Tornado Warning 59, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 440 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Widespread fog, dense at times, will prevail through this morning as
the warm moist flow continues at the lower/mid levels across the FA.
But the main forecast issue for today is going to be the possibility
of strong to severe thunderstorms with the passage of a strong short
wave and its associated cold front. The primary factors contributing
to this threat remain conditional for SE TX with (based on how quick-
ly the patchy dense fog/low clouds are able to mix out). Models seem
to be targeting our E/NE CWA as the "starting point" for development
this afternoon...with the strong more organized activity likely over
the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states through this evening.

In the meantime, the strengthening low-level jet (and WAA) will help
to set things up this morning with showers/isolated thunderstorms be-
coming widespread across the region this morning. Activity will then
start to focus near the surface low over C TX before starting a slow
trek eastward into our CWA this afternoon. So, if conditions here do
become favorable, the best PVA/upper level forcing should be from I-
45 east to the Piney Woods. SPC is keeping our far NE areas (eastern
Houston/Trinity/Polk counties) under an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5)
with the next tier of counties generally east of I-45 as Slight Risk
(2/5) and then a line from College Station to Sargent as the western
extend of the Marginal Risk (1/5). The main severe weather threat is
going to be a combination of damaging wind and hail...with tornadoes
not ruled out.

Convection will be ending with the passage of the cold front by this
evening. Cooler/drier air should make its way into the area tonight.
41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Fairly benign wx is anticipated for the remainder of the week. One
last day with highs in the 70s is expected Monday before the next
front pushes through late Monday night & Tuesday morning. This
front should be moisture starved so no precipitation is
anticipated. Seasonable temperatures will then prevail in the
wake of the front. Will probably see some clouds and slight
chances of light rain come back into the picture late Thursday
night & Friday ahead of a reinforcing front. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Reduced ceilings and visibilities (MVFR/IFR in the stronger activity)
can be expected as SHRA/TSRA continue to move eastward across the area
this afternoon. Moderate to strong and gusty S winds ahead of these
storms can be expected. Area will be clearing out from W to E as the
afternoon hours progress, and currently anticipate all activity to be
E of our easternmost TAF sites before 29/00Z. Might see fog and low
clouds develop in some spots overnight with light winds and wet grounds
in place. Tomorrow looks quiet after any fog that develops dissipates
with mainly weak N winds.  42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Dense fog will linger into mid morning until onshore winds
increase in strength (gusty at times during the day) ahead of the
next weather system moving into the area. Look for some scattered
showers and thunderstorms...a few could be on the stronger side
east of Freeport. Winds will become west and northwest late in the
day and tonight as a front pushes into the waters. Onshore flow
resumes Monday followed by a stronger front late Monday night and
early Tuesday morning. No significant weather is anticipated with
the second front, though with astronomical tide levels already on
lower side, water levels in the bays could fall slightly below
normal in its wake. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  76  50  69  51 /  70   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)			  77  53  70  53 /  70   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)			  72  56  66  60 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1105 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     Tornado          1 W Cypress             29.97N 95.69W
12/28/2024                   Harris             TX   Public

            Sighted near the intersection of Highway 290
            and Spring Cypress Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     Tornado          3 WNW Splendora         30.25N 95.20W
12/28/2024                   Montgomery         TX   Public

            Tornado sighted near the FM 2090 and
            Splendora High School area with a lot of
            debris.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     Tornado          5 NNW Katy              29.86N 95.87W
12/28/2024                   Waller             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Tornado damage in a mobile home park near
            Noel Lane. Cars flipped over.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     Tornado          5 NE Porter Heights     30.21N 95.27W
12/28/2024                   Montgomery         TX   Trained Spotter

            Mobile homes heavily damaged or destroyed.
            Brick home with roof completely removed.
            East Montgomery Fire Department hit, with
            bay doors blown in and metal roof peeled
            back. Debris scattered across the area.

&&

BB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
117 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     Tornado          3 WSW Hillcrest         29.37N 95.27W
12/28/2024                   Brazoria           TX   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple homes destroyed between Alvin and
            Liverpool (near CR 191A). Substantial debris
            on parts of SH 35.

&&