Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
650 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Strong line of storms continues to progress towards the CWA. Eastern
portion of the line in north TN has become very outflow dominate,
with outflow boundary rushing ahead of the storms per KOHX. This is
good news for much of north GA, as this will undercut most of the
severe potential from these storms, though strong gusty winds will
remain possible. However, we have seen some development along the
western portions of the line in western/central TN with some QLCS
structures noted and new development in northern AL with some
transient supercell structures. This may push into portions of far
NW GA tonight, and as such, a tornado watch is in effect in the far
NW counties. These areas remain in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3
of 5) through 8am.

The expectation is that even if storms enter the area with severe
potential, they should begin to wind down pretty quickly.
Substantial EML is in place across much of GA around 700 mb, and
while a combination of WAA and moisture pooling is keeping
temperatures elevated, we have still cooled enough to create
substantial capping. This will have impacts on updraft momentum and
should lead to weakening of storms despite an otherwise favorable
environment. However, still can't rule out seeing something produce
a damaging wind gust as it moves further south into the metro as
this all pushes through.

Substantial uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution for
this afternoon. Morning MCS that pushes into GA is expected to
weaken, but effects of it will remain into the afternoon across the
area. Cloud cover will likely limit surface heating which may limit
instability parameters. We see this play out in the 00Z HRRR for
instance, where northern GA and much of central GA only reach the
lower 80s for highs, rather than previously forecast upper 80s and
lower 90s. But, if cloud cover clears fast, or MCS does not progress
as far south, instability will be substantial during the afternoon
with MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg. There is also some diabatic
heating of the upper levels that will have occurred with line,
though this may be offset somewhat by advection of some better lapse
rates as the upper level shortwave moves by the area. Given we
remain on the edge of strong subtropical ridge with wave passing by,
strong westerly flow aloft will be in place allowing for 0-6 km
shear values of 30-40 kts during the early afternoon. Thinking that
given the progression of the MCS, the best chances of a severe storm
in the afternoon will be in central GA just ahead of the remnant
outflow. Still could see some stronger and possible a severe storm
form on the backside of the boundary in north GA and the metro if
enough daytime heating can occur. Storms will also have the cold
front pushing in to aid in initiation in north GA, though lack of
convergence along the front may limit the effectiveness of this.
Primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds, though can't
rule out a tornado threat along the outflow boundary if a storm can
ingest vorticity along it just right. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
is in effect through the afternoon and evening hours.

"Cold" front moves through the area into the evening and surges
through overnight. This will be less a break from the heat (it's
almost June, welcome to Georgia) and more a break from the higher
humidity values as drier air pushes in. Forecast highs are in the
80s and lower 90s for areas outside the mountains.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The extended forecast starts off dry as high pressure slowly
builds in from the northern plains and western great lake states.
With this ridge and drier airmass will come slightly cooler temps
for the middle to the end of the week. Temps Wed through Fri will
see highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s. Moisture begins to
creep back in for the weekend and could see precip chances move
back in for Sat/Sun.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
A line of storms is moving into the ATL area and should be
affecting the TAF sites with in the next few hours. The line is
weakening some but still expecting some storms to move through
the tAF sites soon. This is the 1st line to move through and we
should see some redevelopment this afternoon. Will have ceilings
mainly in the MVFR to IFR range all day with ceilings lifting
into the VFR range by 22z-00z Things clear out just after sunset
with drier air moving into the area tonight. Winds will stay
mainly out of the SW to NW in the 6-12kt range. Will see some
higher gust in and around any convective activity this morning and
this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Confidence medium to high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  88  62  85 /  20   0   0   0
Atlanta         66  88  65  84 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     58  79  54  76 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    62  86  59  83 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        68  91  66  89 /  30   0   0  10
Gainesville     65  85  62  82 /  20   0   0   0
Macon           67  90  65  89 /  30   0   0   0
Rome            63  87  60  83 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  64  88  63  85 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         71  91  67  90 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
554 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
554 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A line of showers and thunderstorms, some being strong to severe,
is moving south through North GA this morning. Damaging winds,
large hail, and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats.
Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will also accompany
the line of storms. This line is expected to move South and East
across the state today exiting the area late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There may still be some isolated storms across east central GA
Tuesday morning but they will move east of the area just after
daybreak. A drier forecast is expected through the end of the
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
635 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 S Ball Ground         34.29N 84.38W
05/27/2024  M58 MPH          Cherokee           GA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UGA74 Ball Ground.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
657 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

GAZ021-022-030>034-041>047-271130-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Carroll GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-Paulding GA-
South Fulton GA-Polk GA-North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-
Haralson GA-Cherokee GA-DeKalb GA-
657 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Paulding, DeKalb,
central Carroll, Douglas, southwestern Gwinnett, northeastern
Rockdale, southwestern Cherokee, southwestern Forsyth, Haralson,
Cobb, west central Walton, Fulton and Polk Counties through 730 AM
EDT...

At 657 AM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Duluth to New Hope to near Esom Hill, and moving south
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Marietta, Douglasville, Carrollton, Decatur, Dallas,
Cedartown, Buchanan, Peachtree Corners, City of South Fulton, Sandy
Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody, East
Point, Milton, Kennesaw, and Duluth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8480 3408 8466 3411 8466 3417 8425
      3372 8385 3372 8387 3374 8391 3371 8391
      3365 8435 3365 8446 3363 8446 3360 8470
      3356 8532 3402 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 1057Z 344DEG 23KT 3400 8413 3395 8481 3391 8538

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
659 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

GAZ022>025-027-034>037-047-271130-
Madison GA-Banks GA-Hall GA-Jackson GA-Walton GA-Barrow GA-
Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
659 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Oconee,
Barrow, central Forsyth, eastern Gwinnett, Banks, northwestern
Clarke, northern Walton, Hall, Jackson and Madison Counties through
730 AM EDT...

At 659 AM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Pinefield Crossroads to near Lawrenceville, and
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Lawrenceville, Winder, Monroe, Jefferson, Commerce,
Cumming, Homer, Danielsville, Duluth, Sugar Hill, Snellville,
Suwanee, Buford, Loganville, Braselton, Auburn, Flowery Branch,
Dacula, and Oakwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3443 8361 3449 8354 3446 8340 3442 8338
      3432 8339 3427 8334 3424 8334 3426 8330
      3425 8327 3424 8317 3427 8311 3423 8308
      3416 8310 3372 8385 3403 8413 3405 8410
      3406 8415 3418 8426 3450 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1059Z 305DEG 27KT 3443 8336 3397 8407

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
742 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NNE Cedartown         34.07N 85.22W
05/27/2024                   Polk               GA   Emergency Mngr

            Several trees down on Lake Creek Rd.

&&

KME