Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Twin Cities, MN

574 
WWUS53 KMPX 150902
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
402 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

MNC023-073-173-150930-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-240715T0930Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Chippewa MN-Yellow Medicine MN-
402 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAC QUI PARLE...SOUTH CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND
NORTHEASTERN YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES...

At 401 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Montevideo,
moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Montevideo, Granite Falls, Maynard, Hazel Run, and Montevideo
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4490 9595 4501 9585 4491 9547 4470 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 297DEG 37KT 4491 9580 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

CTG

289 
WWUS53 KMPX 150914
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
414 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

MNC073-150924-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-240715T0930Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-
414 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAC QUI PARLE
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4486 9580 4490 9576 4490 9574 4492 9574
      4496 9570 4491 9547 4471 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0914Z 297DEG 37KT 4485 9563 

$$

MNC023-173-150930-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-240715T0930Z/
Chippewa MN-Yellow Medicine MN-
414 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND NORTHEASTERN YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTIES...

At 414 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Granite Falls,
or 8 miles southeast of Montevideo, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Montevideo, Granite Falls, and Maynard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4486 9580 4490 9576 4490 9574 4492 9574
      4496 9570 4491 9547 4471 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0914Z 297DEG 37KT 4485 9563 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CTG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
245 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather possible this morning and Monday afternoon.
  Damaging wind is the primary threat, followed by hail. The
  risk for tornadoes is low.

- Cooler and drier weather remains on track for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Current mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms
currently over eastern ND. This activity is traveling southeast with
an additional band of thunderstorms developing along a zone of
frontogenesis downstream. Using the HRRR, as it seems to have the
best handle on the current precip, this activity will reach western
MN around 4 AM and travel through southern MN by mid-morning. The
frontogenesis band of storms shouldn't be overly strong, but one or
two supercells from the original cluster will follow in their wake.
The most likely track of the supercells looks to be a line from MOX
to BDH to MKT and the primary hazards associated with these storms
will be large hail and damaging winds. To the east, garden variety
thunderstorms and showers should spread across eastern MN and into
western WI. Thus, expect at least a wet morning for most of the
region before a dry period follows by early this afternoon. Once the
rain exits, temperatures should climb into the low to mid 80s.
However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible
later this afternoon, mainly in southeastern MN and west-central WI,
as a cold front sags south. CAMs and the Storm Prediction Center
aren't too optimistic about severe weather with this round, but a
stray damaging wind gust or large hailstone can't be ruled out. This
precip will exit to our southeast by this evening.

Following the cold front, a much milder air mass and strong surface
high pressure will settle over the Upper Midwest. This will set us
up for a very comfortable and dry stretch of weather Monday night
through at least Friday. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will
generally be in the 70s, as 80s don't look to make a return until
next weekend. A few upper 40s could even occur in our rural areas
Wednesday night, highlighting the coolness of this mid-summer air
mass. Precipitation chances will remain very low until next weekend
when long-range forecast models start to show weak impulses within
the north-northwesterly upper-level flow passing through our region.
However, the subtleness of these features combined with their spread
of timing and placement between models provides low forecast
confidence of precip next weekend at this time. We are likely
heading into our first prolonged stretch of dry weather after today.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A cluster of thunderstorms currently over central ND will
continue southeast, reaching western MN most likely after 09Z
and continuing through southern MN . For AXN, RWF, STC, and MKT,
have replaced PROB30s with TEMPOs to account for this scenario.
To the east, less optimistic about strong convection farther
away from the best lift and instability so have opted go with a
multi-hour period of -SHRA this morning into the early
afternoon. For EAU, some MVFR fog also looks probable prior to
sunrise. Low-end VFR cigs will likely develop this afternoon as
a cold frontal passage occurs with another round of
thunderstorms possible in southeast MN and western WI. Have
added PROB30s for -TSRA at MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU to account for
this potential. Skies should clear this evening. Southeasterly
winds will turn more westerly as Monday progresses, exceeding 10
knots by the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will prevail this
evening behind the cold front.

KMSP...Opted to just have -SHRA from 12-16Z as greater
confidence in morning thunderstorms is farther west. Added
a PROB30 for this afternoon for possible -TSRA along the cold
front.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, Wind NW 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
160815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
311 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this morning across
western and central Minnesota. Damaging winds and large hail will
the be primary threats.

This afternoon an additional, but lower, chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop again across eastern Minnesota
into western Wisconsin, Damaging wind gusts are the primary
threat, followed by large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
318 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

MNZ054-056-150900-
Chippewa MN-Lac Qui Parle MN-
318 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE AND
NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

At 318 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bellingham, or 14 miles south of Ortonville, moving southeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Dawson, Watson, Boyd, Bellingham, Cerro Gordo, Madison
Airport, and Lac Qui Parle State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 14 and 31.
 U.S. Highway 75 between mile markers 105 and 122.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4508 9645 4521 9638 4504 9572 4480 9593
TIME...MOT...LOC 0818Z 297DEG 39KT 4511 9635

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CTG