Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Deep warm and moist advection collocated with diffluence aloft
beneath an advancing jet streak has and will continue to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the night.
Previous model guidance had a robust signal for a strong to severe
convective line to push through the area near daybreak. More recent
guidance has trended away from this idea, with instead more
scattered strong to severe storm activity developing. It is
difficult to say whether these adjustments in the CAMs will
ultimately be justified, but we are already seeing increasing radar
activity with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Either way, expect
a busy remainder of the night.

The setup Friday during the day will continue to favor warm and
moist advection across the forecast area. Subsidence behind the wave
that will move through this morning will presumably lead to quiet
weather conditions during the mid to late morning. However, by the
afternoon storms are expected to develop along the dry line. The
atmosphere will be very unstable with perhaps 3000-4000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and little in the way of capping. Additionally, deep moisture
will be present with EPS values near and above the 99th percentile
for low level moisture and moisture transport. Considering this
moisture, instability, and ample shear, supercells will most
likely develop. Any that do occur will be capable of very large
hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Depending on the degree of
stabilization and rate of the eastward progression of the dry
line, storms may form near the Tulsa area (lesser chance) or just
east of it (greater chance). These storms will initially be
discrete, but should merge together with time. Considering these
uncertainties, kept Pops fairly low over northeast OK, assuming a
few storms would form but many areas would also be dry. As storms
congeal, pops are a bit higher for northeast AR. The SPC has
handled this with a slight risk over much of the area, which seems
very reasonable. The WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall,
as locally training storms on wet ground could result in minor
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

During the day Saturday an unusually deep surface low
will rapidly strengthen across western Kansas, reinvigorating the
southerly flow with impressive instability and wind shear
developing. EPS EFI for both Cape-Shear and QPF has values of 0.7 to
0.8 over the area. EPS moisture values will again be near and above
the 99th percentile for EPS climatology for the date.The general
details paint a picture of a higher end severe weather day. Storms
will likely develop along the dry line as a shortwave ejects
eastwards, with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind all
possible (10-30% chance within 25 miles of any given point). A
strengthening LLJ in the evening will help to prolong storm
activity. Storms will gradually transition into a line of very
heavy rainfall, with some some model guidance showing several
inches of rain being possible in spots. The SPC has maintained an
enhanced risk for Saturday with WPC showing a moderate risk of
excessive rainfall leading to flooding Saturday into Sunday.
Details on the exact locations and timing will presumably come
into better focus over the next 24 hours so stay tuned.

Heavy rainfall will translate eastwards Sunday before moving out of
the area. A short break from the stormy weather is expected, but
additional rain and thunder chances will move back into the area
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Line of storms moving across NE OK and possibly NW AR later this
morning to bring reduced flight conditions in the near term. After
the morning round, some isolated to widely scattered storms are
expected to develop this afternoon. With coverage still looking on
the lower side, elected to use VCTS for the E OK sites, and
PROB30s for the NW AR sites to cover. After this round of storms,
expected much of tonight to be quiet. After a period of VFR
conditions this evening, MVFR cigs are expected to return late
tonight with LLWS conditions over in NW AR.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  80  62 /  90  10  70  90
FSM   76  67  82  66 /  90  40  70  60
MLC   77  67  80  64 /  90  20  70  80
BVO   82  64  80  60 /  60  10  70  90
FYV   73  63  79  63 / 100  40  60  60
BYV   73  64  80  63 /  90  40  50  50
MKO   76  66  80  62 /  90  20  60  80
MIO   75  66  81  62 / 100  20  60  80
F10   78  66  79  62 /  90  10  70  90
HHW   75  66  80  64 /  90  30  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
509 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
509 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern OK and northwest AR.
	ONSET...Early this morning, then again late afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur this morning as
storms move in from the west to east. A few of these storms could
be severe, producing damaging wind, large hail, and an isolated
tornado or two. A lull in activity will most likely occur from mid
morning to early afternoon. Additional thunderstorm activity is
expected to develop near or east of Tulsa in the late afternoon.
Once again, severe weather will be possible with any storms that
form. Areas of heavy rain are also expected, with localized
excessive rain leading to minor flash flooding. Storm activity
will then move east into Arkansas in the evening hours. Gusty
southerly winds will blow throughout the day.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Saturday will be another day with severe storm potential. The most
likely period for severe weather will be during the afternoon and
evening hours. All severe hazards will be possible, including
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. At some point later on
Saturday, the severe risk will begin to decline while the flash
flood threat increases. Areas of very heavy rainfall will occur
Saturday night into Sunday, with localized flooding potential.
Area rivers may also begin to rise near the corridors of heaviest
rainfall.

Storm chances will gradually diminish later on Sunday, but any
break will be short lived with additional storm chances for
midweek. Areas of heavy rain may develop once again.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
819 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NW Jenks              36.07N 96.03W
04/26/2024  E60 MPH          Tulsa              OK   Public

&&

pbs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
834 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

OKZ075-076-261415-
Latimer OK-Le Flore OK-
834 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LATIMER AND WEST CENTRAL
LE FLORE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM CDT...

At 834 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles southwest of Red Oak to 2 miles north of
Yanush. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wilburton...                      Talihina...
Red Oak...                        Fanshawe...
Damon...                          Bengal...
Panola...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 9489 3474 9504 3473 9543 3493 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 270DEG 30KT 3494 9512 3474 9532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
834 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ072-074-261415-
Sebastian AR-Franklin AR-Crawford AR-Haskell OK-Sequoyah OK-
834 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN...NORTHEASTERN HASKELL AND EASTERN
SEQUOYAH COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM CDT...

At 834 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles northwest of Short to 4 miles northeast
of Keota. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Cedarville...                     Mountainburg...
Alma...                           Muldrow...
Roland...                         Mulberry...
Dyer...                           Gans...
Moffett...                        Rudy...
Figure Five...                    Fern...
Short...                          Kibler...
Concord...                        Shibley...
Piney...                          Cottonwood...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 22.
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 310 and 328.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 8.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for southeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 9409 3538 9414 3534 9421 3536 9436
      3535 9443 3538 9443 3538 9447 3533 9450
      3530 9449 3533 9460 3529 9466 3533 9469
      3536 9476 3532 9481 3528 9482 3527 9493
      3563 9453 3566 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 256DEG 43KT 3564 9455 3528 9485

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

ARZ019-020-029-261500-
Sebastian AR-Franklin AR-Crawford AR-
916 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN
CRAWFORD AND NORTHERN SEBASTIAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 AM CDT...

At 916 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Chester to near Fort Smith Regional Airport.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Ozark...                          Mountainburg...
Alma...                           Lavaca...
Mulberry...                       Dyer...
Altus...                          Rudy...
Wiederkehr Village...             Fern...
Fort Smith Regional Airport...    Kibler...
Concord...                        Jethro...
Shibley...                        Turners Bend...
Vesta...                          Cecil...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 6 and 38.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 3, and between mile
markers 8 and 9.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 9383 3534 9438 3565 9426 3568 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 1416Z 248DEG 29KT 3567 9418 3531 9437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
926 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

ARZ020-029-OKZ076-261515-
Sebastian AR-Franklin AR-Le Flore OK-
926 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...SEBASTIAN
AND NORTHERN LE FLORE COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM CDT...

At 925 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles northeast of Barling to 4 miles southwest
of Hackett to 2 miles southeast of Fanshawe. Movement was east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Poteau...
Charleston...                     Greenwood...
Barling...                        Pocola...
Lavaca...                         Mansfield...
Wister...                         Hackett...
Howe...                           Hartford...
Huntington...                     Bonanza...
Branch...                         Midland...
Cameron...                        Excelsior...
Fort Smith Regional Airport...    Bloomer...

This includes Interstate 540 between mile markers 10 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 9392 3523 9392 3523 9403 3514 9403
      3514 9414 3510 9414 3506 9425 3506 9423
      3497 9424 3495 9434 3496 9437 3494 9439
      3493 9444 3491 9445 3490 9495 3512 9469
      3534 9439 3535 9381 3531 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 1425Z 258DEG 26KT 3535 9428 3513 9444 3493 9489

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH