Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Twin Cities, MN

125 
WWUS53 KMPX 140539
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1239 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

MNC163-WIC109-140548-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-240714T0545Z/
Washington MN-St. Croix WI-
1239 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN ST. CROIX COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, small
hail and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
east central Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4486 9265 4486 9272 4492 9299 4501 9299
      4501 9298 4504 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 277DEG 18KT 4494 9274 

$$

BPH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
709 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this weekend with the potential for several
  rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through Monday
  afternoon.

- Slight Risk (2 of 5) of Severe Weather through this evening
  and overnight.

- Looking ahead, cooler, drier pattern Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Today and Tonight - Satellite imagery shows multiple vorticity
maxes rotating through zonal westerly flow over the Upper
Midwest this afternoon. Radar imagery shows the ongoing showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota pushing
into west- central Wisconsin, with this trend continuing for the
next couple of hours. Most other areas remain dry into the
evening hours today. A surface trough dragging through North
Dakota is expected to initiate a round of strong to scattered
severe thunderstorms in northwest and north-central Minnesota
later this afternoon. Uncertainty in exact location remains,
but the high- res model guidance continues to suggest some sort
of congealing of discrete storms into another MCS later tonight
as the complex moves out of the Brainerd Lakes region of north-
central Minnesota and into central and east- central Minnesota.
This places the best severe storm chances still near and north
of the Interstate 94 corridor. The primary hazard from any MCS
complex would be damaging winds, although initial storms may
briefly support large hail and a potential for a tornado or two
before becoming an outflow dominant MCS. The storm complex moves
into west- central Wisconsin closer to the 11 PM to 1 AM hour
early tonight. Heavy rain will accompany these storms given the
high PW values associated with the hot and humid airmass.
However, the mid- level flow should be fast enough to limit
flooding concerns.

Sunday - The heat will continue on Sunday as high temperatures
rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the low to mid
70s. The Twin Cities metro Heat Advisory continues through
Sunday evening. Attention turns to the threat of severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center keeps a Slight Risk over west-
central and central Minnesota. Elsewhere, a Marginal (1 of 5)
risk exists with the primary hazard of damaging winds. Sunday
will be another day with strong instability present across the
Upper Midwest given the 70+ degree dew point temperatures.
Current guidance keeps a strong cap in the mid-levels tomorrow
so the previous drier trend noted this morning keeps hold in the
latest forecast. Another complex drops southward from the
Northern Plains Sunday night so expect continued severe
thunderstorm chances into the end of this weekend, especially
for those overnight camping. Sunday night will be another warm
night with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Monday - Temperatures decrease slightly on Monday with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, although high dew points
linger. An incoming cold front Monday afternoon along an axis of
high precipitable water could promote scattered strong
thunderstorms within an axis of moderate instability upwards of
1500 J/kg. The disorganized shear creates a lot of uncertainty
though in the storm mode, but with a general east-southeasterly
mean flow. Isolated strong thunderstorms may form into a severe
potential if that instability axis lines up with the cold front
and the higher-end mid-level lapse rates don’t move too far off
the primary forcing. The best chances are in the Twin Cities
Metro to Mankato and southeastward where the SPC highlights a
Slight Risk (⅖) and the rest of the CWA has chances of isolated
storms.

Tuesday through Friday - A northern stream cold front from
central Canada dives southward Monday to bring a cooler & drier
air mass for the remainder of the week. Forecast high
temperatures are in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Chances of
precipitation decrease later this week as well under this
northerly flow, but end-of-week shower chances do return Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Thunderstorm activity has moved out of the region early this
evening, with mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 2-4
hours. Another round of storms is currently developing over NW
Minnesota, which is expected to develop into a line and travel
southeastward through portions of central/eastern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. Main impacts with any storms would be strong
wind gusts and reduced visibility from heavy rain. Current
trends favor a later arrival, with the line reaching central MN
between 02-04z and eastern MN by 04-06z. There is low confidence
on how long the line will stay organized as it travels into
western Wisconsin. Some patches of fog are possible early
tomorrow morning after the line of storms moves through. VFR
conditions expected tomorrow with skies clearing and light N/NW
winds prevailing.

KMSP... Most likely timing of arrival has shifted later into the
night, around 04-06z. This line of storms should last a couple
of hours at most as it quickly travels southeastward. Gusty
thunderstorm winds and reduced visibilities are possible with
the strongest convection. There is a small chance that the
strongest part of the line stays NE of the terminal, potentially
limiting impacts. After the line moves through, winds will
shift out of the NW at 5-10kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, Wind NW 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Chippewa-
     Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-
     Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-
     Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...NYL/WFO DLH
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
830 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
150130-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
830 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Another round of thunderstorms will move in from the northwest
tonight. Wind will be the main threat, but hail is possible as
well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hot, humid, and potentially stormy tomorrow. Heat index values
climb into the mid to upper 90s.

Additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms through
early next week, with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the
primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     Hail             1 SE Clearwater         45.41N 94.04W
07/13/2024  M1.00 Inch       Wright             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1145 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNZ049-051-058-059-140530-
Sherburne MN-Stearns MN-Meeker MN-Wright MN-
1145 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WRIGHT...
NORTHEASTERN MEEKER...NORTHWESTERN SHERBURNE AND SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS
COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1145 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rockville, or 8 miles southwest of St. Cloud, moving southeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Cloud, Monticello, Big Lake, Waite Park, Becker, Cold Spring,
Annandale, Rockville, Maple Lake, Clearwater, Watkins, and Kimball.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 164 and 192.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 184 and 201.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4535 9462 4554 9424 4544 9370 4518 9391
      4513 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 315DEG 38KT 4543 9427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1155 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     Hail             2 S Holdingford         45.70N 94.47W
07/13/2024  E1.25 Inch       Stearns            MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

NDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     Hail             1 NW Becker             45.40N 93.88W
07/13/2024  E1.00 Inch       Sherburne          MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

NDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1201 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     Hail             2 SW Sartell            45.60N 94.24W
07/13/2024  E1.00 Inch       Stearns            MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

NDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1205 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 E St. Cloud           45.55N 94.05W
07/13/2024  M49 MPH          Sherburne          MN   ASOS

            ASOS station KSTC St. Cloud AP.

&&

NDC