Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
647 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Our long anticipated severe weather/heavy rain event is finally
underway with local 88Ds showing a cluster of very slow moving
thunderstorms covering interior sern TX/cntl LA with various ob
networks showing up to 8 inches of rain having fallen across this
area. Meanwhile, regional 88Ds show a developing line of storms
approaching Houston metro which is progged to further strengthen and
sweep into/across the forecast area later this morning. Special 04z
KLCH sounding showed reasonable helicity to go along with good
CAPE/shear and exceptional moisture, thus all modes of severe remain
in play through the event. And accordingly, SPC has now issued a
Tornado Watch for the entire forecast area valid til 09L/14z.

In addition, no changes are planned to going hazards (Flood
Watch/Wind Advisory) based on latest guidance.

After this initial round of convection departs the region,
expecting another round, although with far less coverage, of
showers/storms associated with the advancing stacked low/sfc
frontal boundary to cross later this afternoon.

Once the afternoon precip exits the area, dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the short term period as a nwrly
flow aloft behind the departing shortwave gradually transitions
to a more wrly flow, while sfc high pressure builds over the
region. An initial burst of post-frontal cooler weather will
gradually moderate.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Slim rain chances return to the forecast for Tuesday as another
mid/upper-level shortwave combines with a limited moisture return
off the Gulf to produce widely scattered showers and storms over
our extreme nrn zones. Otherwise, the long term period of the
forecast looks to be dry.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

No significant changes to previous TAF thinking...

25

(Little change to the overall forecast thinking since the
previous package. Still expected a large swath of heavy rain and
thunderstorms to move across the region over the next 12 hours or
so, bringing frequent lighting, gusty/damaging winds, low
ceilings, and reduced VIS to all terminals. Conditions will begin
to improve west to east through the late morning into the early
afternoon. Some light showers will be possible through the
afternoon after the main threat is over however, these showers
aren't expected to pose many issues. Conditions will improve
quickly from the afternoon into the evening hours.

17)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Extended the SCA on all of our waters based on latest guidance
this morning.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  53  75  47 / 100  10   0   0
LCH  78  56  77  51 /  90   0   0   0
LFT  80  59  77  53 / 100   0   0   0
BPT  79  54  79  53 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ027>033.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ033-044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ073-
     074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ252>254.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ515-516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
725 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     Flash Flood      2 NW Colmesneil         30.93N 94.45W
04/10/2024                   Tyler              TX   Dept of Highways

            FM 1745 Closed.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
727 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 AM     Flash Flood      7 NW Town Bluff         30.86N 94.27W
04/10/2024                   Tyler              TX   Dept of Highways

            FM 256 Closed.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
728 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 AM     Flash Flood      6 NW Town Bluff         30.86N 94.24W
04/10/2024                   Tyler              TX   Dept of Highways

            FM 92 North of HWY 190 closed.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
732 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 AM     Flash Flood      3 W Warren              30.62N 94.46W
04/10/2024                   Tyler              TX   Dept of Highways

            FM 1943 Closed.

&&

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