Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Storms are already beginning to fire in north Georgia but are
generally staying below severe limits. The low clouds this morning
hanging on until 11am generally limited the amount of time that area
was allowed any deferential heating. The slight risk from SPC has
been expanded northward slightly but still well south of I-20. The
main risk still exists within this slight risk along the residual
boundary from the outflow last night. This is where parameters are
overall better for a strong to damaging wind threat. The lapse rates
are marginal at best so will likely not see a severe hail threat out
of these storms today. Winds will generally gust to around 20mph
today out of the west as temps rise into the low to mid 90s over
much of the area.

The front currently approaching north GA is expected to move
southward overnight into tomorrow morning which will result in an
overall pleasant day tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s
and dewpoints in the 60s. The dry air behind the front will also
lead to a rain free day tomorrow so enjoy it if you can!

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

No significant forecast concerns or weather impacts expected in
the long term period.

Mostly dry and slightly cooler weather pattern anticipated as
high amplitude upper ridge over the western CONUS and similar high
amplitude trough over the east, centered about 300 miles east of
the state, remains nearly stationary through Thursday with strong
NNW flow in the region. Shortwave traveling south in NNWly flow
over the Midwest on Thursday should help push longwave trough back
to the west and increase moisture into the area.

After this, still seeing ensemble consensus for upper low to slip
south into the northeast Gulf and travel WSW. Big system in the
NWUS also expected to kick upper ridge east into the Midwest so
warming temps and a bit more diurnal convection expected
continuing into the weekend. Can't rule out extreme heat here by
early next week if this pattern evolves as predicted with large
upper ridge moving into the OH and TN valleys. Low predictability
that far out even with good model consensus, so will do our best
to keep that thing away.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

IFR and LIFR stuck around long enough to limit the TS chances this
afternoon for the metro sites. Can't rule out an isolated TS but
that is a very low chance. The cu field should dissipate into the
evening as winds turn NW overnight and only high cirrus remains.
Could see some low end gusts this afternoon and evening up to
15-20kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TS chances.
High on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  90  67  88 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         69  89  67  88 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     61  80  57  80 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    66  88  63  86 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        71  93  69  92 /  50   0   0   0
Gainesville     67  88  66  87 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           69  91  69  90 /  40   0   0   0
Rome            68  87  64  85 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  67  88  66  88 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         72  92  71  90 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...Hernandez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
406 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-190815-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
406 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across a
majority of the state. Some storms may become strong to severe,
especially south of Interstate 20, and capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail in addition to
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. A Slight Risk
(level 2 out of 5) is in effect for portions of central and south
central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon from Thursday through
Saturday across south central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
404 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ052-066-182030-
Heard GA-Troup GA-
404 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Heard
and northwestern Troup Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 404 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Big Springs, or 9 miles
east of Wedowee, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
LaGrange, Waresville, Frolona, Piedmont Heights, Texas, Hillcrest,
Wares Crossroads, Glenn, State Line Park, and Abbottsford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 8500 3302 8506 3299 8521 3339 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 317DEG 23KT 3329 8532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
406 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ042-182030-
Carroll GA-
406 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Carroll
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over John Tanner State Park,
or over Carrollton, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Mount Zion, Whitesburg, Clem, John Tanner State Park,
Lowell, and Seaton Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
northwestern and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3367 8513 3354 8489 3344 8492 3344 8494
      3346 8498 3345 8499 3344 8498 3343 8502
      3343 8510 3359 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 312DEG 15KT 3359 8513

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
419 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ048-049-059-182045-
Morgan GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
419 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Morgan,
northeastern Jasper and east central Newton Counties through 445 PM
EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Brick Store, or near
Covington, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Covington, Newborn, Mansfield, Farrar, and Brick Store.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central and north central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 8354 3342 8363 3358 8384 3366 8379
      3363 8372 3362 8369 3361 8370 3360 8368
      3362 8366 3357 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 295DEG 24KT 3359 8377

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
424 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ053>055-057-182100-
Fayette GA-Clayton GA-Coweta GA-Henry GA-
424 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Fayette,
west central Henry, northeastern Coweta and central Clayton Counties
through 500 PM EDT...

At 424 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Fayetteville, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Peachtree City, Riverdale, Tyrone, Lovejoy,
Palmetto, Bonanza, Cannongate, Jw Smith Reservoir, Sandy Creek, and
Irondale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
north central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 8462 3350 8462 3350 8461 3351 8461
      3351 8460 3353 8435 3341 8426 3338 8446
      3338 8461 3345 8467 3351 8467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 295DEG 27KT 3350 8447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
428 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Midtown           33.78N 84.38W
08/18/2024                   Fulton             GA   Public

            A large tree was downed onto power lines on
            Piedmont Avenue NE near 8th Street NE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
439 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ066-078-182115-
Harris GA-Troup GA-
439 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Troup
and northwestern Harris Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 439 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Piedmont Heights, or 9
miles west of LaGrange, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
LaGrange, West Point, Piedmont Heights, Cannonville, Jones
Crossroads, Baughs Crossroads, State Line Park, Abbottsford, Smiths
Crossroad, Whitesville-Pine Lake, and Long Cane.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 8513 3285 8490 3274 8501 3273 8511
      3276 8514 3278 8512 3281 8517 3283 8517
      3285 8515 3286 8519 3313 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 331DEG 27KT 3300 8518

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH