Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
356 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered strong-severe thunderstorms east of
  Interstate 69 across Indiana and Ohio through late afternoon.
  Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain are the main
  threats, but an isolated tornado also possible. Severe threat
  diminishes early this evening.

- Cooler, dry and less humid Wednesday through Monday with highs
  75 to lower 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

Potential of severe weather through early evening will be the
primary forecast concern, with an extended stretch of mainly dry
weather than expected Wednesday into the weekend.

Water vapor imagery as of 19Z indicating well pronounced upper
level short wave tracking across southern Lower MI and northeast
Indiana. Convection has fired over past hour at leading edge of
drier punch of mid/upper level air. Most active axis of
thunderstorm development has been along corridor from southern
Defiance County OH into southern Henry County OH. This is also
in vicinity of low level boundary marking very sharp thermal
contrast (low 90s south of the boundary, mid to upper 60s north
of the boundary). Dew points appear to be maximized and pooled
right near the low level boundary with maximum in instability
(2500-3000 J/kg surface-based CAPE, 2000 MLCAPES) in vicinity of
this boundary. Effective shear is also supportive of storm
organization and embedded supercell structures. One limiting
factor for more notable supercell/tornado threat is a large
component of shear parallel to low level boundary that should
result in more congealing of storms and quicker development of
outflow dominance. Primary threat appears to be isolated to
scattered damaging wind guts east of I-69 across NE IN/NW OH,
along with some localized heavier rainfall amounts/minor
flooding. An isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out near
the boundary and just north of the boundary where low level
helicity should be maximized. The duration of the severe
potential may be limited however, as upstream short wave is
already making its way across far northeast Indiana, with bulk
of this forcing expected to shift east of the area after 22Z.

Otherwise for tonight, scattered showers may linger into mid-
late evening across the southeast with low level frontal
boundary slow to sag southeastward. Post-frontal stratus will
shift south this evening with diminishing clouds from north to
south overnight.

A relatively quiet period is shaping up for the remainder of the
forecast period as low amplitude flow follows for Wednesday and
Thursday in advance of an upper low across the Upper Midwest.
Moisture return will be limited in advance of this feature and
while cannot completely rule out a few light rain showers
grazing southwest Lower MI Thursday night, will maintain a dry
forecast. A much cooler/drier airmass overspreads the region for
the weekend as this upper low meanders across the eastern Great
Lakes/southeast Canada. A few weak short waves rotating around
this negative height anomaly could bring a low chance of light
precip, but below mentionable levels at this forecast distance.
Temperatures will moderate back into the mid and upper 70s
toward the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

Cooler, more stable air continues to sink southward. MVFR CIGs
appear to sink into SBN just before this TAF period. There may a
chance for IFR to move in for an hour or two around 00z or so, but
it appears shortlived enough and with weak enough intensity to keep
at low end MVFR for now. FWA has a better chance to dip into IFR
also around that 00z time period until around 10z. MVFR CIGs likely
linger into the morning at FWA.

Winds become more northeasterly by this evening and will try to stay
at or above 10 kts until late tonight/early Wed morning. Gusts to
between 20 and 25 kts will be possible this afternoon as well.
The quick dip below 10 kts Wed morning will become gusty by
midday and early afternoon again Wed.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Roller

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
149 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

OHZ001-004-061815-
Defiance OH-Williams OH-
149 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DEFIANCE AND
SOUTHERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

At 149 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Edgerton, or 8 miles northeast of Butler, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bryan, Montpelier, Edgerton, West Unity, Stryker, Edon, Edgerton In
Williams County, West Jefferson, Pulaski, Farmer, Blakeslee,
Evansport, Williams Center, Melbern, and Hallock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4137 8480 4158 8480 4160 8438 4151 8438
      4151 8437 4140 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 260DEG 23KT 4148 8473

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MCS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
235 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

OHZ004-005-061900-
Henry OH-Defiance OH-
235 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DEFIANCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 234 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Defiance, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Defiance, Holgate, Hamler, Malinta, Florida, New Bavaria, Jewell,
Okolona, Pleasant Bend, Elery, Ayersville, and Standley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 8406 4117 8432 4118 8434 4121 8434
      4121 8438 4124 8443 4137 8433 4133 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 302DEG 28KT 4129 8434

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brown

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
258 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Brunersburg        41.33N 84.43W
08/06/2024  M58 MPH          Defiance           OH   ASOS

            ASOS station KDFI Defiance.

&&

CR

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