Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1139 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

A lull in shower and thunderstorm activity is ongoing this morning
and should persist through at least the noon hour. Thereafter,
convection will begin to blossom in the warm sector followed by a
squall line type feature approaching from the west ahead of a cold
front. This line should make its way into SE TX around 2-3PM,
moving eastward from there through the late afternoon/evening and
eventually exiting lower Acadiana around 9-10PM. I went ahead and
made updates to the hourly POP grids through this evening to
account for current guidance trend, and blended NBM with the HRRR
and HREF which captured these trends well. Still expected all
modes of severe weather with the convection this
afternoon/evening. Remember to have multiple ways to receive
warnings through this period.

17

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

An active weather day is expected today.

Thick fog is currently blanketing the area with most locations
having a vis of 1/2 mile or less. Dewpoints have risen into the
mid 60s to around 70 as moisture continues to increase. Fog will
continue through sunrise, however mixing will increase fairly
quickly this morning which will allow fog to dissipate earlier
than most local radiational fog events. Lift is already
increasing with spotty showers developing along the I-10 corridor
which may allow for brief and spotty breaks in the dense fog to
develop before sunrise.

An approaching short wave over West TX will quickly push
east/northeast today. Lift will continue to increase this morning as
this disturbance draws closer. Ample moisture and instability, an
increasing LLJ, and steep mid lvl lapse rates will combine over
the local area to produce severe weather late this morning through
this afternoon and early evening. SPC has increased the threat
level to moderate (risk lvl 4 of 5) for a portion of the region
including sections of the East TX Lakes area and Central LA for
the potential of large hail, strong winds, and long lived
tornadoes, however severe weather is possible for the entire area.
As lift and instability increases through the morning and mid day
discrete cells are anticipated to develop before a squall line
eventually sweeps through during the afternoon and early evening.

The vigorous short wave and associated cold front will push east
of the area tonight with a modest cool down and drier weather
expected for Sunday and early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Late Monday and early Tuesday a low pressure system will move
across the mid Mississippi Valley with a cold front pushing to the
gulf coast. This front will usher in more seasonable weather for
the second half of the week

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

For the next few hours, scattered shower activity will continue to
stream north across the region amid MVFR CIGs and gusty southerly
winds. Some of these showers may evolve into thunderstorms
through the next couple of hours, and will be capable of producing
strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall.

Around 2-3PM a line of strong to severe storms will move into SE
TX, shifting east from there through the afternoon into the early
part of the overnight hours. This line will bring the worst of the
period's weather. Attempted to time this line out within the TAFs,
including with TEMPO groups. Conditions will deteriorate at BPT
around 2-3PM, at LCH between 4 and 5 PM, at AEX between 4 and 6
PM, and at LFT/ARA between 5 and 7 PM.

Thereafter, rainfall/severe risk will come to an end and CIGs
should gradually lift to VFR. However, some patchy fog is expected
to develop overnight at all sites. This fog should burn off around
14Z tomorrow, giving way to VFR conditions.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Dense fog will linger along the coast through early morning. Winds
will increase after sunrise with a moderate onshore flow expected
through much of the day. Thunderstorms can also be expected today
which may cause locally higher winds and seas.

A cold front will push through tonight with a light to moderate
offshore flow anticipated into Monday. A stronger front is
expected Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  68  47  71 /  70   0   0   0
LCH  54  69  51  71 /  50   0   0   0
LFT  58  71  51  74 /  70   0   0   0
BPT  54  72  52  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
750 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

LAZ030-141-281415-
Beauregard LA-Northern Calcasieu LA-
750 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH
THROUGH 815 AM CST...

At 749 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fields, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
De Quincy, Singer, Longville, Oretta, and Fields.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CST for southwestern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3039 9354 3045 9363 3075 9343 3060 9316
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 217DEG 21KT 3046 9354

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Tingler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
751 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

LAZ027-030-281415-
Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-
751 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BEAUREGARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN VERNON PARISHES THROUGH 815 AM CST...

At 750 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tulla, or 7 miles east of De Ridder, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pitkin, Cravens, Sugartown, and Fullerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CST for southwestern
and west central Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3093 9285 3088 9293 3088 9298 3084 9298
      3072 9317 3078 9326 3110 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 217DEG 21KT 3081 9317

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Tingler

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
933 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Pineville          31.32N 92.42W
12/26/2024                   Rapides            LA   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

1022 PM     Flash Flood      2 E Pineville           31.33N 92.38W
12/26/2024                   Rapides            LA   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

1034 PM     Flash Flood      2 E Pineville           31.33N 92.38W
12/26/2024                   Rapides            LA   Public

            Flooded Roads.

1038 PM     Flash Flood      3 WNW Alexandria        31.30N 92.51W
12/26/2024                   Rapides            LA   Public

            Streets flooded.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1021 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     Tornado          4 NNE Oretta            30.58N 93.42W
12/28/2024                   Beauregard         LA   Public

            Video of a weak tornado filmed on George
            Kendall Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1229 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

LAZ027-281900-
Vernon LA-
1229 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN VERNON PARISH
THROUGH 100 PM CST...

At 1228 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Anacoco, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Llano, Leesville, Anacoco, Kurthwood, Hutton, Slagle, and
Simpson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CST for central and
west central Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3136 9303 3136 9299 3134 9298 3134 9296
      3133 9295 3108 9329 3121 9344 3137 9329
      3137 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 224DEG 39KT 3121 9331

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1253 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

TXZ180-201-281930-
Hardin TX-Tyler TX-
1253 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TYLER AND
NORTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CST...

At 1253 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thicket, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Votaw, Warren, and Thicket.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CST for southeastern
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3071 9459 3062 9438 3025 9464
      3025 9465 3049 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 205DEG 31KT 3037 9470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JB