River Flood Warning 283, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
651 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Key Messages

 - Strong winds and heavy rainfall from Helene will continue in
   the region this morning.

 - Conditions will improve rapidly this afternoon as precipitation
   ends and winds weaken.

Today:

At 3 AM, Helene was moving northwards through central Georgia. The
storm made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida around 11 PM
yesterday as a category 4 storm. As of the last update from the
National Hurricane Center the storm was a category 1 hurricane. The
storm should continue to decrease in intensity as it moves into
north Georgia this morning. While the intensity may be falling, the
storm remains dangerous. Additional tree and power line damage is
probable as the storm moves northwards. Heavy tropical downpours
will also continue to exacerbate flooding concerns.

As we move into the late morning and early afternoon the rainfall
and winds from Helene will gradually diminish as what remains of the
system continues to rocket northwards. Guidance from the HREF favors
a few lingering upslope rain showers over the north Georgia
mountains this afternoon. Otherwise the rest of north and central
Georgia should be rain free by early afternoon. Though the rain will
have largely ended, local rivers and streams will continue to rise
as runoff filters through the drainage basins. Anyone with
interests that could be subject to river or stream flooding should
continue to monitor the river forecasts closely.

Tonight and Saturday:

The remnants of Helene should be absorbed into an upper level trough
over the Tennessee Valley tonight and Saturday. This should lead to
increased rainfall over Tennessee and Kentucky, and some of this
activity could wrap around into northern Georgia. A couple isolated
showers could develop as far south as central Georgia with the
diurnal heating Saturday afternoon. Any rainfall during this period
should be light and scattered, with most locations receiving less
than 0.10 inches of additional precipitation. Other than the minimal
precipitation chances, no significant weather impacts are expected
for storm clean up activities. Peak wind gusts should be in the 20
to 25 mph range Saturday afternoon and high temperatures will be in
the 70s.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Key Messages:

 - Due to excessive rainfall from Hurricane Helene river flooding
   will likely linger into the workweek, especially along the
   main stem rivers.

 - Dry weather and near average temperatures will prevail through
   the upcoming workweek.

Sunday through the Workweek:

Upper level troughing should hangout over the central Appalachians
through early next week. This will allow a slight chance of
thunderstorms to linger over the north Georgia mountains through
Monday. Given the saturated soils any thunderstorms could pose a
localized flooding risk. Drier air wrapping around the trough from
the west should help keep the rest of Georgia dry Sunday and Monday.

Ensemble guidance shifts the trough east into the Atlantic during
the second half of the workweek As this occurs an upper level ridge
should build in over the Southeast. Forecast confidence is high that
this will result in continued dry weather through the end of the
workweek (72 of 80 GEFS & EPS members produce less than 0.1 inches
or precipitation in Atlanta through next Friday). The overall
strength of the upper level ridge looks modest and this should keep
afternoon high temperatures near seasonal averages all week
(around 80 degrees).

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

As Tropical Storm Helene continues to move through northern
Georgia this morning the region will continue to see gusty winds,
bursts of tropical rain and lower ceilings. Winds will generally
be from a westerly direction with gusts in the 25 to 35 kt range.
Isolated gusts to 50 kt may occur in eastern Georgia before 15Z.
Ceilings and visibilities will remain in the IFR/LIFR range
through 15Z today, then conditions should improve to MVFR/VFR by
22Z today. Prevailing VFR conditions are probable between 22Z
today and 18Z Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate.
Moderate confidence in winds speeds, wind direction, ceilings and
visibilities.
High confidence in the end time for precipitation.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  80  64  81 /  10  10  10  10
Atlanta         63  78  64  80 /  10  20  10  10
Blairsville     58  70  59  73 /  20  50  30  40
Cartersville    63  78  62  80 /  20  30  10  10
Columbus        64  83  65  85 /   0  10  10   0
Gainesville     62  76  64  78 /  10  20  20  10
Macon           64  83  66  84 /   0  10  10   0
Rome            64  75  62  80 /  30  40  10  20
Peachtree City  62  79  62  81 /  10  20  10  10
Vidalia         66  86  67  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-
030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Albright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
604 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
604 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Tropical Storm Helene will continue to produce and elevated risk
for flash flooding and river flooding in north Georgia through
this morning. Gusty winds will also occur and may result in areas
of downed trees and power lines. Please use caution if traveling
and avoid crossing any flooded roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over northern Georgia
between Saturday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation tonight into Friday
morning. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
750 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Flood            1 NW Between            33.84N 83.82W
09/26/2024                   Walton             GA   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

&&

TV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
751 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 E Sandersville        32.97N 82.74W
09/27/2024                   Washington         GA   Public

            Report from mPING: Trees uprooted or
            snapped;.

&&

TV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
752 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     Flood            3 NE Hampton            33.42N 84.25W
09/26/2024                   Henry              GA   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

&&

TV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
753 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     Flood            1 NE Duluth             34.01N 84.13W
09/26/2024                   Gwinnett           GA   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

&&

TV

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