Tornado Warning 57, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 440 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Widespread fog, dense at times, will prevail through this morning as
the warm moist flow continues at the lower/mid levels across the FA.
But the main forecast issue for today is going to be the possibility
of strong to severe thunderstorms with the passage of a strong short
wave and its associated cold front. The primary factors contributing
to this threat remain conditional for SE TX with (based on how quick-
ly the patchy dense fog/low clouds are able to mix out). Models seem
to be targeting our E/NE CWA as the "starting point" for development
this afternoon...with the strong more organized activity likely over
the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states through this evening.

In the meantime, the strengthening low-level jet (and WAA) will help
to set things up this morning with showers/isolated thunderstorms be-
coming widespread across the region this morning. Activity will then
start to focus near the surface low over C TX before starting a slow
trek eastward into our CWA this afternoon. So, if conditions here do
become favorable, the best PVA/upper level forcing should be from I-
45 east to the Piney Woods. SPC is keeping our far NE areas (eastern
Houston/Trinity/Polk counties) under an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5)
with the next tier of counties generally east of I-45 as Slight Risk
(2/5) and then a line from College Station to Sargent as the western
extend of the Marginal Risk (1/5). The main severe weather threat is
going to be a combination of damaging wind and hail...with tornadoes
not ruled out.

Convection will be ending with the passage of the cold front by this
evening. Cooler/drier air should make its way into the area tonight.
41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Fairly benign wx is anticipated for the remainder of the week. One
last day with highs in the 70s is expected Monday before the next
front pushes through late Monday night & Tuesday morning. This
front should be moisture starved so no precipitation is
anticipated. Seasonable temperatures will then prevail in the
wake of the front. Will probably see some clouds and slight
chances of light rain come back into the picture late Thursday
night & Friday ahead of a reinforcing front. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Reduced ceilings and visibilities (MVFR/IFR in the stronger activity)
can be expected as SHRA/TSRA continue to move eastward across the area
this afternoon. Moderate to strong and gusty S winds ahead of these
storms can be expected. Area will be clearing out from W to E as the
afternoon hours progress, and currently anticipate all activity to be
E of our easternmost TAF sites before 29/00Z. Might see fog and low
clouds develop in some spots overnight with light winds and wet grounds
in place. Tomorrow looks quiet after any fog that develops dissipates
with mainly weak N winds.  42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Dense fog will linger into mid morning until onshore winds
increase in strength (gusty at times during the day) ahead of the
next weather system moving into the area. Look for some scattered
showers and thunderstorms...a few could be on the stronger side
east of Freeport. Winds will become west and northwest late in the
day and tonight as a front pushes into the waters. Onshore flow
resumes Monday followed by a stronger front late Monday night and
early Tuesday morning. No significant weather is anticipated with
the second front, though with astronomical tide levels already on
lower side, water levels in the bays could fall slightly below
normal in its wake. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  76  50  69  51 /  70   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)			  77  53  70  53 /  70   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)			  72  56  66  60 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1028 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

TXZ199-212-213-227-281715-
Waller TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-Montgomery TX-
1028 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FORT BEND...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN WALLER AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS
COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM CST...

At 1027 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brookshire, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Katy, Brookshire, Hockley, Pattison, Cypress, and Willowbrook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST for southeastern
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2973 9596 2981 9605 3010 9578 2994 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 231DEG 25KT 2981 9594

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Wood

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1105 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     Tornado          1 W Cypress             29.97N 95.69W
12/28/2024                   Harris             TX   Public

            Sighted near the intersection of Highway 290
            and Spring Cypress Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     Tornado          3 WNW Splendora         30.25N 95.20W
12/28/2024                   Montgomery         TX   Public

            Tornado sighted near the FM 2090 and
            Splendora High School area with a lot of
            debris.

&&