Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
636 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A very active scenario is anticipated tonight through Wednesday
as a strong storm system moves across the region.

After a morning of very gusty winds along the I-10 corridor south
of a weak boundary winds have calmed to under 20kts. Beaumont and
Lake Charles were both gusting over 45kts for a short period while
locations such as DeRidder were under 10. The wind adv has been
cancelled early.

A cold front is roughly stretching from SW Texas across Northern
Arkansas to the Great Lakes this afternoon with a warm and humid
air mass in place toward the Gulf Coast. A vigorous upper low is
near El Paso with upper divergence well ahead of the system
providing support for convection in East TX. A surface low is also
noted south of the TX Hill Country.

Through this evening convection over East TX will continue
east with some potentially moving into the local region. SVR WX
is not out of the question with this initial round, however
early tomorrow is the main show.

Wednesday morning aforementioned upper low and surface low will
continue east with best dynamics moving into SE TX and LA. Another
round of convection is expected to develop. Ample cape, low lvl
moisture, and srh will combined to produce a threat of all modes
of SVR WX including excessive rainfall. Guidance indicates a QLCS
with individual cells ahead of the line developing early Wed and
sweeping through the region by afternoon. Areas most likely to be
impacted are locations north of I-10 and generally east of the
Sabine, however the whole region has a risk of severe wx.
Training of cells is most likely across the lakes through Cen LA
with a flood watch already in effect. 2-6 inches will be possible
with localized higher amounts. Lesser amounts are anticipated
closer the I-10 corridor to the coast.

Gusty south to southeast winds are expected ahead of the squall
line with tides running 1 to 2 feet above MHHW at high tide. A
coastal flood adv has been issued for the coastal areas. The tide
lvls may still be running high at the time of the 2nd high tide in
the afternoon across south central LA.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front Wednesday night
into Thursday with gusty northwest winds expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

High pressure will move across the region Friday then shift east
of the area for the weekend. While cool and slightly below normal
temperatures may occur Friday morning, warming and moistening is
expected as the ridge departs and the onshore flow resumes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A messy weather pattern bringing all modes of hazards (wind/low
ceilings/reduced vis/etc.) will persist through the forecast
period, with conditions improving through the later half of
tomorrow. For tonight, mainly scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms are expected, with both showers and thunderstorms
likely continuing to cause some reductions in VIS overnight. MVFR
to IFR ceilings and occasional gusts will continue as well. Early
tomorrow prior to sunrise a squall line will take shape to our
west and eject west to east across the region. This will result in
several hours of heavy rain, strong gusty winds, low ceilings,
reduced VIS, as well as the potential for hail and tornadoes.
Conditions will improve west to east through the afternoon and
evening hours.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A tight pressure gradient will continue to produce moderate to
strong south/southeast winds into Wednesday ahead of line of
thunderstorms that will sweep through during the morning and
afternoon. High pressure will build in Wednesday night into
Thursday with strong offshore winds expected. Light winds are
anticipated by Friday as high pressure moves overhead then to the
east of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  80  53  74 /  90  90  10   0
LCH  69  80  56  76 /  80  80   0   0
LFT  72  81  59  76 /  60  90   0   0
BPT  69  82  55  78 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ027>033.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 2 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ252>254.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ515-516-615-
     616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 2 PM CDT Wednesday for
     TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ430-432-
     435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ430-
     432-435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
639 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

TXZ180-259-100030-
Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
639 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN TYLER AND
NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 639 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville, Colmesneil, and Rockland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3105 9439 3108 9424 3096 9410 3069 9445
      3080 9457
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 214DEG 25KT 3082 9444

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rua

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
723 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

TXZ180-100115-
Tyler TX-
723 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TYLER COUNTY THROUGH 815
PM CDT...

At 723 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Wildwood, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville, Colmesneil, Warren, Town Bluff, Ivanhoe, and Hillister.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 9439 3082 9419 3081 9418 3079 9418
      3079 9415 3078 9414 3053 9448 3053 9454
      3069 9458
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 217DEG 34KT 3059 9455

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
726 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

TXZ201-100115-
Hardin TX-
726 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY
THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 725 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Batson, or 7 miles southwest of Thicket, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thicket, Votaw, Honey Island, and Batson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9470 3049 9454 3053 9455 3053 9450
      3041 9435 3023 9464 3046 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 220DEG 17KT 3031 9471

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
826 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

TXZ180-201-100215-
Hardin TX-Tyler TX-
826 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TYLER AND HARDIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 826 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Batson, or near Saratoga, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lumberton, Silsbee, Kountze, Saratoga, Thicket, Wildwood, Caney Head,
Batson, Votaw, Honey Island, and Village Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3053 9454 3057 9416 3033 9410
      3028 9412 3026 9411 3026 9410 3024 9412
      3022 9412 3016 9461 3049 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 242DEG 24KT 3031 9461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
847 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

TXZ180-259-100245-
Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
847 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN TYLER AND NORTHEASTERN
JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 847 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spurger, or 8 miles northwest of Fred, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Town Bluff, and Spurger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 9420 3054 9439 3101 9424 3091 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 208DEG 17KT 3068 9426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rua