Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Well defined lee trough in place across eastern and central portions
of the CWA. Isolated to scattered storms have mostly developed along
and south of this feature this afternoon. Additional isolated/sct
storms have developed along the ridgetops in the far NW. The
isolated to scattered activity will continue through the evening.
Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will be the
primary thunderstorm hazards.

Trough will remain in place tomorrow. Thunderstorm coverage will
likely be slightly higher than today.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

At a glance...

 - Rain chances each afternoon, generally increasing through mid
week.

 - Temperatures trend downward.

A digging trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio River valley will
push a cold-front through the northern border of the CWA Saturday
afternoon and evening. The cold-front will likely begin to stall as
it moves in, however model uncertainty as to exactly where is
elevated. Recent deterministic runs have trended further southward,
however persistence forecast would keep the front across North GA
and Southern TN. Thunderstorms along the cold front will likely be
scattered or disorganized given weak upper level forcing. Ensemble
probability of CAPE > 500 J/Kg currently sits at 50-80% across the
region, which suggests weak instability. Shear is equally as
unimpressive. PWAT values around 1.75" will likely mean
thunderstorms may produce some locally heavy rainfall, however at
this time not anticipating significant rainfall accumulations.
Afternoon thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend, with
the greatest chances near wherever the front stalls out.

As the surface high over the Ohio River Valley and the Great Lakes
moves eastward, increased moisture is allowed into the CWA from the
Gulf and Atlantic. Subsequent increased PoPs areawide may mean
better potential for wetting rains.

Temperatures through mid next week will generally trend downwards.
Highs near 90F will trend more towards the low 80s by mid next week
due to the increased cloud coverage.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

A line of thunderstorms along an outflow boundary from earlier
activity has been progressing westward over the last couple of
hours from ESE of PDK to NW of MCN. This line has been weakening
over the past hour. However, the storm upstream from PDK may hold
together as it reaches the Atlanta metro area. Have included tempo
thunderstorms between 01-03Z at metro area terminals, but suspect
the storm will mostly affect PDK before falling apart. Winds
tonight will be light and variable. Light SE-S winds will continue
on Friday, with more isolated to scattered storms across portions
of Central GA.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium for short term convection, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  71  92 /  20  30  20  20
Atlanta         73  91  72  92 /  20  30  20  30
Blairsville     66  85  66  85 /  20  30  30  60
Cartersville    70  93  71  94 /  20  30  20  40
Columbus        73  94  73  96 /  20  20  10  20
Gainesville     71  90  70  91 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           72  94  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
Rome            71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  50
Peachtree City  70  92  70  93 /  20  30  20  20
Vidalia         73  93  72  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...SEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1111 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1111 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated thunderstorms possible Friday and increasing through the
weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
830 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

GAZ022-033-034-045-300100-
North Fulton GA-DeKalb GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
830 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern DeKalb,
southwestern Forsyth, west central Gwinnett and northeastern Fulton
Counties through 900 PM EDT...

At 830 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Peachtree Corners,
moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Peachtree Corners, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta,
Dunwoody, Milton, Duluth, Norcross, Doraville, Berkeley Lake,
Brookwood, and Mechanicsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3414 8410 3388 8418 3392 8438 3417 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 104DEG 6KT 3401 8422

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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