Special Marine Warning 101, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
258 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to sag south across the area through
tonight and stall to our south Wednesday into Wednesday night.
This front will likely lift back north into the area as Tropical
Storm Debby or its remnants move into the area later Friday into
Saturday. Another cold front will move across the area Saturday
into Saturday night, helping to kick what is left of Debby out.
High pressure tries to move toward the area Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #606 is now in effect across eastern
Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey.

The Heat Advisory remains in effect as heat index values remain
near 100 degrees for many areas. However, the heat will
dissipate some through this afternoon as showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop across the area. There
is the potential for severe storms to develop today and this
evening/tonight, along with the potential for heavy rainfall
that could produce localized flooding. In fact, the Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded a portion of the area to
an Enhanced Risk for severe weather.

Heavy rain will occur with any showers or thunderstorms due to
a very moist and humid airmass with PW values of 1.75-2 inches.
But with CAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/kg, along with
shear values increasing to 25-35+ knots, some storms later this
afternoon and into this evening could be severe. We have 2
rounds of strong storms likely. The first round will move across
the area between 6-10 pm, then the second will likely move
across the area between 10 pm-2 am. Damaging winds and hail
would be the main threats. There will be showers and
thunderstorms before and after these windows, but likely not
severe, mainly heavy rainfall.

The Flood Watch will remain across the area as heavy rain will
occur with any showers or storms. With the high PW values,
widespread 2-3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts of 5
inches or more remain possible, especially within the watch
area. These areas remain under a Moderate Risk (3 of 4) for
Excessive Rain according to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

The cold front will continue to sag south overnight into
Wednesday, and eventually push to our south. However, there will
remain a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day
Wednesday. Wednesday will be markedly cooler than Tuesday, with
temperatures in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure offshore to the east/northeast and the remnants of
Debby across the Southeast states will keep a deep onshore flow
across the Middle Atlantic through the period. Frequent showers and
a few tstms will be around much of the period. Heavy rains and
flooding will be concerns with the isolated/scattered convection Wed
night/Thu and then again with the more concentrated activity Thu
night Friday. While excessive rain totals are expected, the exact
areas are not certain yet. Coolish temperatures will replace the hot
temperatures of late as there will be an abundance of clouds. The
humidity levels will remain high and uncomfortable however.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A rather dry forecast after a wet period late this week. The start
of the long term will have the last of the rains associated with the
remnants of Debby. The system, which will be exiting the area
Saturday afternoon will be quickly followed by high pressure which
ridges in from the Ohio Valley and remains into next week. Pops
which will still be likely/categorical Fri night will taper to
chance for Sat and further decrease Sat night. Flooding will still
be possible Fri night/early Sat since tropical moisture and decent
lift will be across the area.

Temperatures will be closer to normal, if not a few degrees below
normal, for the weekend and into next week. Mostly low/mid 80s for
highs with some 70s for the far N/W areas. Humidity levels will not
be oppressive either, so a welcome break from the very steamy
summer.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today-Tonight...Prevailing VFR conditions will remain
this afternoon, then Sub-VFR conditions are expected to return
as showers and thunderstorms develop across the area through
this afternoon into this evening and into the overnight. There
looks to be two windows for stronger storms. The first window is
between the 22z-02z period, then the second will likely move
across the area between 02-06z. Showers will be possible before
and after these windows, just likely not as severe. Otherwise,
prevailing MVFR conditions will move in by 02z, then IFR
conditions are expected by 10z. Winds will be variable across
northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, but remain south
to southwest around 5-10 knots through 02z elsewhere. Variable
winds are then expected for all sites overnight, then shift to
the east to northeast by daybreak. Low confidence in timing, but
high confidence that showers/thunderstorms and lower conditions
develop this afternoon into tonight

Wednesday...Off and on showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Wednesday with MVFR and IFR conditions expected. Winds
remain northeast to east 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night thru Saturday... Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions
during occasional/frequent showers and tstms. Late afternoon
and evening periods are favored. Fog possible during the
overnights.

Sat night thru Monday... VFR expected. Fog at times overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for portions of the
Atlantic Ocean coastal waters offshore of the central and
southern New Jersey coast for this afternoon and into this
evening as winds are expected to increase to 25 knots. For the
northern New Jersey waters, and Delaware waters, wind are
expected to remain below 25 knots.

Conditions are then expected to remain below advisory levels for
the rest of tonight through Wednesday.

VSBY restrictions in showers and thunderstorms starting this
afternoon and into tonight. The strongest thunderstorms will be
capable of wind gusts in excess of 40 kt and hail. The severe
thunderstorm threat diminishes tonight, but VSBY restrictions in
showers and scattered thunderstorms, with heavy rain being the
main culprit, are expected tonight through Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wed night... sub-SCA mostly with scattered showers and tstms.

Thu thru Sat... SCA conditions much of the time. Occasional showers
and tstms expected.

Sat night/Sunday... sub-SCA. Fair weather

Rip Currents...

Today...Southerly winds increase 10-20 mph during the afternoon with
breaking waves 2-3 feet. Southerly winds nearly parallel to the
shore for Monmouth County NJ and Delaware beaches; southerly winds
more onshore elsewhere. There is a MODERATE risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents for Atlantic, Ocean, Cape May Counties in
NJ and a LOW risk for Monmouth County NJ and Delaware beaches.

Wednesday...Breaking waves 2-3 feet for Ocean County NJ and
northwards, 1-2 feet southwards. Though winds will not be as strong
as Tuesday, they will be directly onshore through much of the
period. There is a MODERATE risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents for both the New Jersey Shore and the
Delaware beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ007>010-012-
     013-015-017>020-027.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NJZ001-007>010-
     012>020-026-027.
DE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ451>453.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Robertson
NEAR TERM...MPS/Robertson
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...OHara/Robertson
MARINE...OHara/Robertson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
346 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 SSW Mantoloking       40.01N 74.06W
08/06/2024  M48 MPH          Ocean              NJ   Mesonet

            WxFlow Site: Brick - XMLK.

&&

DeSilva

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
400 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 WNW Monmouth Beach    40.34N 73.99W
08/06/2024  M39 MPH          Monmouth           NJ   Mesonet

            WxFlow Site: Monmouth - XMNB.

&&

DeSilva