Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1222 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
Little overall change to the forecast philosophy. Hurricane Debby
was located about 65 miles west southwest of Cedar Key and was
moving north at 12 MPH. The tropical storm warning for coastal
Levy county was upgraded to a hurricane warning. This has also
resulted in raising the expected storm surge values for coastal
Levy to 6 to 10 feet AGL. Bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms continue to rotate around the circulation of Debby
across west central Florida. These bands are producing periods of
locally heavy rain from Sarasota county and north. Coastal areas
of west central Florida have already received 6 to 12 inches of
rain...and an additional 3 to 6 inches is possible through early
Monday morning. This has caused considerable flash flooding in the
region with emergency management in a few counties reporting the
need for water rescues. The flash flood threat will expand north
across the nature coast tonight, and additional flash flood
warnings may be needed. Atmosphere remains favorable for isolated
tornadoes tonight across much of the forecast area on the east and
southeast side of Debby. Convergent feeder bands will likely
persist across portions of west central Florida on Monday and
Monday night, even after landfall. These bands will be capable of
producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

The days 1 and 2 forecast remains on track. Tropical Storm Debby
continues to parallel our coastline bringing heavy rain, high winds,
storm surge, and the threat of tornadoes to the forecast area. TS
Debby continues to strengthen as it moves northward. Landfall is
currently forecast by the NHC to be along the Big Bend of Florida as
a category 1 hurricane on Monday. Nearly everyone is already seeing
some form of impacts from TS Debby as the storm scrapes the western
Florida coast.

Heavy rain showers will be widespread with isolated thunderstorms
possible in the stronger rain bands. As the rain bands move onshore
and interact with moderate low-level SRH, embedded supercells will
pose an isolated tornado risk today. High winds and heavy rainfall
amounts will impact much of the Florida Peninsula, but the highest
winds and heaviest rainfall amounts will be focused closer to the
coast. A wide variety of impacts are expected with this system
throughout the next couple of days. Please see local tropical
products for specific regional impacts expected with TS Debby across
the forecast area and a list of active watches/warnings at the end
of this product. Also see related tropical products issued from this
office for additional information.

Tropical Storm Debby will begin to exit the area on Monday with the
majority of the impacts wrapping up on Tuesday. However, with weak
steering flow, Debby will meander slowly to the north of Florida
through at least mid week. Southwest flow into the storm will lead
to convergent rain bands trailing across the state. These rain bands
could lead to localized heavy rain and flooding concerns for several
days. Significant uncertainty remains for the end of the forecast
period due to the slow and wobbly nature of TS Debby's track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Widespread rain with embedded heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue to move across the TAF sites into tonight causing
MVFR/occasional IFR conditions. The rainfall coverage will diminish
from south to north later this evening and overnight with scattered
to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms persisting through
Monday. Southeast winds at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40
knots will continue into early tonight then shift south overnight
and then southwest Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

As Tropical Storm Debby approaches and tracks just west of the
waters today and tonight, conditions will continue to deteriorate
with increasing winds and significant building of seas. Hazardous
marine conditions are expected to develop which will persist into
Monday. Winds and seas will gradually subside Monday night and
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  80  89  82 /  90  80  90  60
FMY  89  81  90  81 /  80  50  80  50
GIF  87  78  91  79 /  80  60  90  40
SRQ  89  80  90  81 /  90  80  90  60
BKV  86  78  89  79 /  90  80  90  50
SPG  89  83  90  84 /  90  80  90  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-
     Sumter.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-
     Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Sumter.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Pinellas.

     Tropical Storm Watch for DeSoto-Hardee-Inland Charlotte-Polk.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Levy.

     Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Sarasota.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee.

     Hurricane Watch for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1138 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 PM     Tropical Cyclone 6 NNW Anna Maria Island 27.61N 82.76W
08/04/2024                   GMZ853             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station Egmont Channel reported 59
            mph wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1139 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     Tropical Cyclone 1 S Whitfield           27.40N 82.57W
08/04/2024                   Manatee            FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KSRQ Sarasota Bradent reported
            63 mph wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1240 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     Tropical Cyclone 1 SE Cedar Key          29.14N 83.03W
08/05/2024                   Levy               FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 1057W 0.8 SE Cedar Key
            (WEATHERSTEM) reported a wind gust of 67
            MPH.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
145 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     Tropical Cyclone 1 S Whitfield           27.40N 82.57W
08/05/2024                   Manatee            FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KSRQ Sarasota Bradenton Airport
            reported a wind gust of 64 MPH.

&&