Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS JSJ

911 
WGCA72 TJSJ 142219
FFSSJU

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
619 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

PRC029-031-063-077-087-129-142229-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FF.W.0090.000000T0000Z-240814T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Canovanas PR-Carolina PR-Gurabo PR-Juncos PR-Loiza PR-San Lorenzo
PR-
619 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CANOVANAS, CAROLINA, GURABO, 
JUNCOS, LOIZA AND NORTHEASTERN SAN LORENZO COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 800 AM AST Thursday for  
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

&&

LAT...LON 1823 6601 1828 6601 1829 6603 1830 6603
      1831 6597 1829 6594 1831 6594 1837 6599
      1846 6595 1846 6589 1845 6587 1841 6590
      1841 6587 1829 6587 1827 6584 1820 6590
      1812 6594 1813 6601 1822 6600

$$

DS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
402 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...At 2 PM AST Tropical Storm Ernesto was 225 miles
northwest of San Juan and moving northwest at 16 mph. The tail of
Ernesto is pulling across western Puerto Rico and our western
Atlantic waters with scattered showers elsewhere. Some
thunderstorms linger. Conditions will improve but southerly flow
will cause excessive heat into the weekend. Moisture will return
to normal or slightly above normal levels beginning on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...

Tropical storm Ernesto will continue to be the dominant influence
on the weather through Thursday. The tail of Ernesto will pull
across western Puerto Rico and the local western Atlantic waters
this evening, but the GFS shows moisture retreating with the storm
to the north northwest except for isolated convection later
tonight and Thursday. Moisture at 850 mb drops off rapidly tonight
and at higher levels on Thursday. Considerable drying will be
seen on Friday up through 300 mb. As the convergence into TS
Ernesto moves with the storm to the northwest, a ridge from the
surface to 700 mb will move in over the area to reinforce drying
and subsidence. This will also greatly decrease the amount of
rainfall expected Thursday and Friday. At upper levels a very weak
ridge of high pressure will develop over and just north of the
area between TS Ernesto and another low pressure currently
negatively tilted over 52 west longitude to our east.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...

A surface high ridging over the area and the northeastern
Caribbean on Saturday will shift northwest into the Bahama Islands
by Monday from a quasi stationary high over the Azores. An
easterly wave near 35 west on Saturday will move toward the area
to about 55 west on Tuesday. At this time it is not carrying a
significant amount of additional moisture and will travel well
south of Puerto Rico. Better moisture will move into the area
behind a weaker wave closely following that will bring showers to
the area. Since precipitable water values will continue during the
long-term period in the range of 1.4 to 2.0 inches and flow will
be mostly southeast over the weekend and turning more easterly
during the week, a more typical weather patter will prevail for
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands with bands of better
moisture even if excessive heat persists early in the period.
This will mean early morning showers in eastern Puerto Rico
followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms in western and
interior parts of the island. For the U.S. Virgin Islands only
isolated to scattered showers are expected with limited amounts of
rainfall occurring. Some lines of convection are likely during
this period extending with the flow to the west northwest or west
of Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...

(18z)

IFR/MVFR conditions are forecast to prevail across TJBQ until at
least 14/21z as the rainbands from Hurricane Ernesto move out. For
the rest of the PR TAF sites, mainly VFR conds, at times MVFR, will
prevail with brief SHRA/TSRA and low CIG thru 14/22z, while USVI TAF
sites can expect mostly VFR conds with VCSH.  Mostly VFR conds for
all TAF sites aft 15/00Z. Winds will remain mainly from the S-SE up
to 15 knots and gusty winds up to 28 kts, a more SE wind flow is
forecast at around 15/03Z.

&&

.MARINE...Hazardous seas will slowly retreat with TS Ernesto and
small craft advisories are not expected after Thursday at 6 PM
AST through Thursday of next week. Nevertheless subsiding swell
from TS Ernesto will continue to arrive in the local area now
through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue--
especially in the northern waters--through Thursday also with
diminishing frequency.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...Rip current risk will remain moderate to high
over all beaches tonight and moderate on Thursday. Due to the
swell returning from TS Ernesto, which is forecast to become a
hurricane in the next 24 hours, the rip current risk over the
weekend will remain moderate on some northern beaches on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many rivers across Puerto Rico are in flood stage and
some in western Puerto Rico will rise further. The Flash Flood
watch has been extended through 8 AM AST. All rivers, if they
have not done so by now, should crest soon or overnight.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for
     PRZ001>003-012-013.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for PRZ001>013.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001>003-005-
     008-010-012-013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001>003-
     005-008-012-013.

VI...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-
     002.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VIZ001-002.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Thursday for AMZ712-716-723-
     726-733-735-741-742-745.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...WS
LONG TERM....WS
AVIATION...CVB
TROPICAL...OM
PUBLIC...ERG/DS/RVT/MMC
UPPER AIR...RVT/GRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Juan PR
422 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-152030-
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-
North Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-
Western Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
The nearshore and off shore Atlantic and Caribbean Coastal Waters-
422 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Puerto Rico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

.Lightning...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible. Be
aware of thunderstorms in your area and be prepared to take
shelter.

.Excessive Rainfall...Life-threatening flash flooding entering
structures and cutting off neighborhoods, especially in flood
prone areas.

.Wind...Windy conditions. Outdoor items could blow around or be
damaged. Trees in saturated soils may fall.

.Marine Conditions...Tropical storm warning across the outer
Atlantic waters: Seas equal or greater than 10 feet. Dangerous
conditions for small craft elsewhere.

.Rip Currents...There is a high risk of life-threatening rip
currents in the surf zone at all beaches except on the southwest
and south central coasts where the risk will be moderate.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Winds and seas will subside tonight and Thursday. There will be a
limited risk of excessive rainfall in western Puerto Rico Friday
and Sunday. Excessive heat in some lower elevations is expected
each day. The risk of rip currents will continue at some beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is encouraged. Please relay any information
about flooding, winds, waves, and rip currents to the National
Weather Service in San Juan.

AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-152030-
St. Thomas St. John adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Nearshore Atlantic and adjacent Caribbean Coastal Waters-
422 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of USVI.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

.Lightning...Isolated thunderstorms possible across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and the surrounding waters. Be aware of
thunderstorms in your area and be prepared to take shelter.

.Excessive Rainfall...Flooding of urban areas, roads, guts, and
washes. Isolated flash floods possible.

.Wind...Windy conditions. Outdoor items could blow around or be
damaged.

.Marine Conditions...Seas equal or greater than 10 feet across
the outer Atlantic waters. Dangerous conditions for small craft
elsewhere.

.Rip Currents...Life-threatening rip currents are likely in the
surf zone.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Excessive heat is expected each day--warmest in Saint Croix. Some
hazardous seas west of Saint Croix are possible Thursday. There
is a moderate risk of rip currents on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is encouraged. Please relay any information
about flooding, winds, waves, and rip currents to the National
Weather Service in San Juan.

Snell

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
321 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Flash Flood      3 NW Barahona           18.38N 66.48W
08/14/2024                   Manati             PR   Emergency Mngr

            The emergency manager reported that road
            6685 in Manati near K-feina Coffee Shop is
            closed due to the river being out of its
            bank.

&&

MMC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
327 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     Tropical Cyclone 1 N Campo Rico          18.35N 65.90W
08/14/2024                   Canovanas          PR   911 Call Center

            911 Call Center reported a fallen tree at
            PR-185 obstructing the road. The report also
            said that electrical post was down.

&&

CVB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
332 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Flash Flood      1 W Manati              18.43N 66.50W
08/14/2024                   Manati             PR   Emergency Mngr

            The emergency manager reported that Sector
            California (a residential area near PR-2) is
            being affected by flooding, and the river is
            out of its bank. Currently, families are
            being rescued from their houses.

&&

MMC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
338 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Capitanejo        18.01N 66.56W
08/14/2024                   Ponce              PR   911 Call Center

            911 Call Center reported that a person was
            holding into a post due to flash flooding in
            PR-1, by Tiendita Holsum.

&&

CVB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
424 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     Flood            2 E Potala Pastillo     17.99N 66.46W
08/14/2024                   Juana Diaz         PR   911 Call Center

            911 Call Center reported that PR-1 was
            flooded right by Motel Mar Bella. However,
            it was not impassable.

&&

CVB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

PRZ001-004-142100-
San Juan and Vicinity PR-Eastern Interior PR-
427 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SAN JUAN...AGUAS
BUENAS...GUAYNABO AND BAYAMON THROUGH 500 PM AST...

At 426 PM AST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
San Juan, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 1823 6609 1825 6619 1843 6614 1842 6602
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 196DEG 65KT 1845 6607

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DS