Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Lee trough still situated across portions of northern GA this
afternoon. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms have developed within
the unstable airmass. Thunderstorms will continue into the evening
feeding off any lingering instability/outflow boundaries. The
environment has slightly modified from yesterday with more moisture
in the mid levels and a little less DCAPE. Regardless, the atmos
remains ripe for wet microbursts. The lapse rates are also a little
steeper than yesterday afternoon. Strong thunderstorms have already
developed this afternoon and expect this trend to continue. A few
severe thunderstorms will also be possible through the evening.
Damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard. BL flow remains
very light, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

The lee trough is expected to remain in place through tomorrow as a
weak frontal boundary approaches from the west. Increasing storm
coverage is expected tomorrow afternoon. While the main potential
for strong/severe storms is along the approaching front out west, do
think there is some potential for diurnal strong/isolated severe
storms across portions of north and central GA.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Sunday Morning Through Thursday

At a glance...

 - Rain chances increasing through mid week

 - Temperatures steady and then decreasing through mid week.

Overall a wetter period through mid next week. The upper level
trough will be well settled across the Great Lakes region by the
start of the long term outlook. Models continue to stall the surface
front across the North GA and Southern TN border. As the high over
the Ohio valley moves eastward, moist flow around the western side
of the sfc high will shift eastward and move further northward. This
will likely see the stalled front "slosh" north and south through
the weekend. PoPs will be most concentrated across North GA though
showers and thunderstorms won't be out of the question further into
central and even southern GA. Upper level forcing will be weak with
the front, as the parent trough flattens/moves northeast and the sfc
low moves well into Canada. QPF will remain fairly limited through
the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms remain mostly scattered,
though locally heavy rainfall is not out of the question given
increasing PWATs from 1.5" to 2.0" through Monday. Given recent
thunderstorm activity and the surface heating available, a storms
could become gusty with a few isolated severe not completely out of
the question each afternoon. Monday through mid week will see a more
widespread increase in PoPs as the front diffuses southward and Gulf
moisture surges northward. Total forecast QPF through the full 7 day
period will likely remain between 0.5" to 1.5" for the majority of
the area.

Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s through the weekend.
Increasing cloud coverage and easterly flow will help to reinforce
cooler air mid next week. Highs will likely remain in the mid to low
80s, with some northern locations seeing highs only in the upper 70s.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Isolated/scattered afternoon convection expected this afternoon
and tomorrow afternoon. Mostly diurnal in nature. Winds may go VRB
overnight, but should primarily be on the SE side. Models are
progging a shift to the SW side tomorrow afternoon and then VRB
again overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  92  71  93 /  20  30  30  30
Atlanta         72  91  73  92 /  20  40  30  30
Blairsville     65  84  66  84 /  20  50  30  70
Cartersville    70  92  70  92 /  20  50  30  50
Columbus        73  95  73  96 /  20  20  10  20
Gainesville     70  90  71  90 /  20  50  30  40
Macon           72  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  20
Rome            70  91  71  91 /  20  50  30  60
Peachtree City  70  91  71  92 /  20  40  20  30
Vidalia         72  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
425 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-310830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
425 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into evening.
Some storms could become strong to severe with the main threats
being strong to damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected every evening through
Thursday with the main threats being gusty winds, heavy rainfall
and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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