Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
307 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

The days 1 and 2 forecast remains on track. Tropical Storm Debby
continues to parallel our coastline bringing heavy rain, high winds,
storm surge, and the threat of tornadoes to the forecast area. TS
Debby continues to strengthen as it moves northward. Landfall is
currently forecast by the NHC to be along the Big Bend of Florida as
a category 1 hurricane on Monday. Nearly everyone is already seeing
some form of impacts from TS Debby as the storm scrapes the western
Florida coast.

Heavy rain showers will be widespread with isolated thunderstorms
possible in the stronger rain bands. As the rain bands move onshore
and interact with moderate low-level SRH, embedded supercells will
pose an isolated tornado risk today. High winds and heavy rainfall
amounts will impact much of the Florida Peninsula, but the highest
winds and heaviest rainfall amounts will be focused closer to the
coast. A wide variety of impacts are expected with this system
throughout the next couple of days. Please see local tropical
products for specific regional impacts expected with TS Debby across
the forecast area and a list of active watches/warnings at the end
of this product. Also see related tropical products issued from this
office for additional information.

Tropical Storm Debby will begin to exit the area on Monday with the
majority of the impacts wrapping up on Tuesday. However, with weak
steering flow, Debby will meander slowly to the north of Florida
through at least mid week. Southwest flow into the storm will lead
to convergent rain bands trailing across the state. These rain bands
could lead to localized heavy rain and flooding concerns for several
days. Significant uncertainty remains for the end of the forecast
period due to the slow and wobbly nature of TS Debby's track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Widespread rain with embedded heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue to move across the TAF sites into tonight causing
MVFR/occasional IFR conditions. The rainfall coverage will diminish
from south to north later this evening and overnight with scattered
to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms persisting through
Monday. Southeast winds at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40
knots will continue into early tonight then shift south overnight
and then southwest Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

As Tropical Storm Debby approaches and tracks just west of the
waters today and tonight, conditions will continue to deteriorate
with increasing winds and significant building of seas. Hazardous
marine conditions are expected to develop which will persist into
Monday. Winds and seas will gradually subside Monday night and
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  86  80  89 / 100  90  80  90
FMY  79  89  81  90 /  80  80  50  80
GIF  78  87  78  91 /  80  80  60  90
SRQ  78  89  80  90 / 100  90  80  90
BKV  76  86  78  89 / 100  90  80  90
SPG  81  89  83  90 / 100  90  80  90

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-
     Sumter.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-
     Sumter.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Pinellas.

     Tropical Storm Watch for DeSoto-Hardee-Inland Charlotte-Inland
     Lee-Polk.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Levy-Inland Levy.

     Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Sarasota.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT/AVIATION...Close
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle/Wynn

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