River Flood Warning 255, NWS Atlanta, GA

135 
WGUS82 KFFC 270357
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1157 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...Forecast flooding changed to Minor severity and increased in 
duration for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Alcovy River at New Hope Road near Grayson affecting Walton and 
  Gwinnett Counties.

For the Alcovy River Basin...including Grayson...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&

GAC135-297-271545-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0255.000000T0000Z-240927T1532Z/
/ALCG1.1.ER.240927T0022Z.240927T0315Z.240927T0932Z.UU/
1157 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alcovy River at New Hope Road near Grayson.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding 
  begins of the woodlands upstream and downstream from the river 
  gauge at New Hope Road.
  At 11.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins. Significant flooding 
  expands further into the woodlands upstream and downstream from 
  the river gauge at New Hope Road. The water level reaches the 
  bottom of the bridge. County officials may need to close the 
  bridge due to erosion to the banks on the sides of the bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:45 PM EDT Thursday the stage was 10.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river level has leveled out near 10.5 feet.
    However, with additional rainfall overnight it may begin to
    rise again closer to 11 feet.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.7 feet on 08/31/2020.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3391 8394 3394 8392 3396 8388 3383 8374
      3379 8379


$$

TAC

145 
WGUS82 KFFC 270759
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
359 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Alcovy River at New Hope Road near Grayson affecting Walton and 
  Gwinnett Counties.

For the Alcovy River Basin...including Grayson...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&

GAC135-297-272000-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0255.000000T0000Z-240928T0355Z/
/ALCG1.1.ER.240927T0022Z.240927T1500Z.240927T2155Z.UU/
359 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alcovy River at New Hope Road near Grayson.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding 
  begins of the woodlands upstream and downstream from the river 
  gauge at New Hope Road.
  At 11.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins. Significant flooding 
  expands further into the woodlands upstream and downstream from 
  the river gauge at New Hope Road. The water level reaches the 
  bottom of the bridge. County officials may need to close the 
  bridge due to erosion to the banks on the sides of the bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:30 AM EDT Friday the stage was 9.9 feet.
  - Forecast...With additional heavy rainfall overnight, the
    river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.7 feet late this
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage late this
    afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.7 feet on 08/31/2020.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3391 8394 3394 8392 3396 8388 3383 8374
      3379 8379


$$

TAC

210 
WGUS82 KFFC 271937
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
337 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Alcovy River at New Hope Road near Grayson affecting Gwinnett and 
  Walton Counties.

For the Alcovy River Basin...including Grayson...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&

GAC135-297-280400-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0255.000000T0000Z-240928T0355Z/
/ALCG1.1.ER.240927T0022Z.240927T1600Z.240927T2113Z.UU/
337 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and forecast to continue.

* WHERE...Alcovy River at New Hope Road near Grayson.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 10 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand further 
  into the woodlands upstream and downstream from the river gauge at 
  New Hope Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:15 PM EDT Friday the stage was 10.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this afternoon and continue falling to 7.2 feet this
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 9 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3391 8394 3394 8392 3396 8388 3383 8374
      3379 8379


$$

162 
WGUS82 KFFC 272140
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
540 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Alcovy River at New Hope Road near Grayson affecting Gwinnett and 
  Walton Counties.

GAC135-297-272245-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0255.000000T0000Z-240927T2140Z/
/ALCG1.1.ER.240927T0022Z.240927T1600Z.240927T2109Z.UU/
540 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Alcovy River at New Hope Road near Grayson.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 PM EDT Friday the stage was 8.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 7.2 feet this
    evening.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3391 8394 3394 8392 3396 8388 3383 8374
      3379 8379


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Hurricane Helene is now a major hurricane and positioned due south
of the Big Bend region of Florida. Helene is an expansive system
with impacts expected to occur well away from the storm center.
The storm will continue to accelerate northward before making
landfall tonight. Rain on the north side of Helene continues to
spread northward across the forecast area. With steady rainfall
and saturated soils from yesterday's rain, a couple of flash flood
warnings have already been issued near and south of the Atlanta
metro area. As the center of the storm draws closer, rainfall
rates are forecast to increase from south to north overnight into
Friday. With additional rainfall amounts forecast to range from
4-8 inches with localized amounts over 10 inches over a wide swath
from west- central Georgia to far northeast Georgia, it will be
likely to see widespread flash flooding with some areas
experiencing significant flash flooding and moderate to major
river flooding.

The existing Hurricane Warning has been expanded north and east to
include Butts, Jasper, Jones, Laurens, Pike, Spalding, Wheeler,
and Wilkinson counties. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect across the remainder of north and central Georgia.
Tropical storm and hurricane force wind gusts, potentially
exceeding 80 mph, are expected to begin across the southern
portion of the forecast area tonight, then quickly spread north
overnight into Friday morning. Hurricane Force wind gusts will be
possible for some locations including the Atlanta Metro extending
eastward towards Athens and in the higher terrain of the northeast
Georgia mountains. Outside of these locations, Tropical Storm
force wind gusts are expected all the way up to the border with
Tennessee and North Carolina. Given the saturated soils,
widespread downing of trees and significant power outages are
expected. Prepare for an extended period of power loss!

King/KAB

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

No major changes have been made to the forecast other than tweaks to
the wind forecast based on the latest NHC Helene track.

Hurricane Helene continues to intensify over the E Gulf of Mexico,
with expected landfall around the FL Big Bend area this evening.
Helene will be moving quickly N after she makes landfall, with a
potentially large area under the threat of hurricane or tropical
storm force winds overnight tonight into Friday morning.

The Predecessor Rain Event from Wednesday saturated soils across
much of the area, so additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches
across much of the area are likely. Locally higher amounts are
possible, particularly in the more persistent, training rain bands
and over the NE terrain. WPC has much of the area under a high
excessive rainfall risk. The area-wide Flood Watch remains in effect.

The risk of tornadoes continues, mainly along and to the E of
Helene's path. We've already seen rotating cells over the SE corner
of the County Warning Area (CWA). That area is also closer to some
sizable breaks in the overcast across the JAX CWA and more unstable
air. However, even low CAPE values will support isolated tornadoes.
SPC issued a Tornado Watch earlier which remains valid until this
evening. We have opted to expand this watch a bit farther to the W.
Additional expansions are possible, followed by a possible new watch
later.

Preparations for strong winds and additional heavy rainfall should
be rushed to completion before sunset today!

/SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Fortunately, much quieter conditions are expected next week in the
wake of Helene. Aside from ongoing flooding concerns on rivers and
larger waterways, only minimal PoPs are included in far north
Georgia around the lingering cutoff low through the weekend.

The remainder of the long term period next week currently looks dry.
The cutoff low finally lifts northeastward and weak northwest flow
aloft builds into the region before weak ridging builds eastward by
late week. Temperatures will be largely near seasonal averages.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Widespread SHRA is ongoing at all TAF sites on the north side of
Hurricane Helene. IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to persist
through the overnight hours and through mid-morning ahead of
Helene and as it moves northward through Georgia. Lowest
visibilities will be within the tropical rainbands overnight into
Friday morning. Winds will steadily increase tonight. Highest
wind gusts are expected between 08-09Z and daybreak at all TAF
sites, with gusts up to 75 kts at MCN and 50-55 kts at the ATL
sites. Wind directions will be from NE overnight into the early
morning, shifting to SW by daybreak and through much of the day on
Friday. Winds will gradually diminish after mid-morning, but
remain gusty throughout the day. As Helene continues north,
ceilings will improve to MVFR by 17-18Z and VFR by 22-23Z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  76  62  79 / 100  40  10  10
Atlanta         66  74  63  77 / 100  40  10  10
Blairsville     62  71  58  68 / 100 100  30  50
Cartersville    64  75  63  77 / 100  70  20  20
Columbus        66  79  63  82 / 100  10   0  10
Gainesville     67  74  63  75 / 100  60  20  20
Macon           68  79  63  82 / 100  10   0   0
Rome            66  75  63  76 / 100  80  30  30
Peachtree City  64  75  61  78 / 100  30  10  10
Vidalia         72  83  65  85 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-
030>039-041>055-057-060>062-066-067-073>076-078-085-086-098-112-
113.

Hurricane Warning for GAZ056-058-059-068>072-079>084-089>097-
102>111.

&&

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
917 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-280130-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
917 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Rounds of torrential rainfall and significant flooding and flash
flooding are expected across the area through through the
overnight hours. Brief tornadoes will also be possible,
especially across east central Georgia. As Hurricane Helene moves
into the state tonight, hurricane and tropical storm force winds
will spread quickly north. All preparations for widespread high
wind impacts and power outages should be rushed to completion by
this evening.

For more details, please refer to the latest Flash Flood Watch
and Hurricane Local Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Heavy rain and tropical storm force winds will be ongoing across
portions of north Georgia Friday morning. Heavy rain and tropical
storm conditions will improve as Helene moves quickly north and
out of the state by midday Friday. Flooding of larger creeks and
rivers will persist into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation tonight into Friday
morning. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
841 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Flash Flood      2 SE Williamson         33.16N 84.34W
09/26/2024                   Pike               GA   Emergency Mngr

            Flooding on Hunter Road.

&&

KAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
842 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Flash Flood      2 SSW Molena            32.98N 84.51W
09/26/2024                   Pike               GA   Emergency Mngr

            Flooding reported on Dripping Rock Road.

&&

KAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
843 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Flash Flood      3 ENE Zebulon           33.12N 84.30W
09/26/2024                   Pike               GA   Emergency Mngr

            Flooding on Grady Maddox Road.

&&

KAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
856 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     Flash Flood      3 SE Six Flags Over Geo 33.74N 84.51W
09/26/2024                   Fulton             GA   911 Call Center

            Stalled vehicle in water at intersection of
            Fairburn Road and Benjamin E. Mays Drive.

&&

KAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
904 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     Flash Flood      Chastain Memorial Park  33.88N 84.39W
09/26/2024                   Fulton             GA   Local Official

            Lake Forrest Drive NW closed between Barbara
            Lane NW and W Wieuca Road NE due to
            flooding.

&&

KAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
915 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Gresham Park      33.69N 84.34W
09/26/2024                   DeKalb             GA   Local Official

            Flooding on road at intersection of Old
            Constitution Road and Constitution Road.

&&

KAB