Tornado Warning 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the area this morning into this
afternoon bringing the potential for severe storms and locally heavy
rainfall.  High pressure will briefly dry things out on Monday,
before another round of light showers arrives Tuesday.  Much colder
and drier conditions expected Wednesday thru the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Strong to Severe Storms Expected this Morning and Afternoon Ahead
of a Strong Cold Front

2) Tornado Watch in Effect through 1pm EST

3) Moderate to Heavy Downpours May Lead to Nuisance Flooding through
this Afternoon, Mainly Along the Blue Ridge Escarpment

4) Winds Increase through this Afternoon Ahead of the Front Becoming
Gusty

Main change this update is that a Tornado Watch was issued this
morning for NE GA, the SC Upstate, and the NC Piedmont and portions
of the NC Foothills and is in effect through 1pm EST.

Otherwise, patchy to locally dense fog continues this morning across
the forecast area, especially east of the mountains thanks to cold
air damming. Not anticipating the need for a Dense Fog Advisory this
morning heavier rain ahead of an approaching cold front will push
across the forecast area throughout the early morning hours and will
help scour out any remaining dense fog through daybreak. Light to
moderate rain also continues lifting north across the western half
of the forecast area this morning. Lows this morning will end up ~20
degrees above climo thanks to thick low clouds and precip.

Attention now turns to the severe weather potential this morning
into this afternoon as a strong cold front pushes across the
forecast area. Already seeing some thunderstorms pushing into the
southern NC mountains this morning ahead of the front. Winds will
gradually increase ahead of the front this morning and early
afternoon becoming gusty. Opted not to issue a Wind Advisory as any
locations that could see gusts flirt near advisory criteria will be
confined to the higher elevations of the NC mountains. The front
will gradually erode the wedge through the morning hours, allowing
us to gradually destabilize through the day. Although SBCAPE looks
minimal through the morning, 40-50 kts of deep layer shear and a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE will allow strong to severe storms to
develop. This afternoon deep layer shear increases to 50-60 kts
ahead of the front and 200-500 J/kg of SBCAPE looks to develop
(thanks to the eroding wedge). Thus, the severe threat will continue
through the afternoon hours as the front progresses east. The
primary hazard with any severe storm that develops is damaging wind
gusts but there will be a secondary isolated tornado threat as well.
Additionally, locally heavy rainfall may lead to some nuisance
flooding, mainly along the Blue Ridge Escarpment, where an
additional 1.5-3.0 inches of rain is likely to fall through early
this afternoon. CAMs agree that a strong line of convection will
develop ahead of the frontal boundary so the strongest winds are
expected to be directly along the leading edge of the line of
storms. The 06Z HRRR and NAMNest show the line of convection pushing
across the forecast area early this morning into early this
afternoon before exiting the eastern edge of the CWA around roughly
noon to 1pm. If this timing holds, then the bulk of the severe
weather threat should end prior to peak heating. However, both
models depict another line of convection developing directly along
the frontal boundary late this afternoon into early this evening
(during prime peak heating hours). Thus, another round of isolated
strong to severe storms could develop behind the main line of
convection but confidence on this is low as a residual cold pool is
likely to develop behind the bulk of the morning convection. Wind
gusts should gradually taper off late this afternoon into this
evening behind the front. Highs this afternoon will climb into the
mid 50s to mid 60s thanks to strong S/SW'ly flow ahead of the front.
Drier conditions are expected this evening into tonight behind the
front for most locations, although some NW flow rain showers look
to develop along the NC/TN border. Lows tonight will be noticeably
cooler but will still end up ~10-15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 144 AM EST Sunday: Quiet conditions will continue Monday
as a potent upper trough pulls away to the northeast and an
ill-defined ridge of high pressure overspreads the Southeast U.S.
Temperatures will climb into low 60s outside the high terrain amid
clear skies and perhaps some weak downslope flow early in the day.

Monday night, cloud cover will increase again as deep-layer
southwesterly flow develops ahead of the next upper wave.
This feature will drift across the Carolinas on Tuesday and into
Tuesday night, spurring another round of rainfall beginning before
dawn Tuesday.  Tuesday morning, temperatures will be warm enough
even in the mountains that we can expect an all-rain forecast...but
Tuesday night, locations along the NC-TN state line can expect a
brief transition to snow as temps fall below freezing.  Elsewhere,
lows will remain in the upper 30s or even low 40s...and rain will
be rapidly vanishing anyway.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 203 AM EST Sunday: The upper pattern will remain fairly
dynamic through the end of the week, with a series of upper speed
maxes pushing across the region Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
Generally speaking, it'll be too dry for any impact to the
western Carolinas, apart from ushering in much colder temperatures.
The exception will be Friday night, when a lobe of moisture dipping
off the Cumberland Plateau into the Tennessee Valley may produce a
round of NW flow snow along the NC-TN border.  For now, totals still
look sub-advisory in all but the most aggressive ensemble solutions.

Temperatures will fall below normal beginning Wednesday night...with
highs only in the low 50s through Friday, and as low as the mid
40s on Saturday...and lows in the 20s every night, even outside
the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Cold air damming is gradually eroding ahead
of a strong cold front as of 12Z. Some lingering LLWS will be a
concern for the terminals through late this morning as the wedge
gradually erodes. LIFR to IFR restrictions are returning as of 12Z
as +SHRA/TSRA track towards the terminals. Heavier showers and
thunderstorms will continue pushing east throughout the morning and
early afternoon hours. Thus, have TEMPOs and PROB30s at the
terminals this morning into this afternoon to account for TSRA and
associated restrictions. Gusty to strong and variable winds are
expected with any strong thunderstorms or heavy showers that
develop. Winds will start out SE'ly this morning before turning
SW'ly this afternoon into this evening ahead of the front. Winds
will turn WNW'ly at KAVL early this evening behind the front. Wind
speeds will gradually increase ahead of the front through early this
afternoon, becoming gusty. Winds will peak early afternoon before
gradually tapering off late this afternoon into this evening. Drier
conditions are expected to develop behind the front late this
afternoon/early evening so VFR conditions will return during this
timeframe as well.

Outlook: Dry high pressure returns briefly on Monday before another
cold front brings showers and associated restrictions back on
Tuesday. Elevation dependent rain/snow showers linger across the
mountains Tuesday, possibly moving over KAVL with brief
restrictions. Dry high pressure returns for Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
617 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-503-504-
507>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-301130-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
617 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 724 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will track across the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia this morning into early this
afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. Damaging wind gusts will be
the main hazard, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Additionally, moderate to heavy downpours may lead to isolated
nuisance flooding, mainly along the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-502-505-506-301130-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-
617 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will track across the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia this morning into early this
afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. Damaging wind gusts will be
the main hazard, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Additionally, moderate to heavy downpours may lead to isolated
nuisance flooding, mainly along the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

GAZ010-017-NCZ062-291145-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Macon NC-
558 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HABERSHAM...
NORTHWESTERN RABUN AND WESTERN MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM EST...

At 558 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hayesville to 5 miles east of Cleveland.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Sky Valley, Lake Burton,
Nantahala Lake, Black Rock Mountain State Park, Burningtown, and
Kyle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 8349 3490 8326 3475 8363 3480 8368
      3482 8365 3488 8366 3491 8363 3492 8360
      3494 8360 3495 8355 3499 8355 3500 8348
      3500 8352 3502 8352 3504 8356 3513 8362
      3514 8365 3515 8365 3515 8373 3516 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 240DEG 32KT 3504 8381 3463 8367

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
636 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

GAZ028-029-291215-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-
636 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ELBERT AND SOUTHERN HART COUNTIES
THROUGH 715 AM EST...

At 636 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles northeast of Carnesville to 11 miles
southwest of Hartwell to 3 miles northwest of Lexington. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elberton, Bowman, Bobby Brown State Park, Russell State Park, Nancy
Hart State Park, Middleton, Lake Strom Thurmond, Lake Russell, Dewy
Rose, and Broad River Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EST for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8261 3397 8264 3399 8265 3397 8278
      3401 8294 3403 8294 3404 8298 3410 8304
      3415 8306 3417 8310 3422 8308 3425 8310
      3436 8282 3427 8275 3415 8272 3413 8268
      3409 8264 3407 8265 3403 8260 3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1136Z 258DEG 34KT 3439 8317 3428 8312 3391 8313

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
719 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

NCZ052-291300-
Haywood NC-
719 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
800 AM EST...

At 719 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 21 miles south of Newport to 7 miles south of
Waynesville. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesville, Canton, Lake Junaluska, Clyde, Maggie Valley, Smoky
Mountains-Cataloochee, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area,
Cove Creek, and Fines Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 8295 3574 8292 3569 8290 3567 8288
      3564 8287 3563 8285 3561 8285 3562 8281
      3560 8280 3557 8277 3556 8278 3554 8277
      3538 8302 3540 8304 3542 8305 3543 8307
      3564 8314 3578 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 1219Z 237DEG 31KT 3567 8307 3537 8301

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TW