Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1242 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this weekend with the potential for several
  rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through Monday
  afternoon.

- Slight Risk (2 of 5) of Severe Weather through this evening
  and overnight.

- Looking ahead, cooler, drier pattern Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Today and Tonight - Satellite imagery shows multiple vorticity
maxes rotating through zonal westerly flow over the Upper
Midwest this afternoon. Radar imagery shows the ongoing showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota pushing
into west- central Wisconsin, with this trend continuing for the
next couple of hours. Most other areas remain dry into the
evening hours today. A surface trough dragging through North
Dakota is expected to initiate a round of strong to scattered
severe thunderstorms in northwest and north-central Minnesota
later this afternoon. Uncertainty in exact location remains,
but the high- res model guidance continues to suggest some sort
of congealing of discrete storms into another MCS later tonight
as the complex moves out of the Brainerd Lakes region of north-
central Minnesota and into central and east- central Minnesota.
This places the best severe storm chances still near and north
of the Interstate 94 corridor. The primary hazard from any MCS
complex would be damaging winds, although initial storms may
briefly support large hail and a potential for a tornado or two
before becoming an outflow dominant MCS. The storm complex moves
into west- central Wisconsin closer to the 11 PM to 1 AM hour
early tonight. Heavy rain will accompany these storms given the
high PW values associated with the hot and humid airmass.
However, the mid- level flow should be fast enough to limit
flooding concerns.

Sunday - The heat will continue on Sunday as high temperatures
rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the low to mid
70s. The Twin Cities metro Heat Advisory continues through
Sunday evening. Attention turns to the threat of severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center keeps a Slight Risk over west-
central and central Minnesota. Elsewhere, a Marginal (1 of 5)
risk exists with the primary hazard of damaging winds. Sunday
will be another day with strong instability present across the
Upper Midwest given the 70+ degree dew point temperatures.
Current guidance keeps a strong cap in the mid-levels tomorrow
so the previous drier trend noted this morning keeps hold in the
latest forecast. Another complex drops southward from the
Northern Plains Sunday night so expect continued severe
thunderstorm chances into the end of this weekend, especially
for those overnight camping. Sunday night will be another warm
night with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Monday - Temperatures decrease slightly on Monday with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, although high dew points
linger. An incoming cold front Monday afternoon along an axis of
high precipitable water could promote scattered strong
thunderstorms within an axis of moderate instability upwards of
1500 J/kg. The disorganized shear creates a lot of uncertainty
though in the storm mode, but with a general east-southeasterly
mean flow. Isolated strong thunderstorms may form into a severe
potential if that instability axis lines up with the cold front
and the higher-end mid-level lapse rates don’t move too far off
the primary forcing. The best chances are in the Twin Cities
Metro to Mankato and southeastward where the SPC highlights a
Slight Risk (⅖) and the rest of the CWA has chances of isolated
storms.

Tuesday through Friday - A northern stream cold front from
central Canada dives southward Monday to bring a cooler & drier
air mass for the remainder of the week. Forecast high
temperatures are in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Chances of
precipitation decrease later this week as well under this
northerly flow, but end-of-week shower chances do return Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Clusters of thunderstorms currently stretch from east-central MN
into western WI. These storms will move east-southeast affecting
MSP, RNH, EAU, and possibly MKT over the next couple of hours.
Visibilities will reduce to at least MVFR while northwesterly
winds could gust up to 30-40 knots during any storms. After the
storms, cigs look to drop to MVFR in west-central WI with some
patchy fog also developing during early Sunday morning.
Afterwards, VFR conditions will prevail area wide for the rest
of the period.

KMSP...A line of strong thunderstorms will reach MSP by 06Z and
exit by 08Z. IFR visibilities are likely with winds gusting to
at least 40 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, Wind NW 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...CTG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
830 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
150130-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
830 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Another round of thunderstorms will move in from the northwest
tonight. Wind will be the main threat, but hail is possible as
well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hot, humid, and potentially stormy tomorrow. Heat index values
climb into the mid to upper 90s.

Additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms through
early next week, with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the
primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

MNZ051-052-061-140630-
Anoka MN-Isanti MN-Sherburne MN-
1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ANOKA...SOUTHWESTERN
ISANTI AND EASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 1247 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Zimmerman, or 18 miles southwest of Cambridge, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coon Rapids, Andover, Ramsey, Elk River, Anoka, Ham Lake, Otsego,
East Bethel, St. Francis, Zimmerman, Princeton, and Oak Grove.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 210 and 217.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 159 and 177.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4532 9311 4516 9334 4521 9342 4524 9352
      4527 9355 4530 9357 4529 9358 4530 9363
      4546 9378 4556 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0547Z 313DEG 30KT 4542 9359

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
101 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

WIZ024>026-028-140645-
Pierce WI-Dunn WI-Eau Claire WI-Pepin WI-
101 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PEPIN...NORTHEASTERN PIERCE...
SOUTHERN DUNN AND SOUTHWESTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM
CDT...

At 101 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Eau Galle, or 16 miles southwest of Menomonie,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Durand, Elmwood, Eau Galle, Plum City, Weston, Rock Falls, Arkansaw,
Caryville, Downsville, and Porcupine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4460 9156 4460 9200 4458 9203 4455 9204
      4462 9226 4486 9217 4475 9150
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 277DEG 31KT 4470 9208

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
102 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     Hail             2 S Oakdale             44.96N 92.96W
07/14/2024  E1.75 Inch       Washington         MN   Public

            Hail started around 11:50pm, progressively
            got bigger to golf ball size hail.

&&

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
106 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     Hail             2 ESE Monticello        45.29N 93.77W
07/14/2024  M2.00 Inch       Wright             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
108 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

MNZ069-070-076>078-140700-
Le Sueur MN-Dakota MN-Rice MN-Goodhue MN-Scott MN-
108 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DAKOTA...LE SUEUR...
SCOTT...WEST CENTRAL GOODHUE AND RICE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM CDT...

At 108 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 6 miles northeast of New Prague, or 20 miles northwest
of Northfield, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Faribault, Northfield, Bloomington, Burnsville, Lakeville, Apple
Valley, Shakopee, Savage, Prior Lake, Farmington, New Prague, and
Belle Plaine.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 53 and 80.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 82 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4454 9388 4480 9341 4478 9338 4480 9330
      4453 9282 4424 9317 4419 9356 4420 9367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0608Z 323DEG 38KT 4462 9351

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BPH