Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
709 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this weekend with the potential for several
  rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through Monday
  afternoon.

- Slight Risk (2 of 5) of Severe Weather through this evening
  and overnight.

- Looking ahead, cooler, drier pattern Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Today and Tonight - Satellite imagery shows multiple vorticity
maxes rotating through zonal westerly flow over the Upper
Midwest this afternoon. Radar imagery shows the ongoing showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota pushing
into west- central Wisconsin, with this trend continuing for the
next couple of hours. Most other areas remain dry into the
evening hours today. A surface trough dragging through North
Dakota is expected to initiate a round of strong to scattered
severe thunderstorms in northwest and north-central Minnesota
later this afternoon. Uncertainty in exact location remains,
but the high- res model guidance continues to suggest some sort
of congealing of discrete storms into another MCS later tonight
as the complex moves out of the Brainerd Lakes region of north-
central Minnesota and into central and east- central Minnesota.
This places the best severe storm chances still near and north
of the Interstate 94 corridor. The primary hazard from any MCS
complex would be damaging winds, although initial storms may
briefly support large hail and a potential for a tornado or two
before becoming an outflow dominant MCS. The storm complex moves
into west- central Wisconsin closer to the 11 PM to 1 AM hour
early tonight. Heavy rain will accompany these storms given the
high PW values associated with the hot and humid airmass.
However, the mid- level flow should be fast enough to limit
flooding concerns.

Sunday - The heat will continue on Sunday as high temperatures
rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the low to mid
70s. The Twin Cities metro Heat Advisory continues through
Sunday evening. Attention turns to the threat of severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center keeps a Slight Risk over west-
central and central Minnesota. Elsewhere, a Marginal (1 of 5)
risk exists with the primary hazard of damaging winds. Sunday
will be another day with strong instability present across the
Upper Midwest given the 70+ degree dew point temperatures.
Current guidance keeps a strong cap in the mid-levels tomorrow
so the previous drier trend noted this morning keeps hold in the
latest forecast. Another complex drops southward from the
Northern Plains Sunday night so expect continued severe
thunderstorm chances into the end of this weekend, especially
for those overnight camping. Sunday night will be another warm
night with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Monday - Temperatures decrease slightly on Monday with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, although high dew points
linger. An incoming cold front Monday afternoon along an axis of
high precipitable water could promote scattered strong
thunderstorms within an axis of moderate instability upwards of
1500 J/kg. The disorganized shear creates a lot of uncertainty
though in the storm mode, but with a general east-southeasterly
mean flow. Isolated strong thunderstorms may form into a severe
potential if that instability axis lines up with the cold front
and the higher-end mid-level lapse rates don’t move too far off
the primary forcing. The best chances are in the Twin Cities
Metro to Mankato and southeastward where the SPC highlights a
Slight Risk (⅖) and the rest of the CWA has chances of isolated
storms.

Tuesday through Friday - A northern stream cold front from
central Canada dives southward Monday to bring a cooler & drier
air mass for the remainder of the week. Forecast high
temperatures are in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Chances of
precipitation decrease later this week as well under this
northerly flow, but end-of-week shower chances do return Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Thunderstorm activity has moved out of the region early this
evening, with mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 2-4
hours. Another round of storms is currently developing over NW
Minnesota, which is expected to develop into a line and travel
southeastward through portions of central/eastern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. Main impacts with any storms would be strong
wind gusts and reduced visibility from heavy rain. Current
trends favor a later arrival, with the line reaching central MN
between 02-04z and eastern MN by 04-06z. There is low confidence
on how long the line will stay organized as it travels into
western Wisconsin. Some patches of fog are possible early
tomorrow morning after the line of storms moves through. VFR
conditions expected tomorrow with skies clearing and light N/NW
winds prevailing.

KMSP... Most likely timing of arrival has shifted later into the
night, around 04-06z. This line of storms should last a couple
of hours at most as it quickly travels southeastward. Gusty
thunderstorm winds and reduced visibilities are possible with
the strongest convection. There is a small chance that the
strongest part of the line stays NE of the terminal, potentially
limiting impacts. After the line moves through, winds will
shift out of the NW at 5-10kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, Wind NW 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Chippewa-
     Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-
     Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-
     Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...NYL/WFO DLH
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
830 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
150130-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
830 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Another round of thunderstorms will move in from the northwest
tonight. Wind will be the main threat, but hail is possible as
well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hot, humid, and potentially stormy tomorrow. Heat index values
climb into the mid to upper 90s.

Additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms through
early next week, with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the
primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1055 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Alexandria         45.87N 95.40W
07/13/2024  M56 MPH          Douglas            MN   ASOS

            ASOS station KAXN Alexandria MN ASOS.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1059 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 PM     Hail             Miltona                 46.04N 95.29W
07/13/2024  M1.50 Inch       Douglas            MN   Public

            Via social media.

&&

NDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1106 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ESE Round Prairie     45.90N 94.87W
07/13/2024  M49 MPH          Todd               MN   AWOS

            AWOS station K14Y Long Prairie AP.

&&

NDC

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1136 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     Hail             1 SE Clearwater         45.40N 94.04W
07/13/2024  M1.75 Inch       Wright             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1139 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNZ048-049-140515-
Stearns MN-Pope MN-
1139 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN POPE AND
NORTHWESTERN STEARNS COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1139 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 6 miles southwest of Melrose, or 28 miles southeast of
Alexandria, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sauk Centre, Melrose, Glenwood, Albany, Freeport, New Munich, Grove
Lake, Villard, Greenwald, Elrosa, Meire Grove, and Spring Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 127 and 147.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 152 and 168.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central and west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4555 9540 4571 9535 4575 9458 4544 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 268DEG 31KT 4563 9492

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BPH