Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
603 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The first round of storms arrive near and north of the Michigan
border early today.

- Additional storms with torrential and strong gusty winds should
develop late this afternoon over northern Indiana and northwest
Ohio.

- Cooler, dry and less humid Wednesday through Monday with highs
  75 to around 80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

The first of two rounds of storms will arrive early today and mainly
impact areas near and north of the Michigan border. The storms were
associated with an upper level disturbance that topped the upstream
ridge this weekend and were moving southeast across the Upper
Midwest and Midwest. At this time, it appears heavy rain and strong
gusty winds will prevail; however, overall believe these storms
should remain below severe levels. There should be at least somewhat
of a break in convection before more storms develop south of the
front in the very unstable airmass by mid afternoon. The latest HRRR
favors storm development in the 19Z to 01Z window (3pm to 9pm EDT).
These storms are likely to have torrential rainfall as precipitable
water values hover near 2.25 inches. Strong gusty winds may
accompany the storms, but the latest high res/CAMs seem to favor
storms remaining below severe levels. Otherwise, cooler and
drier conditions will prevail after the rain ends tonight all
of the way into early next week. Highs through the period will
be in the 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

General VFR conditions into aftn. Pesky MVFR in fog continues over
nw IN yet will quickly lift after sunrise. Otherwise a few storms
possible this aftn yet for a time invof KFWA as composite
outflow/weak cold frontal zone shift south across the terminals.
Rapid dampening of shortwave disturbance aloft and presence of
capping inversion aloft pose considerable uncertainty to potential
for storms and kept with vcts mention there.

Thereafter stout post frontal nerly flow develops this evening with
likely IFR cigs in moist post frontal flow.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...T

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
526 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

INZ005-012>015-020-022-023-103-104-116-203-204-216-061100-
Elkhart-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-
Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-
Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Knox,
North Judson, Bass Lake, Winamac, Francesville, Medaryville,
Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, Rochester, Akron, Monticello, Monon,
Brookston, Logansport, Royal Center, Peru, Grissom AFB, Mexico,
Michigan City, La Porte, Kingsbury, Fish Lake, South Bend,
Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger, Syracuse, Milford, North Webster,
Leesburg, Wanatah, La Crosse, Union Mills, North Liberty,
New Carlisle, Walkerton, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Silver Lake,
and Mentone
526 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 /426 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024/

...Patchy dense fog early this morning...

Patchy dense fog with local visibilities down to or below one
quarter mile will be possible through sunrise.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
906 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Howardsville        42.03N 85.76W
08/06/2024                   St. Joseph         MI   Trained Spotter

            Large tree limbs down near Highway 216 and
            Lewis Lake Drive. Time estimated from radar.

&&

NDM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
925 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SW Moore Park         41.98N 85.66W
08/06/2024                   St. Joseph         MI   Emergency Mngr

            Reports of trees and power lines down in the
            area of Pulver Rd and Null Road. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

LWF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
945 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     Funnel Cloud     Kinderhook              41.80N 85.01W
08/06/2024                   Branch             MI   Trained Spotter

            Report of a funnel cloud near the
            intersection of S Angola Rd and E Copeland
            Rd.

&&

LWF