Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

345 
WGUS75 KTWC 262230
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024

AZC023-270045-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240627T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
330 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 330 PM MST, gauge reports indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain in the Nogales area with streamflow exceeding bankfull in 
Nogales Wash.  Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Flooding 
impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is expected. Flash 
flooding is already occurring in Nogales Wash.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Gauges reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Nogales.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Nogales Wash, Santa Cruz River and Potrero Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 11097 3133 11099 3136 11100 3139 11098
      3142 11095 3141 11092 3137 11089 3133 11088

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GEL

913 
WGUS75 KTWC 262336
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
436 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024

AZC023-262346-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240627T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
436 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ 
COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded, especially in the Nogales Wash. The heavy 
rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. 
Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 11097 3133 11099 3136 11100 3139 11098
      3142 11095 3141 11092 3137 11089 3133 11088

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
152 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a
daily chance of thunderstorms into next week. Some storms will
generate strong winds and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will
heat up a few degrees by the middle of the week as high pressure
builds overhead. Looking into July, the pattern is favoring active
weather as additional moisture will likely move into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...20Z radar scans show some isolated thunderstorms
developing over the Chiricahuas and the Huachucas mountains. They
are struggling a bit due to the warm midlevel leading to
unfavorable midlevel lapse rates in the region. The better areas
of thunderstorms are still along the international border and some
areas in the high mountains within Santa Cruz and Cochise County.
This low storm activity will continue throughout the rest of the
afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. Southeast Arizona may
experience few of those outflows to help cool off from the hot day
in the late evening. The CAMS still show potential for an
organized storm just south of the border to produce some more
outflows in the later night.

Thunderstorm chances will remain everyday through the rest of the
week, mainly south and east of Tucson. High Pressure Center will
be shifting back to the east to be in a better position to bring
in a little more moisture across Southeast Arizona. Thunderstorm
chances will increase this weekend for most of the region.

Next week, showers and thunderstorm chances will remain high
through most of the week. CPC 6-10 Day Outlook shows 60-70%
likely above normal for rain amounts. This trend can continue into
the new month due the placement of the high pressure center.
Otherwise, hot temperature still remain.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
Current FEW-SCT 50-70 kft and SCT-BKN 100-140 kft AGL thru the
forecast period. Isolated-scattered -TSRA thru 27/03Z with brief MFR
conditions possible near storms. SFC winds generally remain below 10
kts through the forecast period, except for gusty outflow winds from
storms. KSAD and the Upper Gila Valley can gust up to 30 kts thru
26/04Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side
into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms.
Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate
locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph
each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible.
Stronger erratic outflows with some thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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