Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
152 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a
daily chance of thunderstorms into next week. Some storms will
generate strong winds and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will
heat up a few degrees by the middle of the week as high pressure
builds overhead. Looking into July, the pattern is favoring active
weather as additional moisture will likely move into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...20Z radar scans show some isolated thunderstorms
developing over the Chiricahuas and the Huachucas mountains. They
are struggling a bit due to the warm midlevel leading to
unfavorable midlevel lapse rates in the region. The better areas
of thunderstorms are still along the international border and some
areas in the high mountains within Santa Cruz and Cochise County.
This low storm activity will continue throughout the rest of the
afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. Southeast Arizona may
experience few of those outflows to help cool off from the hot day
in the late evening. The CAMS still show potential for an
organized storm just south of the border to produce some more
outflows in the later night.

Thunderstorm chances will remain everyday through the rest of the
week, mainly south and east of Tucson. High Pressure Center will
be shifting back to the east to be in a better position to bring
in a little more moisture across Southeast Arizona. Thunderstorm
chances will increase this weekend for most of the region.

Next week, showers and thunderstorm chances will remain high
through most of the week. CPC 6-10 Day Outlook shows 60-70%
likely above normal for rain amounts. This trend can continue into
the new month due the placement of the high pressure center.
Otherwise, hot temperature still remain.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
Current FEW-SCT 50-70 kft and SCT-BKN 100-140 kft AGL thru the
forecast period. Isolated-scattered -TSRA thru 27/03Z with brief MFR
conditions possible near storms. SFC winds generally remain below 10
kts through the forecast period, except for gusty outflow winds from
storms. KSAD and the Upper Gila Valley can gust up to 30 kts thru
26/04Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side
into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms.
Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate
locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph
each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible.
Stronger erratic outflows with some thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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