Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands through this evening. Tropical Storm
Ernesto is bringing strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the
region. A significant risk of flooding remains expected, with
mudslides likely in areas of steep terrain. Marine and coastal
conditions will remain deteriorated today. A gradual improvement
in weather conditions is expected by tonight as Ernesto moves
further north of the region and over the open Atlantic waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of
Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 19.5 North,
longitude 66.6 West, moving toward the northwest at 16 mph (26
km/h). The center is currently about 85 miles north- northwest of
San Juan with strong and frequent rainbands affecting most of the
area. Tropical storm sustained winds are expected across most of
the eastern side of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and the U.S.
Virgin Islands this morning. Lingering moisture will persist this
afternoon providing conditions for ongoing rainfall. Marine and
coastal conditions will remain deteriorated with seas greater than
10 feet and life- threatening rip currents, and rough surf
conditions lasting through at least late this afternoon.

Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals
of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected
across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches
across northwestern Puerto Rico. Flooding remains a threat were
flash flooding and mud/landslides are possible. A gradual
improvement in weather conditions is expected by tonight. By
Thursday, warm and hot conditions will return along with fair
weather across the region.

Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the progress of
this system and have their tropical emergency plans ready now.
Please refer to the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin (TCPAT5) issued
by National Hurricane Center and Hurricane Local Statements (HLSSJU)
issued by WFO San Juan PR for updated information.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...

The current forecast track has Tropical Storm Ernesto far away
from our region by Friday, about 650 miles, and it is forecast to
be a Hurricane at that time. Weather conditions should improve in
our local area and return to a more typical pattern. The latest
Precipitable Water (PWAT) models suggest values returning to
average values. The interaction of surface winds across the
Atlantic due to Ernesto's positions and a surface high pressure
across the eastern Atlantic should promote southeasterly winds
through Sunday, then shift from the east on Monday lasting through
Tuesday. At the upper levels, a TUTT will approach from the
northeast, promoting favorable conditions aloft for daily showers.

In general, local weather during the long term will be dominated
by east-to- southeast winds, daytime heating, and local effects.
Therefore, afternoon convective activity with showers and
thunderstorms is expected across the interior and northwestern
Puerto Rico. For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers dragged
by the winds will reach the islands mainly during the morning
hours. Limited excessive rainfall risk will probably be present as
ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas is possible
with shower activity, mainly on Friday. Warm conditions will
return by Friday and last through the weekend, mainly across
coastal and lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

SHRA/TSRA associated to the rainbands from TS Ernesto will continue
to affect the region, generating MVFR to brief LIFT conditions
throughout the period. W winds in TJSJ and TJPS and  N winds in TJBQ
at 15-30 knots will gradually turn from the WSW-ESE at 15-20 knots
after 14/14Z. Winds at US terminals will remain from the S at 30-40
knots, decreasing to 20-30 knots after 14/14Z. SHRA/TSRA will
decrease once Ernesto moves away.

&&

.MARINE...

Tropical Storm Ernesto, located 85 miles north- northwest of
San Juan, will continue to move northwestward across the Atlantic
waters, exiting the area later today. Rough, hazardous seas will
continue at through at least tonight. Conditions are expected to
improve on Thursday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Beach conditions will continue deteriorate as Tropical Storm
Ernesto moves through the region. Large breaking waves are
expected to impact the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today
through tonight. High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current
Statements are in effect through at least tonight.

&&

HYDROLOGY...

Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring rainfall accumulation of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches for portions of the
Virgin Islands, eastern and southern Puerto Rico, as well as the
interior. The risk of flooding will be significant, with rapid
river rises, and mudslides likely. Please refer to the latest
Flash Flood Watch (FFWSJU) for additional information.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Hurricane Watch for PRZ012-013.

     Tropical Storm Warning for PRZ001>013.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for
     PRZ001>003-012-013.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for PRZ001>013.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001>003-005-
     008-012-013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001>003-
     005-008-012-013.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ010.

VI...Hurricane Watch for VIZ001-002.

     Tropical Storm Warning for VIZ001-002.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-
     002.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VIZ001-002.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ711-716-723-726-733.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ711-712-716-723-726-733-735-741-
     742-745.

&&

RC-RAM-YZR-OMS-ERG-LIS-RVT

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