Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
741 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Convection is blossoming across the area with several cells
already noted to contain rotation. Severe wx is anticipated
through much of the afternoon and a tornado watch is now in effect
for most of the area through 3PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

An active weather day is expected today.

Thick fog is currently blanketing the area with most locations
having a vis of 1/2 mile or less. Dewpoints have risen into the
mid 60s to around 70 as moisture continues to increase. Fog will
continue through sunrise, however mixing will increase fairly
quickly this morning which will allow fog to dissipate earlier
than most local radiational fog events. Lift is already
increasing with spotty showers developing along the I-10 corridor
which may allow for brief and spotty breaks in the dense fog to
develop before sunrise.

An approaching short wave over West TX will quickly push
east/northeast today. Lift will continue to increase this morning as
this disturbance draws closer. Ample moisture and instability, an
increasing LLJ, and steep mid lvl lapse rates will combine over
the local area to produce severe weather late this morning through
this afternoon and early evening. SPC has increased the threat
level to moderate (risk lvl 4 of 5) for a portion of the region
including sections of the East TX Lakes area and Central LA for
the potential of large hail, strong winds, and long lived
tornadoes, however severe weather is possible for the entire area.
As lift and instability increases through the morning and mid day
discrete cells are anticipated to develop before a squall line
eventually sweeps through during the afternoon and early evening.

The vigorous short wave and associated cold front will push east
of the area tonight with a modest cool down and drier weather
expected for Sunday and early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Late Monday and early Tuesday a low pressure system will move
across the mid Mississippi Valley with a cold front pushing to the
gulf coast. This front will usher in more seasonable weather for
the second half of the week

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

LIFR conditions will persist for most of the TAF cycle as a result
of low VIS from dense fog or heavy showers / thunderstorms.
Showers are ongoing, with severe weather likely later this morning
through the evening hours.

Post front, showers and storms will clear the area, however that
will open the door for another round of fog very early tomorrow
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Dense fog will linger along the coast through early morning. Winds
will increase after sunrise with a moderate onshore flow expected
through much of the day. Thunderstorms can also be expected today
which may cause locally higher winds and seas.

A cold front will push through tonight with a light to moderate
offshore flow anticipated into Monday. A stronger front is
expected Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  52  68  47 / 100  50   0   0
LCH  75  54  69  51 /  90  30   0   0
LFT  76  58  71  51 /  90  70   0   0
BPT  77  54  72  52 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...87