Tornado Warning 61, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 440 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Widespread fog, dense at times, will prevail through this morning as
the warm moist flow continues at the lower/mid levels across the FA.
But the main forecast issue for today is going to be the possibility
of strong to severe thunderstorms with the passage of a strong short
wave and its associated cold front. The primary factors contributing
to this threat remain conditional for SE TX with (based on how quick-
ly the patchy dense fog/low clouds are able to mix out). Models seem
to be targeting our E/NE CWA as the "starting point" for development
this afternoon...with the strong more organized activity likely over
the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states through this evening.

In the meantime, the strengthening low-level jet (and WAA) will help
to set things up this morning with showers/isolated thunderstorms be-
coming widespread across the region this morning. Activity will then
start to focus near the surface low over C TX before starting a slow
trek eastward into our CWA this afternoon. So, if conditions here do
become favorable, the best PVA/upper level forcing should be from I-
45 east to the Piney Woods. SPC is keeping our far NE areas (eastern
Houston/Trinity/Polk counties) under an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5)
with the next tier of counties generally east of I-45 as Slight Risk
(2/5) and then a line from College Station to Sargent as the western
extend of the Marginal Risk (1/5). The main severe weather threat is
going to be a combination of damaging wind and hail...with tornadoes
not ruled out.

Convection will be ending with the passage of the cold front by this
evening. Cooler/drier air should make its way into the area tonight.
41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Fairly benign wx is anticipated for the remainder of the week. One
last day with highs in the 70s is expected Monday before the next
front pushes through late Monday night & Tuesday morning. This
front should be moisture starved so no precipitation is
anticipated. Seasonable temperatures will then prevail in the
wake of the front. Will probably see some clouds and slight
chances of light rain come back into the picture late Thursday
night & Friday ahead of a reinforcing front. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Reduced ceilings and visibilities (MVFR/IFR in the stronger activity)
can be expected as SHRA/TSRA continue to move eastward across the area
this afternoon. Moderate to strong and gusty S winds ahead of these
storms can be expected. Area will be clearing out from W to E as the
afternoon hours progress, and currently anticipate all activity to be
E of our easternmost TAF sites before 29/00Z. Might see fog and low
clouds develop in some spots overnight with light winds and wet grounds
in place. Tomorrow looks quiet after any fog that develops dissipates
with mainly weak N winds.  42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Dense fog will linger into mid morning until onshore winds
increase in strength (gusty at times during the day) ahead of the
next weather system moving into the area. Look for some scattered
showers and thunderstorms...a few could be on the stronger side
east of Freeport. Winds will become west and northwest late in the
day and tonight as a front pushes into the waters. Onshore flow
resumes Monday followed by a stronger front late Monday night and
early Tuesday morning. No significant weather is anticipated with
the second front, though with astronomical tide levels already on
lower side, water levels in the bays could fall slightly below
normal in its wake. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  76  50  69  51 /  70   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)			  77  53  70  53 /  70   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)			  72  56  66  60 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
149 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     Hail             2 WSW Crockett          31.31N 95.48W
12/28/2024  E0.88 Inch       Houston            TX   Public

            Nickel sized hail in Crockett on 21 West.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
155 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ENE Dickinson         29.47N 95.04W
12/28/2024  M66 MPH          Galveston          TX   Public

            Wind gust occurred near the intersection of
            40th Street and Texas Avenue.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
209 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NNE San Leon          29.54N 94.91W
12/28/2024  M61 MPH          GMZ335             TX   Public

            Wind gust occurred at the Galveston Bay
            WeatherFlow site XGAL.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
219 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 7 E Morgan's Point      29.66N 94.89W
12/28/2024  M39 MPH          GMZ335             TX   Mesonet

            Marine thunderstorm wind gust occurred at
            the Ocean Drive mesonet site.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
221 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 4 NNE San Leon          29.54N 94.91W
12/28/2024  M61 MPH          GMZ335             TX   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from 4
            NNE San Leon. Marine thunderstorm wind gust
            occurred at the Galveston Bay WeatherFlow
            site XGAL.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>