Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2024

Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 15, 2024Blue Earth County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this special weather statement at Jul 15, 2024, 6:05 AM CDT for Blue Earth County, Minnesota. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2024, 6:05 AM CDT (11:05 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2024, 6:45 AM CDT
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Twin Cities, MN
Hail: 0.88 in
Wind: 40

County Blue Earth County, MN

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1631 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1435 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 15, 2:45 AM CDT, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Severe weather possible this morning and Monday afternoon. Damaging wind is the primary threat, followed by hail. The risk for tornadoes is low.
Cooler and drier weather remains on track for the rest of the week.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 2:45 AM CDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
245 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather possible this morning and Monday afternoon.
  Damaging wind is the primary threat, followed by hail. The
  risk for tornadoes is low.

- Cooler and drier weather remains on track for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Current mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms
currently over eastern ND. This activity is traveling southeast with
an additional band of thunderstorms developing along a zone of
frontogenesis downstream. Using the HRRR, as it seems to have the
best handle on the current precip, this activity will reach western
MN around 4 AM and travel through southern MN by mid-morning. The
frontogenesis band of storms shouldn't be overly strong, but one or
two supercells from the original cluster will follow in their wake.
The most likely track of the supercells looks to be a line from MOX
to BDH to MKT and the primary hazards associated with these storms
will be large hail and damaging winds. To the east, garden variety
thunderstorms and showers should spread across eastern MN and into
western WI. Thus, expect at least a wet morning for most of the
region before a dry period follows by early this afternoon. Once the
rain exits, temperatures should climb into the low to mid 80s.
However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible
later this afternoon, mainly in southeastern MN and west-central WI,
as a cold front sags south. CAMs and the Storm Prediction Center
aren't too optimistic about severe weather with this round, but a
stray damaging wind gust or large hailstone can't be ruled out. This
precip will exit to our southeast by this evening.

Following the cold front, a much milder air mass and strong surface
high pressure will settle over the Upper Midwest. This will set us
up for a very comfortable and dry stretch of weather Monday night
through at least Friday. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will
generally be in the 70s, as 80s don't look to make a return until
next weekend. A few upper 40s could even occur in our rural areas
Wednesday night, highlighting the coolness of this mid-summer air
mass. Precipitation chances will remain very low until next weekend
when long-range forecast models start to show weak impulses within
the north-northwesterly upper-level flow passing through our region.
However, the subtleness of these features combined with their spread
of timing and placement between models provides low forecast
confidence of precip next weekend at this time. We are likely
heading into our first prolonged stretch of dry weather after today.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A cluster of thunderstorms currently over central ND will
continue southeast, reaching western MN most likely after 09Z
and continuing through southern MN . For AXN, RWF, STC, and MKT,
have replaced PROB30s with TEMPOs to account for this scenario.
To the east, less optimistic about strong convection farther
away from the best lift and instability so have opted go with a
multi-hour period of -SHRA this morning into the early
afternoon. For EAU, some MVFR fog also looks probable prior to
sunrise. Low-end VFR cigs will likely develop this afternoon as
a cold frontal passage occurs with another round of
thunderstorms possible in southeast MN and western WI. Have
added PROB30s for -TSRA at MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU to account for
this potential. Skies should clear this evening. Southeasterly
winds will turn more westerly as Monday progresses, exceeding 10
knots by the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will prevail this
evening behind the cold front.

KMSP...Opted to just have -SHRA from 12-16Z as greater
confidence in morning thunderstorms is farther west. Added
a PROB30 for this afternoon for possible -TSRA along the cold
front.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, Wind NW 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 3:11 AM CDT, 2 hours 54 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
160815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
311 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this morning across
western and central Minnesota. Damaging winds and large hail will
the be primary threats.

This afternoon an additional, but lower, chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop again across eastern Minnesota
into western Wisconsin, Damaging wind gusts are the primary
threat, followed by large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 3:18 AM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
318 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

MNZ054-056-150900-
Chippewa MN-Lac Qui Parle MN-
318 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE AND
NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

At 318 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bellingham, or 14 miles south of Ortonville, moving southeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Dawson, Watson, Boyd, Bellingham, Cerro Gordo, Madison
Airport, and Lac Qui Parle State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 14 and 31.
 U.S. Highway 75 between mile markers 105 and 122.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4508 9645 4521 9638 4504 9572 4480 9593
TIME...MOT...LOC 0818Z 297DEG 39KT 4511 9635

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CTG

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 4:40 AM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
440 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

WIZ023>028-151145-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, Durand,
Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire
440 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...Areas of patchy fog early today...

Areas of locally dense fog will reduce visibility to one mile or
less in spots early this morning, especially in low lying areas
and in river valleys. If driving, slow down, use low beam
headlights, and be prepared for rapid changes in visibility.

BPH

Local storm report, Jul 15, 4:41 AM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
441 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     Hail             1 W Granite Falls       44.81N 95.55W
07/15/2024  E1.25 Inch       Yellow Medicine    MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:16 AM CDT, 49 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
516 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 AM     Hail             Redwood Falls           44.54N 95.12W
07/15/2024  E1.25 Inch       Redwood            MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

BPH

Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:29 AM CDT, 36 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
529 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 AM     Hail             Morgan                  44.42N 94.93W
07/15/2024  M1.25 Inch       Redwood            MN   Trained Spotter

&&

BPH

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 6:05 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
605 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

MNZ074-082-083-151145-
Brown MN-Blue Earth MN-Watonwan MN-
605 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...
SOUTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH AND NORTHEASTERN WATONWAN COUNTIES THROUGH
645 AM CDT...

At 605 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hanska, or 8 miles south of New Ulm, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Crystal, Madelia, Good Thunder, Hanska, Vernon Center, Garden
City, and Searles.

This includes U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 29 and 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9460 4427 9449 4406 9396 4385 9422
      4385 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 1105Z 308DEG 34KT 4419 9450

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CTG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 3:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Lac qui Parle	42 min
Jul 15, 3:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Lac qui Parle	32 min
Jul 15, 3:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Chippewa, Lac qui Parle, Yellow Medicine	34 min
Jul 15, 4:18 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Chippewa, Redwood, Renville, Yellow Medicine	42 min
Jul 15, 4:40 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Lac qui Parle	50 min
Jul 15, 4:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Brown, Redwood, Renville	37 min
Jul 15, 5:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Brown, Redwood	33 min
Jul 15, 5:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Stevens	46 min
Jul 15, 6:17 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Swift	43 min
Jul 15, 6:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Stevens, Swift	30 min
Jul 15, 6:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Chippewa, Kandiyohi, Swift	37 min
Jul 15, 7:14 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Chippewa, Kandiyohi, Renville	31 min
Jul 15, 7:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Watonwan	43 min
Jul 15, 7:39 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	MPX	Kandiyohi, Renville	51 min
Jul 15, 8:05 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Faribault	40 min
Jul 15, 10:07 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	MPX	Redwood, Renville	3 days

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2024 Every special weather statement in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.