Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

A weak frontal boundary currently stretches from the central Great
Lakes back through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. An old
outflow/pre-frontal trough has settled around or just south of the
Interstate 20 corridor. The pre-frontal trough should be the main
weather player for today, but cannot rule out some isold convection
along the actual frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening.

Isolated early morning convection should diminish before sunrise.
The boundary left behind from this convection should be the primary
focus for any afternoon/evening storms today. The pre-frontal
trough/outflow boundary is hard to find within the surface pressure
and wind field, but is a bit more discernible within the dewpoint
field - there is a bit more of a gradient. The boundary should be
located mainly between the Interstate 20 corridor and a MCN-CSG
line. The higher res models have been performing fairly decently
with placement and timing of afternoon storms the last few days, and
will stick with current trends.

Storm environment will have a little more shear to work with today
versus the last couple of days, especially in the southern CWA.
Moisture and surface convergence will also be favored in this area.
Strong storms will be likely once again, with a little better
potential than previous days for severe storm development. Some
isolated convection may be possible with the front, but the
strongest convection should remain across the south.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

At a glance:

    - Mostly dry

    - Crisp mornings

Moving into Tuesday and the start of the extended, the key player in
our sensible weather through late week will be a constant stream of
cooler, drier air at the mid-levels -- fed by northwesterly flow on
the lee side of high amplitude ridging across the Desert Southwest.
On top of that, the southern fringes of a surface high centered over
the Great Lakes look to extend southward to the Gulf coast, locking
into place a relatively benign airmass. Backward trajectories show
that the aforementioned airmass settling across Georgia and much of
the Southeast originates from across central/eastern Canada. As a
result, and most excitingly, expect crisp mornings -- especially
across north Georgia -- through the long term, with lows each night
forecast to drop into the upper 50s to 60s. Afternoon highs will
similarly fall on the cooler side, though only marginally so, in the
mid-80s to lower-90s each day.

Rain chances will be minimal to negligible through Wednesday. From
then on, our surface high begins to retrograde northward, and a
weakness in mid-level flow develops in response to ridging shifting
slightly eastward aloft. With dry, northwesterly flow weakening, low
end chances for showers and thunderstorms will reintroduce
themselves across primarily south central Georgia to round off
the work week and kick off the weekend -- rainfall totals are
likely to be sub-0.25" where storms do form.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

IFR and LIFR stuck around long enough to limit the TS chances this
afternoon for the metro sites. Can't rule out an isolated TS but
that is a very low chance. The cu field should dissipate into the
evening as winds turn NW overnight and only high cirrus
remains.Could see some low end gusts this afternoon and evening
up to 15-20kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TS chances.
High on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  89  66  88 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         69  87  67  87 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     62  80  55  80 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    66  86  62  85 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        71  92  69  92 /  50   0   0   0
Gainesville     67  87  64  87 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           69  90  68  90 /  40   0   0   0
Rome            68  86  63  85 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  67  87  64  87 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         72  92  71  90 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Hernandez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
406 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-190815-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
406 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across a
majority of the state. Some storms may become strong to severe,
especially south of Interstate 20, and capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail in addition to
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. A Slight Risk
(level 2 out of 5) is in effect for portions of central and south
central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon from Thursday through
Saturday across south central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1153 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ENE Marblehill        34.46N 84.28W
08/17/2024                   Pickens            GA   Public

            At least eight trees down along Summit Dr
            West and Summit Dr East.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1211 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Mountain Park     33.86N 84.12W
08/17/2024                   Gwinnett           GA   Public

            Tree down along the road and on powerline
            near the intersection of Miller Rd SW and
            Castle Walk Cove SW.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1225 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE Blaine            34.54N 84.55W
08/17/2024                   Pickens            GA   Emergency Mngr

            Powerlines down leading to road closure
            along Swan Bridge Road NW of Talking Rock.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1228 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Blaine                  34.51N 84.56W
08/17/2024                   Pickens            GA   Emergency Mngr

            Powerlines down leading to road closure at
            the intersection of Swan Bridge Road and
            Creek Bank Drive.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
129 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Newnan                  33.37N 84.79W
08/17/2024                   Coweta             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Some homes and vehicles damaged from falling
            trees near E Broad St and Robinson St.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ019-020-030-031-181845-
Polk GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-Floyd GA-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Paulding, southeastern Floyd, northeastern Polk and southwestern
Bartow Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 220 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Euharlee, or 9 miles
west of Cartersville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cartersville, Euharlee, Emerson, Kingston, Taylorsville, and
Stilesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 8513 3426 8500 3417 8475 3408 8477
      3402 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 302DEG 9KT 3418 8496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH