Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tulsa, OK

792 
WWUS54 KTSA 261156
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
656 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

OKC111-261205-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-240426T1215Z/
Okmulgee OK-
656 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 9598 3535 9587 3555 9576 3555 9571
      3563 9572 3575 9565 3602 9512 3551 9512
      3516 9527 3515 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1155Z 250DEG 48KT 3581 9541 3566 9541 3545 9546 3523
9575

$$

OKC021-061-091-101-121-145-261215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-240426T1215Z/
Haskell OK-McIntosh OK-Wagoner OK-Cherokee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Muskogee OK-
656 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL HASKELL...MCINTOSH...SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...
SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE...NORTHERN PITTSBURG AND MUSKOGEE COUNTIES...

At 655 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles southeast of Tullahassee to 6 miles northwest
of Keefeton to 3 miles east of Checotah to 3 miles southeast of
Raiford, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Eufaula...
Fort Gibson...                    Checotah...
Warner...                         Gore...
Porum...                          Okay...
Webbers Falls...                  Hulbert...
Whitefield...                     Oktaha...
Braggs...                         Taft...
Boynton...                        Canadian...
Indianola...                      Council Hill...
Hanna...                          Rentiesville...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 247 and
286.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 9598 3535 9587 3555 9576 3555 9571
      3563 9572 3575 9565 3602 9512 3551 9512
      3516 9527 3515 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1155Z 250DEG 48KT 3581 9541 3566 9541 3545 9546 3523
9575

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
258 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Deep warm and moist advection collocated with diffluence aloft
beneath an advancing jet streak has and will continue to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the night.
Previous model guidance had a robust signal for a strong to severe
convective line to push through the area near daybreak. More recent
guidance has trended away from this idea, with instead more
scattered strong to severe storm activity developing. It is
difficult to say whether these adjustments in the CAMs will
ultimately be justified, but we are already seeing increasing radar
activity with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Either way, expect
a busy remainder of the night.

The setup Friday during the day will continue to favor warm and
moist advection across the forecast area. Subsidence behind the wave
that will move through this morning will presumably lead to quiet
weather conditions during the mid to late morning. However, by the
afternoon storms are expected to develop along the dry line. The
atmosphere will be very unstable with perhaps 3000-4000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and little in the way of capping. Additionally, deep moisture
will be present with EPS values near and above the 99th percentile
for low level moisture and moisture transport. Considering this
moisture, instability, and ample shear, supercells will most
likely develop. Any that do occur will be capable of very large
hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Depending on the degree of
stabilization and rate of the eastward progression of the dry
line, storms may form near the Tulsa area (lesser chance) or just
east of it (greater chance). These storms will initially be
discrete, but should merge together with time. Considering these
uncertainties, kept Pops fairly low over northeast OK, assuming a
few storms would form but many areas would also be dry. As storms
congeal, pops are a bit higher for northeast AR. The SPC has
handled this with a slight risk over much of the area, which seems
very reasonable. The WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall,
as locally training storms on wet ground could result in minor
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

During the day Saturday an unusually deep surface low
will rapidly strengthen across western Kansas, reinvigorating the
southerly flow with impressive instability and wind shear
developing. EPS EFI for both Cape-Shear and QPF has values of 0.7 to
0.8 over the area. EPS moisture values will again be near and above
the 99th percentile for EPS climatology for the date.The general
details paint a picture of a higher end severe weather day. Storms
will likely develop along the dry line as a shortwave ejects
eastwards, with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind all
possible (10-30% chance within 25 miles of any given point). A
strengthening LLJ in the evening will help to prolong storm
activity. Storms will gradually transition into a line of very
heavy rainfall, with some some model guidance showing several
inches of rain being possible in spots. The SPC has maintained an
enhanced risk for Saturday with WPC showing a moderate risk of
excessive rainfall leading to flooding Saturday into Sunday.
Details on the exact locations and timing will presumably come
into better focus over the next 24 hours so stay tuned.

Heavy rainfall will translate eastwards Sunday before moving out of
the area. A short break from the stormy weather is expected, but
additional rain and thunder chances will move back into the area
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A warm front draped over the region has yielded vastly different
cigs depending on what side of the front you are located. At KBVO
on the cool side of the front, IFR cigs will persist with sct
shra/tsra thru the night. Meanwhile, down south at KMLC and KFSM,
VFR cigs with spotty shra. Toward daybreak Friday, a storm complex
coming in from the west will bring another round of deteriorated
flight conditions and gusty winds. This activity will be largely
east of the TAF sites by afternoon. There is a low chance of a
storm during the afternoon or early evening, and this was handled
with a prob30 group.

LLWS conditions are ongoing at most sites thru the night. Another
night of LLWS is expected over in NW AR on Friday night.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  80  62 /  90  10  70  90
FSM   76  67  82  66 /  90  40  70  60
MLC   77  67  80  64 /  90  20  70  80
BVO   82  64  80  60 /  60  10  70  90
FYV   73  63  79  63 / 100  40  60  60
BYV   73  64  80  63 /  90  40  50  50
MKO   76  66  80  62 /  90  20  60  80
MIO   75  66  81  62 / 100  20  60  80
F10   78  66  79  62 /  90  10  70  90
HHW   75  66  80  64 /  90  30  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
509 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
509 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur this morning as
storms move in from the west to east. A few of these storms could
be severe, producing damaging wind, large hail, and an isolated
tornado or two. A lull in activity will most likely occur from mid
morning to early afternoon. Additional thunderstorm activity is
expected to develop near or east of Tulsa in the late afternoon.
Once again, severe weather will be possible with any storms that
form. Areas of heavy rain are also expected, with localized
excessive rain leading to minor flash flooding. Storm activity
will then move east into Arkansas in the evening hours. Gusty
southerly winds will blow throughout the day.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Saturday will be another day with severe storm potential. The most
likely period for severe weather will be during the afternoon and
evening hours. All severe hazards will be possible, including
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. At some point later on
Saturday, the severe risk will begin to decline while the flash
flood threat increases. Areas of very heavy rainfall will occur
Saturday night into Sunday, with localized flooding potential.
Area rivers may also begin to rise near the corridors of heaviest
rainfall.

Storm chances will gradually diminish later on Sunday, but any
break will be short lived with additional storm chances for
midweek. Areas of heavy rain may develop once again.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
337 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

OKZ054-059-064-260900-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
337 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...
NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM
CDT...

At 337 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southeast of Jennings, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hominy...                         Cleveland...
Mannford...                       Oilton...
Jennings...                       Westport...
Osage...                          Hallett...
Blackburn...                      Terlton...
Walnut Creek State Park...        Silver City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 9641 3603 9662 3617 9662 3616 9665
      3654 9655 3641 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0837Z 206DEG 45KT 3615 9653

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
419 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

OKZ054>056-060-061-260945-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
419 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...EAST
CENTRAL OSAGE...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA AND NORTH
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

At 419 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Vera, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Nowata...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Ramona...                         Ochelata...
Avant...                          Talala...
Vera...                           Watova...
Wolco...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 9587 3637 9613 3675 9602 3669 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0919Z 210DEG 37KT 3645 9594

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Kellyville              35.95N 96.21W
04/26/2024  E60 MPH          Creek              OK   NWS Employee

            Along I-44.

&&

pbs