Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
508 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Vieques and Culebra. In addition, a Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Tropical Storm Ernesto will approach the region later tonight,
bringing strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the region. The
areas most impacted will be the Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra,
and eastern Puerto Rico. A significant risk of flooding remain
expected, with mudslides likely in areas of steep terrain. Marine
and coastal conditions will continue to deteriorate tonight into
Wednesday. A gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected
on Wednesday afternoon as Ernesto moves over north of the region
and over the open Atlantic waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...

A Hurricane Watch was issued today for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Vieques and Culebra. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC),
the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.0
North, longitude 64.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west-
northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a
turn toward the north-northwest and north Wednesday night and
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto should pass
near or over the Virgin Islands this evening, and then pass just to
the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday.

A gradual increase in rainfall and winds will be observed tonight as
Tropical Storm Ernesto moves closer to the islands. Therefore, the
potential for flooding rains remains high across the region.
Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S. Virgin Island with
isolated higher amounts. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall,
with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. As the night
progresses winds will increase as well. Ernesto is expected to
continue strengthening as it moves closer to the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Therefore, there is the potential to experience hurricane
force wind gusts across the higher elevations of these islands.
Despite the location of the center of Ernesto, its effects will be
observed across all the islands. A gradual improvement in weather
conditions is expected by Wednesday morning. By Thursday, warm
and hot conditions will return along with fair weather across the
region.

Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the progress of
this system and have their tropical emergency plans ready now.
Please refer to the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin (TCPAT5) issued
by National Hurricane Center and Hurricane Local Statements (HLSSJU)
issued by WFO San Juan PR for updated information.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 454 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024/

The current forecast track has Tropical Storm Ernesto away from
our region by Friday, about 650 miles, and it is forecast to be a
Hurricane at that time. Weather conditions should improve in our
local area and return to a more typical pattern. The latest
Precipitable Water (PWAT) models suggest values returning to
average values. High pressure across the Atlantic should promote
southeasterly winds through Sunday, then shift from the east on
Monday. At the upper levels, a TUTT will approach from the
northeast, promoting favorable conditions aloft for daily showers.
In general, local weather during the long term will be dominated
by east-to-southeast winds, daytime heating, and local effects.
Therefore, afternoon convective activity with showers and
thunderstorms is expected across the interior and northwestern
Puerto Rico. For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers dragged
by the winds will reach the islands mainly during the morning
hours. Limited excessive rainfall risk will probably be present as
ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas is possible
with shower activity, mainly on Friday. Warm conditions will
return by Friday and last through the weekend, mainly across
coastal and lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

SHRA/TSRA associated to the rainbands from TC Ernesto will continue
to gradually increase in a NE wind flow thru at least 13/22z, winds
will then acquire a west to southerly component through the night.
MVFR to IFR conds are expected from around 13/20z thru 14/10z,
starting across the USVI terminals and spreading across the eastern
PR terminals. NNE-NE winds should prevail btw 15-25 kt with gusts up
to 35 kt, turning NNW to WSW from this evening onwards, and
increasing to 35-45 kt with gusts up to 55 kt aft 13/22z at
TISX/TIST. As Ernesto is expected to move close to the northern
USVI, wind speeds are forecast to increase up 55 kt with gusts
around 70 kt near midnight tonight. At TJSJ, WNW to SSW winds could
range btw 25-35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt btw 14/04z-10z.

&&

.MARINE...

Tropical Storm Ernesto, located 135 miles ESE of San Juan and 65
miles ESE of St. Thomas, is expected to move into the local waters
this evening into Wednesday as a tropical cyclone. However, marine
conditions in our eastern Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage
will continue to deteriorate as the night progresses. Further
deterioration in marine and weather conditions is expected Wednesday
through Thursday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Beach conditions will continue deteriorate as Tropical Storm
Ernesto approaches the region. Large breaking waves are expected
to impact the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from this evening
into Thursday. High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Statements
are in effect from this evening through at least Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday, respectively.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring rainfall accumulation of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches for portions of the
Virgin Islands, eastern and southern Puerto Rico, as well as the
interior. The risk of flooding will be significant, with rapid
river rises, and mudslides likely. Please refer to the latest
Flash Flood Watch (FFWSJU) for additional information.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Hurricane Watch for PRZ012-013.

     Tropical Storm Warning for PRZ001>013.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for PRZ001>003-
     012-013.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for PRZ001>013.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for
     PRZ001>003-005-008.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for PRZ001>003-005-
     008-012-013.

     High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through late
     Wednesday night for PRZ010.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for PRZ012-
     013.

VI...Hurricane Watch for VIZ001-002.

     Tropical Storm Warning for VIZ001-002.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for VIZ001-002.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for VIZ001-002.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for VIZ001-
     002.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ711-716-723-726-733.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ711-712-716-723-726-733-735-741-
     742-745.

&&

DSR-CAM-ICP-CVB-GRS-ERF-OMS

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR
523 AM AST martes 13 de agosto de 2024

AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-140930-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-
Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-
Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe-
523 AM AST martes 13 de agosto de 2024

...Favor de referirse al Comunicado Local sobre huracanes...

AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-140930-
San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
523 AM AST martes 13 de agosto de 2024

...Favor de referirse al Comunicado Local sobre huracanes...

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

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