Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
147 PM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a daily
chance of thunderstorms into next week. Some storms will generate
strong winds and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will heat up a
few degrees by the middle of the week as high pressure builds
overhead. Looking into July, the pattern is favoring active
weather as additional moisture will likely move into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Skies have seen more clearing this afternoon across southeastern
Arizona in the wake of an exiting mesoscale convective vortex.
While some associated subsidence and delayed insolation should
cause convection to be more isolated today, ample precipitable
water and surface dew points exceeding 60 degrees will allow for a
few stronger thunderstorms. Though deep moisture through the
atmospheric column should diminish the strong outflow threat
across much of the area, drier mid-level air in eastern areas of
the state will allow for higher DCAPE values with a marginally
higher strong wind gust potential. Otherwise, locally heavy
rainfall rates with a slight chance of a strong wind gust
potential under wet microbursts will be the main threats (along
with lightning) with any isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.
Additional convection later this evening can't be ruled out as
outflows out of Sonora and northwest Chihuahua move across the
International Border late.

Going forward, the upper level high will shift west over the next
few days and become more centered over southeastern Arizona. This
should bring temperatures back up a few degrees but below
excessive levels. Mid-level subsidence and the shift in the
moisture trajectory should bring overall thunderstorm chances down
a bit each day, but with adequate surface heating and moderate
atmospheric moisture isolated to scattered convection will be
possible. Ensemble probabilities back off on widespread
precipitation potential through the work week, then reintroduce
stronger probabilities by early next week as the upper high shifts
back east.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.

Isolated-scattered -TSRA across KOLS-KDUG, with very isolated
activity possible further north through KTUS this afternoon and
evening. Additional activity possible at KOLS-KDUG through 26/08Z
as thunderstorms move in from the south. Brief MVFR conditions
possible with thunderstorms. Winds generally remain below 10 kts
through the forecast period, except for gusty outflow winds from
storms. KSAD area may see a few winds gust up to 25 kts tomorrow
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side
into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms.
Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate
locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph
each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible.
Stronger erratic outflows with some thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Aviation...Edwards
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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
853 PM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 W Pirtleville         31.37N 109.69W
06/25/2024  M58 MPH          Cochise            AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet station KP03 Cochise College
            Airport.

&&