River Flood Warning 13, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
339 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
Forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Hurricane Debby was located
about 40 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida and was moving north at
12 MPH. Levy county experiencing worst of conditions attm as storm
surge is significantly increasing water levels along the coast,
and a persistent band of heavy rain is training onshore.
Additional trailing bands of locally heavy rain extend south
across most of the coastal counties of west central Florida. Flash
flood warnings are in effect for most areas of the coastal
counties from Levy county to Sarasota county until 5 AM...and
warnings will likely need to be extended for some areas,
especially north. Doppler radar estimates that rainfall totals for
the past two days have been in the 8 to 12 inch range for a large
portion of Sarasota, Manatee, Pinellas, southwest Pasco, and
southern Levy counties...with several inches of rain still
possible, with highest additional rainfall likely north.

After Debby makes landfall today, winds and rain will
gradually subside into tonight...however, several feeder bands of
rain and isolated thunderstorms will persist with locally heavy
rain still possible, which will likely continue into Tuesday.
High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected through
Tuesday. High degree of uncertainty in the longer range as much
will depend on the eventual track of Debby...and if any residual
convergent feeder bands of showers/thunderstorms remain across
the forecast area. Otherwise, daytime heating will generate
scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 318 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
Windy conditions with periods of heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue at most terminals today with LCL MVFR
CIGs and IFR VSBYs...with slightly lower winds at FMY/RSW/PGD,
however breezy conditions will continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
Very hazardous marine conditions today associated with Hurricane
Debby. After Debby makes landfall today, winds and seas will
gradually subside tonight and Tuesday, however winds and seas will
remain elevated for the next couple of days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above
critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  80  89  82 /  90  80  90  40
FMY  88  81  90  81 /  70  70  90  40
GIF  86  79  91  80 /  80  70  80  30
SRQ  89  80  90  82 /  80  80  90  50
BKV  86  78  90  78 / 100  90  90  40
SPG  88  83  90  85 /  90  80  90  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-
     Sumter.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-
     Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Sumter.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Pinellas.

     Tropical Storm Watch for DeSoto-Hardee-Inland Charlotte-Polk.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Levy.

     Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Sarasota.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee.

     Hurricane Watch for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
344 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     Tropical Cyclone 6 S Chiefland           29.40N 82.87W
08/05/2024                   Levy               FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CHIEFLAND reported 76 mph
            wind gust.

&&