Tornado Warning 14, NWS Tulsa, OK

189 
WWUS54 KTSA 261047
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
547 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

OKC037-107-261115-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-240426T1115Z/
Creek OK-Okfuskee OK-
547 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL CREEK AND NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES...

At 547 AM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing tornadoes
that may not be visible due to heavy rain was located 5 miles west of
Welty, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okfuskee...                       Boley...
Paden...                          Castle...
Welty...                          Mason...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 9662 3578 9638 3556 9619 3543 9644
      3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650 3543 9652
      3546 9654 3544 9657 3543 9656 3542 9656
      3541 9654 3539 9654 3541 9658 3540 9661
      3542 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 1047Z 242DEG 53KT 3561 9650 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

871 
WWUS54 KTSA 261110
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

OKC037-107-261119-
/O.EXP.KTSA.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-240426T1115Z/
Creek OK-Okfuskee OK-
610 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CREEK AND NORTHWESTERN
OKFUSKEE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 615 AM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 9662 3578 9638 3556 9619 3543 9644
      3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650 3543 9652
      3546 9654 3544 9657 3543 9656 3542 9656
      3541 9654 3539 9654 3541 9658 3540 9661
      3542 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 1109Z 228DEG 44KT 3579 9625 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
258 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Deep warm and moist advection collocated with diffluence aloft
beneath an advancing jet streak has and will continue to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the night.
Previous model guidance had a robust signal for a strong to severe
convective line to push through the area near daybreak. More recent
guidance has trended away from this idea, with instead more
scattered strong to severe storm activity developing. It is
difficult to say whether these adjustments in the CAMs will
ultimately be justified, but we are already seeing increasing radar
activity with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Either way, expect
a busy remainder of the night.

The setup Friday during the day will continue to favor warm and
moist advection across the forecast area. Subsidence behind the wave
that will move through this morning will presumably lead to quiet
weather conditions during the mid to late morning. However, by the
afternoon storms are expected to develop along the dry line. The
atmosphere will be very unstable with perhaps 3000-4000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and little in the way of capping. Additionally, deep moisture
will be present with EPS values near and above the 99th percentile
for low level moisture and moisture transport. Considering this
moisture, instability, and ample shear, supercells will most
likely develop. Any that do occur will be capable of very large
hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Depending on the degree of
stabilization and rate of the eastward progression of the dry
line, storms may form near the Tulsa area (lesser chance) or just
east of it (greater chance). These storms will initially be
discrete, but should merge together with time. Considering these
uncertainties, kept Pops fairly low over northeast OK, assuming a
few storms would form but many areas would also be dry. As storms
congeal, pops are a bit higher for northeast AR. The SPC has
handled this with a slight risk over much of the area, which seems
very reasonable. The WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall,
as locally training storms on wet ground could result in minor
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

During the day Saturday an unusually deep surface low
will rapidly strengthen across western Kansas, reinvigorating the
southerly flow with impressive instability and wind shear
developing. EPS EFI for both Cape-Shear and QPF has values of 0.7 to
0.8 over the area. EPS moisture values will again be near and above
the 99th percentile for EPS climatology for the date.The general
details paint a picture of a higher end severe weather day. Storms
will likely develop along the dry line as a shortwave ejects
eastwards, with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind all
possible (10-30% chance within 25 miles of any given point). A
strengthening LLJ in the evening will help to prolong storm
activity. Storms will gradually transition into a line of very
heavy rainfall, with some some model guidance showing several
inches of rain being possible in spots. The SPC has maintained an
enhanced risk for Saturday with WPC showing a moderate risk of
excessive rainfall leading to flooding Saturday into Sunday.
Details on the exact locations and timing will presumably come
into better focus over the next 24 hours so stay tuned.

Heavy rainfall will translate eastwards Sunday before moving out of
the area. A short break from the stormy weather is expected, but
additional rain and thunder chances will move back into the area
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A warm front draped over the region has yielded vastly different
cigs depending on what side of the front you are located. At KBVO
on the cool side of the front, IFR cigs will persist with sct
shra/tsra thru the night. Meanwhile, down south at KMLC and KFSM,
VFR cigs with spotty shra. Toward daybreak Friday, a storm complex
coming in from the west will bring another round of deteriorated
flight conditions and gusty winds. This activity will be largely
east of the TAF sites by afternoon. There is a low chance of a
storm during the afternoon or early evening, and this was handled
with a prob30 group.

LLWS conditions are ongoing at most sites thru the night. Another
night of LLWS is expected over in NW AR on Friday night.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  80  62 /  90  10  70  90
FSM   76  67  82  66 /  90  40  70  60
MLC   77  67  80  64 /  90  20  70  80
BVO   82  64  80  60 /  60  10  70  90
FYV   73  63  79  63 / 100  40  60  60
BYV   73  64  80  63 /  90  40  50  50
MKO   76  66  80  62 /  90  20  60  80
MIO   75  66  81  62 / 100  20  60  80
F10   78  66  79  62 /  90  10  70  90
HHW   75  66  80  64 /  90  30  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
509 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
509 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur this morning as
storms move in from the west to east. A few of these storms could
be severe, producing damaging wind, large hail, and an isolated
tornado or two. A lull in activity will most likely occur from mid
morning to early afternoon. Additional thunderstorm activity is
expected to develop near or east of Tulsa in the late afternoon.
Once again, severe weather will be possible with any storms that
form. Areas of heavy rain are also expected, with localized
excessive rain leading to minor flash flooding. Storm activity
will then move east into Arkansas in the evening hours. Gusty
southerly winds will blow throughout the day.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Saturday will be another day with severe storm potential. The most
likely period for severe weather will be during the afternoon and
evening hours. All severe hazards will be possible, including
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. At some point later on
Saturday, the severe risk will begin to decline while the flash
flood threat increases. Areas of very heavy rainfall will occur
Saturday night into Sunday, with localized flooding potential.
Area rivers may also begin to rise near the corridors of heaviest
rainfall.

Storm chances will gradually diminish later on Sunday, but any
break will be short lived with additional storm chances for
midweek. Areas of heavy rain may develop once again.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
337 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

OKZ054-059-064-260900-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
337 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...
NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM
CDT...

At 337 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southeast of Jennings, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hominy...                         Cleveland...
Mannford...                       Oilton...
Jennings...                       Westport...
Osage...                          Hallett...
Blackburn...                      Terlton...
Walnut Creek State Park...        Silver City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 9641 3603 9662 3617 9662 3616 9665
      3654 9655 3641 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0837Z 206DEG 45KT 3615 9653

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
419 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

OKZ054>056-060-061-260945-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
419 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...EAST
CENTRAL OSAGE...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA AND NORTH
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

At 419 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Vera, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Nowata...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Ramona...                         Ochelata...
Avant...                          Talala...
Vera...                           Watova...
Wolco...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 9587 3637 9613 3675 9602 3669 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0919Z 210DEG 37KT 3645 9594

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH