Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
630 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

All eyes are on today's forecast as all modes of severe weather
including flash flooding are anticipated across Middle
Tennessee. I'll be honest, things are very complex and not clear
cut, so it's imperative for everyone to be weather aware all day
today into tonight. This is not a "one and done" type of event.
Multiple thunderstorms at multiple parts of the day will have the
opportunity to be severe. If you are going to be out and about
today and tonight, it's imperative for you to check the weather
before heading out and have multiple ways to get notified when
warnings are issued.

Here's what we're confident on:
1) The potential for flash flooding has been increasing with each
model run and even though we didn't get much in the way of
rainfall on Tuesday, this system has the unfortunate opportunity
to place a boundary over Middle Tennessee where ample moisture
will allow thunderstorms to train over the same locations over and
over and over. This boundary will likely set up near or north of
I-40, but there's even a possibility that it sets up in Southern
Kentucky (and Middle Tennessee skirts away from the highest
precipitation totals). But wherever that boundary sets up, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will result.

2) There will be some impressive straight line winds along with
some potential QLCS tornadoes when the main/final line of storms
pushes through late tonight. There's definitely much more
uncertainty on how things unfold before this main line. Timing
things during the daylight hours is extremely difficult, but the
main line should move through after dark.

3) Lapse rates are also high so think any storm that develops
today through tonight will have the potential to produce large
hail.

4) Don't be fooled by any morning or early afternoon convection
being "the event" or limiting things. The main line coming through
tonight will pack quite the punch that won't care if you did or
didn't have storms earlier in the day.

Here's what we're not confident on:
1) Speaking of the boundary, exactly where this will set up will
be the million dollar question. Short range models are having a
difficult time initializing correctly over our area during this
overnight period, so confidence on how everything will exactly
play out today is not very high. Regardless, all the parameters
you always hear meteorologists spout off during big severe weather
events are all there with ample moisture, instability, and shear.

2) If discrete supercells can develop this afternoon and evening,
this would spell big trouble for the tornado threat and increase
the severe weather potential significantly. Think this concern is
mostly for the northern half of Middle Tennessee but once again,
it all depends on where exactly the above mentioned boundary sets
up.

It's Spring in Middle Tennessee. We want you to be prepared and
not scared. Today and tonight is when we need you to pay attention
to the weather as things will be rapidly evolving throughout the
day.

By Thursday morning, storms rapidly move south of Tennessee giving
way to drier conditions and partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Friday and this weekend look fairly nice weather wise as Highs in
the 70s and Lows in the 40s and 50s will be the main weather
story. There will be some northwest flow aloft and some model solutions
do have some weak upper level impulses swinging through the area.
Kept things dry for now, but would not be surprised to see some
increases in cloud cover and possible showers.

Another upper level trough will impact the area on Monday and
Tuesday as return flow brings the southerly flow and moisture
back. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast, but
nothing looks impactful at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Messy aviation forecast today with TSRA in the area through much
of the current TAF period. Current line of TSRA will likely begin
to stall around the I-40 corridor, so some vis impacts as that
line progresses. Rest of the day will have scattered TSRA, with
periods of low cigs/vis. Final line of TSRA will move through
around to after 03Z from NW to SE, with conditions beginning to
improve near to after the current TAF period. Winds will remain
predominately from the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  69  84  58 /  90  90  30  10
Clarksville    82  68  82  55 /  90  90  10  10
Crossville     79  63  78  53 /  90  80  60  20
Columbia       85  66  85  55 /  80  90  40  10
Cookeville     80  65  80  54 /  90  90  50  10
Jamestown      80  63  78  53 /  90  90  50  20
Lawrenceburg   84  66  84  56 /  70  90  40  20
Murfreesboro   85  66  84  55 /  90  80  40  10
Waverly        82  65  83  55 /  90  90  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Grundy-
Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-
Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-Williamson-
Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hurley
LONG TERM....Hurley
AVIATION.....Adcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
657 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

TNZ009-010-030-031-081230-
Clay TN-Jackson TN-Macon TN-Smith TN-
657 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL SMITH...NORTHERN
JACKSON...CLAY AND EASTERN MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 AM CDT...

At 656 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Red Boiling Springs to 6
miles south of Lafayette. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Celina, Gainesboro, Red Boiling Springs, Whitleyville,
Moss, and Bugtussle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 8551 3662 8541 3635 8552 3640 8598
      3642 8597 3643 8598 3644 8607 3663 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1156Z 276DEG 36KT 3661 8592 3643 8600

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
717 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

TNZ007-008-027-028-081245-
Robertson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-Sumner TN-
717 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER...NORTHWESTERN WILSON AND SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM CDT...

At 717 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goodlettsville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Lebanon, Madison, Hendersonville, Mount Juliet,
Goodlettsville, White House, Millersville, Greenbrier, Lakewood,
Ridgetop, Old Hickory, Joelton, Green Hill, Bledsoe Creek State Park,
and Whites Creek.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 near mile marker 234.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 91 and 105.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 35 and 42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8688 3644 8686 3645 8633 3618 8635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 273DEG 31KT 3635 8678

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
740 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     Hail             1 SSE Red Boiling Sprin 36.52N 85.85W
05/08/2024  E1.00 Inch       Macon              TN   Public

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
757 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 AM     Hail             7 WNW Livingston        36.41N 85.44W
05/08/2024  E1.75 Inch       Overton            TN   Public

&&

RRH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
757 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

TNZ008-028>030-081330-
Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-Smith TN-
757 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SMITH...SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER...
NORTHERN WILSON AND TROUSDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 830 AM CDT...

At 757 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Laguardo, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Lebanon, Carthage, Hartsville, Mount Juliet, Gordonsville,
Hickman, South Carthage, Tuckers Crossroads, Dixon Springs, Pleasant
Shade, Bledsoe Creek State Park, Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area,
and Green Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 230 and 263.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 75 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3641 8584 3610 8587 3610 8589 3611 8589
      3612 8591 3610 8591 3611 8593 3610 8595
      3611 8596 3609 8599 3620 8655 3646 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 1257Z 276DEG 35KT 3632 8633

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
837 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Livingston          36.39N 85.35W
05/08/2024                   Overton            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down on Walnut Grove Road.

0743 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Livingston          36.38N 85.33W
05/08/2024                   Overton            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down on west Main Street in
            Livingston.

&&

Shamburger