning. There is still some uncertainty with the placement and
track of the front, with the magnitude of winds and precipitation
types across PWS and the eastern Kenai Peninsula highly dependent
on the exact track. Nonetheless, winds will become quite strong
for Seward and Resurrection Bay tonight, with gusts to 50 mph
possible, as the low approaches.

Resuspended ash from the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption can be
seen moving over Shelikof Strait towards Kodiak Island on
satellite this morning. This will continue into Friday as winds
remain strong due to cold air advection south of the low. A
Special Weather Statement has been issued for potential ash
resettling over Kodiak Island. Winds may gust to close to 65 mph
across Shelikof Strait and up to 50 mph for Kodiak City.

The low will stall Friday morning before drifting south. Colder
air in the wake of the front will increase instability and allow
for snow showers to linger across the Kenai Peninsula through
Friday. A secondary shortwave moving from the Alaska Panhandle
into the Copper River Basin will likely bring another round of
light snow for the eastern half of Southcentral late Friday into
Saturday.

-TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday evening)...

An elongated upper level low continues to stretch across
Southwest this morning as gusty north to northwest winds slowly
ramp up at the surface. A small amount of moisture wrapping into
the upper level low coupled with weak lift is helping to kick of
isolated to widely scattered snow showers, mainly near the
Kuskokwim Mountains and parts of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.
Otherwise, most of the lower elevations of Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta have begun to dry out, and will stay dry for
today. North winds have mostly kept fog at bay across the
Kuskokwim delta by keeping the boundary layer more mixed compared
to the past few days. Across the Bering Sea, a weak front stemming
from a Kamchatka low is making headway east into the Bering Sea,
sending a wave of small craft level winds and mainly rain showers
across the central and western Aleutian Chain. Out towards the
AKPen, strong northerly winds are also picking up as the pressure
gradient tightens between a low heading up into the Gulf and a
weak ridge sitting out ahead of the Bering front off to the
northwest.

For the forecast details, the overall outlook remains on track as
the pattern turns increasingly unsettled. Gusty winds along the
AKPen and across parts of Southwest will persist into Friday night as
a low continues to track over the Gulf and as cold air continues
to stream south into Southwest and across the eastern Bering. The
upper level low will continue to shift southeast and interact with
the Gulf low, leaving behind a narrow, negatively tilted trough
over Southwest in its place. Moisture wrapping around the low and
across the Alaska Range will help support a band of light snow
along a deformation axis setting up east of the trough on Friday,
bringing light snow into mainly areas along the Alaska Range
between Iliamna and Lime Village. Otherwise, dry conditions and
fairly steady temperatures in the 10s to 20s will persist across
Southwest through the start of the weekend. Lows may dip down
several degrees colder into the 0s to 10 above in some spots by
Friday night as winds finally drop out while a shortwave ridge
moves overhead ahead of a strong system moving over the Bering
Sea.

The strong system touched on above will take center stage for the
attention out west as we head into the weekend. Before the impacts
from this next system begin, the front will send a quick pulse of
northwest winds and scattered showers across the Pribilofs and
eastern Aleutians tonight into Friday. The front will quickly
disintegrate by Friday evening as it heads into the eastern
Bering. Meanwhile, a much more impressive system will be just
getting its act together out in the North Pacific. A fast-moving
low and attendant upper shortwave will phase strongly with a
separate trough moving south of Kamchatka during the day on
Friday, helping the resulting surface low to undergo rapid
intensification as it curves north towards the far western Bering.
A powerful Storm force front with Hurricane force gusts will reach
the western Aleutians by late Friday morning, sending wind gusts
as high as 75 to 85 mph into Shemya as it moves past. Shortly
thereafter, the low center will move just off to the west of Attu
Island as its central minimum pressure bottoms out near 940 mb
sometime late on Friday into early Saturday. A sting jet
descending around the southern and western side of the low will
send a secondary round of powerful southerly winds into the
southwest corner of the Bering Sea, possibly reaching sustained
Hurricane force for a brief period near the very western edge of
the marine outlook area west of Shemya and Attu. Shemya itself
will see another round of very strong southerly winds as the low
passes to the west, again peaking in the 75 to 85 mph range late
Friday night.

From Friday night into Saturday, the low's front will continue
rapidly northeast into the central Bering, sending a band of
southerly winds between gale and storm force along with moderate
rain across much of the Aleutians and Bering, eventually reaching
the Pribilofs and Saint Matthew by Saturday afternoon. Strong
winds will continue near the low as the center continues to lift
slowly north and begin to slowly weaken after reaching peak
intensity. Concerns are beginning to increase that this front
could reach the Southwest Coast later this weekend, possibly
leading to a threat for minor coastal flooding along parts of the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast, namely near Kwigillingok. Stay tuned for
forecast updates an on potential impacts from this upcoming storm
system as we follow it through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The overall picture remains largely unchanged from yesterday.
Several strong storms will move across Southern Alaska, the Gulf,
and the Bering Sea through early next week. Forecast confidence is
slightly better than usual for this timeframe.

By Sunday, the sub-950 mb low in the Western Bering will have
begun to weaken. Still, expect widespread areas of 25+ kt winds
around the low center as well as the front. Forecast confidence
declines rapidly through Sunday as models struggle with where the
occluded low will track in the Bering Sea. Additionally, models
are honing in on the development of a low at the triple point near
the Alaska Peninsula. However, where this triple point low tracks
and how strong it will be continues to be highly uncertain. There
seems to be decent agreement that the low will eventually curve
into the Gulf on Monday, though track differences make it
difficult to ascertain how far into Southcentral precipitation
will go.

By late Monday, a strong low moving along the Kamchatka coast will
begin pushing its front into the Western Bering Sea. For now,
winds along the front look to remain at sustained high-end gales
to storm force, which is on par with what models were showing
yesterday. What is different, however, is that deterministic
models today are showing the development of a triple point low in
the Bering Sea and a more rapid weakening of the front. As such,
impacts will likely be lower than initially anticipated.

-KC

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions along with north winds are expected to
persist into Thursday afternoon. By late Thursday afternoon, a
band of snow will move over the region. MVFR cigs and vis are
expected by late Thursday afternoon with a period of steadier
snow potentially resulting in IFR vis Thursday evening through
around midnight. Northerly winds will also increase Thursday
night with gusts up to 25 kt possible. The stronger winds may help
keep drier air near the surface and reduce the potential for any
significant snow accumulation. However, if snow does accumulate,
occasional drifting snow is possible due to the gusty winds.
Steady snow and gusty winds will likely taper off by Friday
morning.

&&