Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1028 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Somewhat of a busy evening as clusters of storms have been
developing along a 85H theta-e convergence zone that has stretched
across from Toledo Bend down to Galveston. A very moist and highly
sheared environment with just enough instability and steep mid
level lapse rates to have strong to severe storms with high
rainfall rates to continue to move across this area.

Recently area is beginning to lift northward, most likely
beginning to feel the affects of the upper level system that is
moving in from central Texas. Super cells with this system are
expected to congeal into a squall line feature that will barrel
into the forecast area overnight into Wednesday morning with the
severe and flood threat continuing.

We will be launching a balloon here shortly for a 05z special
upper release to better sample the current environment.

No changes at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A very active scenario is anticipated tonight through Wednesday
as a strong storm system moves across the region.

After a morning of very gusty winds along the I-10 corridor south
of a weak boundary winds have calmed to under 20kts. Beaumont and
Lake Charles were both gusting over 45kts for a short period while
locations such as DeRidder were under 10. The wind adv has been
cancelled early.

A cold front is roughly stretching from SW Texas across Northern
Arkansas to the Great Lakes this afternoon with a warm and humid
air mass in place toward the Gulf Coast. A vigorous upper low is
near El Paso with upper divergence well ahead of the system
providing support for convection in East TX. A surface low is also
noted south of the TX Hill Country.

Through this evening convection over East TX will continue
east with some potentially moving into the local region. SVR WX
is not out of the question with this initial round, however
early tomorrow is the main show.

Wednesday morning aforementioned upper low and surface low will
continue east with best dynamics moving into SE TX and LA. Another
round of convection is expected to develop. Ample cape, low lvl
moisture, and srh will combined to produce a threat of all modes
of SVR WX including excessive rainfall. Guidance indicates a QLCS
with individual cells ahead of the line developing early Wed and
sweeping through the region by afternoon. Areas most likely to be
impacted are locations north of I-10 and generally east of the
Sabine, however the whole region has a risk of severe wx.
Training of cells is most likely across the lakes through Cen LA
with a flood watch already in effect. 2-6 inches will be possible
with localized higher amounts. Lesser amounts are anticipated
closer the I-10 corridor to the coast.

Gusty south to southeast winds are expected ahead of the squall
line with tides running 1 to 2 feet above MHHW at high tide. A
coastal flood adv has been issued for the coastal areas. The tide
lvls may still be running high at the time of the 2nd high tide in
the afternoon across south central LA.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front Wednesday night
into Thursday with gusty northwest winds expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

High pressure will move across the region Friday then shift east
of the area for the weekend. While cool and slightly below normal
temperatures may occur Friday morning, warming and moistening is
expected as the ridge departs and the onshore flow resumes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A messy weather pattern bringing all modes of hazards (wind/low
ceilings/reduced vis/etc.) will persist through the forecast
period, with conditions improving through the later half of
tomorrow. For tonight, mainly scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms are expected, with both showers and thunderstorms
likely continuing to cause some reductions in VIS overnight. MVFR
to IFR ceilings and occasional gusts will continue as well. Early
tomorrow prior to sunrise a squall line will take shape to our
west and eject west to east across the region. This will result in
several hours of heavy rain, strong gusty winds, low ceilings,
reduced VIS, as well as the potential for hail and tornadoes.
Conditions will improve west to east through the afternoon and
evening hours.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A tight pressure gradient will continue to produce moderate to
strong south/southeast winds into Wednesday ahead of line of
thunderstorms that will sweep through during the morning and
afternoon. High pressure will build in Wednesday night into
Thursday with strong offshore winds expected. Light winds are
anticipated by Friday as high pressure moves overhead then to the
east of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  80  53  74 /  90  90  10   0
LCH  69  80  56  76 /  80  80   0   0
LFT  72  81  59  76 /  60  90   0   0
BPT  69  82  55  78 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ027>033.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 2 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ252>254.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ515-516-615-
     616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 2 PM CDT Wednesday for
     TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ435-
     436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
826 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

TXZ180-201-100215-
Hardin TX-Tyler TX-
826 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TYLER AND HARDIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 826 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Batson, or near Saratoga, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lumberton, Silsbee, Kountze, Saratoga, Thicket, Wildwood, Caney Head,
Batson, Votaw, Honey Island, and Village Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3053 9454 3057 9416 3033 9410
      3028 9412 3026 9411 3026 9410 3024 9412
      3022 9412 3016 9461 3049 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 242DEG 24KT 3031 9461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
847 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

TXZ180-259-100245-
Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
847 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN TYLER AND NORTHEASTERN
JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 847 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spurger, or 8 miles northwest of Fred, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Town Bluff, and Spurger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 9420 3054 9439 3101 9424 3091 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 208DEG 17KT 3068 9426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
920 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

TXZ180-201-261-100315-
Hardin TX-Southern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
920 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TYLER AND
NORTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...

At 919 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Honey Island, or 7 miles south of Wildwood, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kountze, Saratoga, Fred, Wildwood, Spurger, Caney Head, Batson, Honey
Island, and Village Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9421 3060 9408 3058 9409 3056 9409
      3053 9407 3052 9402 3017 9453 3028 9466
      3034 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 232DEG 17KT 3041 9444

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1016 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

LAZ030-TXZ259-260-100400-
Beauregard LA-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
1016 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD
PARISH...CENTRAL NEWTON AND EAST CENTRAL JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 1100
PM CDT...

At 1016 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Call, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Kirbyville, Merryville, Call, Bon Weir, Trout Creek, Bivens,
Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Jamestown, Roganville, Bancroft,
Bleakwood, and Wiergate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3053 9394 3075 9406 3104 9372 3060 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 249DEG 26KT 3063 9390

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1057 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

LAZ027-030-100500-
Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-
1057 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN BEAUREGARD AND
SOUTHWESTERN VERNON PARISHES THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1057 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Bon Weir, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
De Ridder, Leesville, Rosepine, Merryville, Singer, Fort Johnson,
Slagle, New Llano, Bivens, Burr Ferry, Tulla, Junction, Evans,
Pickering, and Bundick Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 9306 3058 9369 3064 9368 3068 9363
      3076 9361 3077 9359 3083 9355 3088 9357
      3090 9355 3092 9355 3093 9353 3096 9353
      3097 9357 3101 9357 3101 9354 3103 9351
      3105 9353 3107 9353 3109 9355 3123 9311
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 243DEG 32KT 3077 9361

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rua

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