Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Strong line of storms continues to progress towards the CWA. Eastern
portion of the line in north TN has become very outflow dominate,
with outflow boundary rushing ahead of the storms per KOHX. This is
good news for much of north GA, as this will undercut most of the
severe potential from these storms, though strong gusty winds will
remain possible. However, we have seen some development along the
western portions of the line in western/central TN with some QLCS
structures noted and new development in northern AL with some
transient supercell structures. This may push into portions of far
NW GA tonight, and as such, a tornado watch is in effect in the far
NW counties. These areas remain in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3
of 5) through 8am.

The expectation is that even if storms enter the area with severe
potential, they should begin to wind down pretty quickly.
Substantial EML is in place across much of GA around 700 mb, and
while a combination of WAA and moisture pooling is keeping
temperatures elevated, we have still cooled enough to create
substantial capping. This will have impacts on updraft momentum and
should lead to weakening of storms despite an otherwise favorable
environment. However, still can't rule out seeing something produce
a damaging wind gust as it moves further south into the metro as
this all pushes through.

Substantial uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution for
this afternoon. Morning MCS that pushes into GA is expected to
weaken, but effects of it will remain into the afternoon across the
area. Cloud cover will likely limit surface heating which may limit
instability parameters. We see this play out in the 00Z HRRR for
instance, where northern GA and much of central GA only reach the
lower 80s for highs, rather than previously forecast upper 80s and
lower 90s. But, if cloud cover clears fast, or MCS does not progress
as far south, instability will be substantial during the afternoon
with MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg. There is also some diabatic
heating of the upper levels that will have occurred with line,
though this may be offset somewhat by advection of some better lapse
rates as the upper level shortwave moves by the area. Given we
remain on the edge of strong subtropical ridge with wave passing by,
strong westerly flow aloft will be in place allowing for 0-6 km
shear values of 30-40 kts during the early afternoon. Thinking that
given the progression of the MCS, the best chances of a severe storm
in the afternoon will be in central GA just ahead of the remnant
outflow. Still could see some stronger and possible a severe storm
form on the backside of the boundary in north GA and the metro if
enough daytime heating can occur. Storms will also have the cold
front pushing in to aid in initiation in north GA, though lack of
convergence along the front may limit the effectiveness of this.
Primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds, though can't
rule out a tornado threat along the outflow boundary if a storm can
ingest vorticity along it just right. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
is in effect through the afternoon and evening hours.

"Cold" front moves through the area into the evening and surges
through overnight. This will be less a break from the heat (it's
almost June, welcome to Georgia) and more a break from the higher
humidity values as drier air pushes in. Forecast highs are in the
80s and lower 90s for areas outside the mountains.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The extended forecast starts off dry as high pressure slowly
builds in from the northern plains and western great lake states.
With this ridge and drier airmass will come slightly cooler temps
for the middle to the end of the week. Temps Wed through Fri will
see highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s. Moisture begins to
creep back in for the weekend and could see precip chances move
back in for Sat/Sun.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR to MVFR for the metro area. Convection continues from CSG to
MCN, requiring tempo for IFR to LIFR conditions in heavier
rainfall. Tempo for metro this afternoon for possible isolated
tsra. Winds could be gusty in convection. Winds calm overnight
out of SW turning to NW tomorrow morning. VFR conditions tonight
through tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium Low convection in Metro this afternoon.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  88  62  85 /  20   0   0   0
Atlanta         66  88  65  84 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     58  79  54  76 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    62  86  59  83 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        68  91  66  89 /  40   0   0  10
Gainesville     65  85  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           67  90  65  89 /  30   0   0   0
Rome            63  87  60  83 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  64  88  63  85 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         71  91  67  90 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
554 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
554 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A line of showers and thunderstorms, some being strong to severe,
is moving south through North GA this morning. Damaging winds,
large hail, and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats.
Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will also accompany
the line of storms. This line is expected to move South and East
across the state today exiting the area late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There may still be some isolated storms across east central GA
Tuesday morning but they will move east of the area just after
daybreak. A drier forecast is expected through the end of the
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1050 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ENE Thomas Crossroads 33.42N 84.63W
05/27/2024                   Coweta             GA   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 3
            ENE Thomas Crossroads to include
            neighborhood name: Highland Park Estates.
            Public reports multiple trees down (some on
            homes) and a power pole snapped near its
            base. Tornado possible.

&&

KME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1059 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

GAZ066-067-078-271530-
Harris GA-Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
1059 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Meriwether, Troup
and northern Harris Counties through 1130 AM EDT...

At 1059 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Long Cane, or 7 miles
north of Lanett, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
LaGrange, Greenville, Manchester, West Point, Pine Mountain,
Woodbury, Warm Springs, Gay, Pine Mountain-Callaway Gardens, F.d.
Roosevelt State Park, Mountville, Cannonville, Louise, Odessadale,
Stovall, Piedmont Heights, Big Springs, Whitesville-Pine Lake, Rocky
Mount, and Saint Marks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 8461 3305 8456 3285 8457 3284 8464
      3285 8470 3284 8470 3280 8515 3281 8517
      3283 8517 3285 8515 3286 8519 3306 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1459Z 264DEG 38KT 3297 8516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1130 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

GAZ066-067-078-271600-
Harris GA-Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
1130 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Meriwether, southern Troup and northern Harris Counties through NOON
EDT...

At 1130 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Huguley, or near
Lanett, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
LaGrange, Hamilton, Greenville, West Point, Pine Mountain, Warm
Springs, Pine Mountain-Callaway Gardens, Shiloh, F.d. Roosevelt State
Park, Raleigh, Mountville, Cannonville, Odessadale, Stovall, Big
Springs, Durand, Jones Crossroads, Baughs Crossroads, Harris City,
and Pine Mountain Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 8475 3296 8462 3284 8467 3284 8470
      3280 8469 3274 8472 3275 8514 3277 8514
      3278 8512 3281 8517 3283 8517 3285 8515
      3286 8519 3298 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1530Z 260DEG 44KT 3285 8526

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

GAZ067>069-271615-
Upson GA-Meriwether GA-Pike GA-
1148 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Meriwether, southern Pike and northwestern Upson Counties through
1215 PM EDT...

At 1148 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Harris City, or near
Greenville, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Zebulon, Greenville, Woodbury, Warm Springs, Molena,
Meansville, Sunset Village, Lincoln Park, Concord, Raleigh, Atwater,
Lifsey Springs, Sprewell Bluff State Park, Crest, Sunnyside, Hannahs
Mill, Harris City, and Imlac.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 8431 3298 8427 3285 8431 3286 8449
      3288 8448 3288 8450 3287 8453 3288 8473
      3305 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1548Z 268DEG 28KT 3296 8468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1253 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Mineral Bluff     34.92N 84.25W
05/27/2024                   Fannin             GA   Public

            Public reports downed trees and power lines
            blocking the roadway near the intersection
            of Cutcane Rd and Dead Rd.

&&

KME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

GAZ069-079>081-271830-
Taylor GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-Talbot GA-
155 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Upson,
west central Crawford, central Talbot and northern Taylor Counties
through 230 PM EDT...

At 155 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Talbotton, moving east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Talbotton, Junction City, Geneva, Baldwinville, Olive Branch,
Po Biddy Crossroads, Howard, Salem, Prattsburg, Carsonville, Wesley
Church, and Fickling Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for
central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3280 8418 3267 8409 3253 8416 3255 8445
      3256 8445 3256 8449 3255 8449 3256 8466
      3272 8467
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 265DEG 29KT 3264 8457

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH