Flash Flood Warning 152, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
328 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

At the surface, low pressure is near the Ark-La-Tex with a cold
front extending to the SW, west of Houston. Aloft, a powerful
midlevel shortwave trough is noted over north TX in water vapor
imagery. Severe storms are beginning to consolidate over our SE TX
counties at this time ahead of these features within a very warm
and moist atmosphere, which, timing wise, is well in line with
CAMs guidance over the last several hours. Showers and storms will
continue to push east through the evening into the early part of
the overnight period, eventually exiting lower Acadiana prior to
midnight. Until then, all modes of severe weather will be possible
as these storms consolidate into a QLCS and move east through the
forecast area. A PDS Tornado Watch remains in affect through 9PM
for the entire forecast area apart from lower Acadiana, with those
few parishes expected to be included in another Tor Watch that
will be issued later this evening. In addition to tornadoes, these
storms will be capable of producing hail, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and torrential rainfall that could lead to flooding.
Although many part of south LA have seen little weather today, it
is imperative to not let your guard down through the next several
hours as conditions will deteriorate quickly very soon.

Once this weather clears the forecast area tonight, winds will
gradually shift NW behind the cold front. However, little in the
way of cooler/drier air is expected post-frontal passage, with
dewpoints only "bottoming out" in the low to mid 50s tomorrow
morning. Therefore, it does look like we will see another round
of fog tonight/early tomorrow morning. Fortunately, the potential
for widespread dense fog look minimal, but patchy areas of fog may
be an issue Sun morning.

Tomorrow into Monday weak surface high pressure slides overhead,
with winds turning back to the SW to S Sun night. Otherwise,
rather benign but warm weather continues through Monday, with
highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows fall into the
upper 40s to mid 50s both Sun and Mon night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

The long term period will bring several days of dry and seasonal
conditions. Beginning on New Years Eve, a cold front will sweep
through the region early in the day, likely prior to sunrise,
shifting winds back to the north and advecting in a drier airmass
throughout the daytime hours. Highs will reach into mid to upper 60s
Tues afternoon, while dewpoints gradually fall into the low to mid
40s. Overnight, a secondary reinforcing cold front will quickly
sweep through the area, resulting in a chilly start to the new year
with lows falling in the the upper 30s to mid 40s Wed morning.

Wednesday into Thursday, post-frontal high pressure builds down out
of the Plains and settles overhead resulting in a couple of days of
dry and mild conditions. Mostly sunny skies, highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s, and light north winds can be expected each day. By
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, high pressure begins to
depart to the east allowing winds to turn more easterly overhead.
This will bring a slightly increase in dewpoints Thurs night into
Fri, which will in turn increase overnight lows a bit. NBM is still
wanting to bring small POPs in Thurs night into early Fri however,
I'm still not convinced we will be nearly moist enough to squeeze
out any showers through this period. Fri night into early Sat,
another dry cold front sweeps through, effectively bringing an end
to any warming/moistening trend as we head into the weekend.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

For the next few hours, scattered shower activity will continue to
stream north across the region amid MVFR CIGs and gusty southerly
winds. Some of these showers may evolve into thunderstorms
through the next couple of hours, and will be capable of producing
strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall.

Around 2-3PM a line of strong to severe storms will move into SE
TX, shifting east from there through the afternoon into the early
part of the overnight hours. This line will bring the worst of the
period's weather. Attempted to time this line out within the TAFs,
including with TEMPO groups. Conditions will deteriorate at BPT
around 2-3PM, at LCH between 4 and 5 PM, at AEX between 4 and 6
PM, and at LFT/ARA between 5 and 7 PM.

Thereafter, rainfall/severe risk will come to an end and CIGs
should gradually lift to VFR. However, some patchy fog is expected
to develop overnight at all sites. This fog should burn off around
14Z tomorrow, giving way to VFR conditions.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Showers and storms will begin to amplify over the western waters
through the next couple of hours, spreading east through the
evening and eventually exiting the eastern waters prior to
midnight. Winds and seas will be elevated this evening into
tonight, and will also be higher in and around any strong to
severe storms. Winds turn NW after the front and relax quickly,
before veering SW to S again by early Monday. Dry weather returns
overnight and continues through much of next week as a cold front
exits the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  51  67  48  72 /  90   0   0   0
LCH  53  70  52  72 /  80   0   0   0
LFT  56  70  52  73 /  80   0   0   0
BPT  54  72  53  74 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
158 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

TXZ180-259-282030-
Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
158 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN TYLER AND NORTHEASTERN
JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CST...

At 158 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spurger, or near Town Bluff, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spurger, Jasper, and Town Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CST for southeastern
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 9422 3072 9439 3105 9415 3088 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 218DEG 25KT 3073 9426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
200 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     Hail             Hillister               30.67N 94.38W
12/28/2024  M0.70 Inch       Tyler              TX   County Official

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
232 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     Hail             Town Bluff              30.79N 94.18W
12/28/2024  M0.75 Inch       Tyler              TX   Emergency Mngr

            Tyler County Emergency Management reports
            dime sized hail falling in Town Bluff.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
351 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ENE Mt. Union         30.72N 93.98W
12/28/2024                   Jasper             TX   Public

            Public report of trees and power lines down
            northwest of Kirbyville.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
354 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Fort Johnson            31.05N 93.21W
12/28/2024  M81 MPH          Vernon             LA   Official NWS Obs

            KPOE observation site reported a wind gust
            of 70 knots/81 mph.

&&

25

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
429 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 E Boyce               31.38N 92.55W
12/28/2024  E64 MPH          Rapides            LA   Official NWS Obs

            KAEX ASOS reported a gust of 55 knots.

&&

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