Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Hurricane Helene is now a major hurricane and positioned due south
of the Big Bend region of Florida. Helene is an expansive system
with impacts expected to occur well away from the storm center.
The storm will continue to accelerate northward before making
landfall tonight. Rain on the north side of Helene continues to
spread northward across the forecast area. With steady rainfall
and saturated soils from yesterday's rain, a couple of flash flood
warnings have already been issued near and south of the Atlanta
metro area. As the center of the storm draws closer, rainfall
rates are forecast to increase from south to north overnight into
Friday. With additional rainfall amounts forecast to range from
4-8 inches with localized amounts over 10 inches over a wide swath
from west- central Georgia to far northeast Georgia, it will be
likely to see widespread flash flooding with some areas
experiencing significant flash flooding and moderate to major
river flooding.

The existing Hurricane Warning has been expanded north and east to
include Butts, Jasper, Jones, Laurens, Pike, Spalding, Wheeler,
and Wilkinson counties. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect across the remainder of north and central Georgia.
Tropical storm and hurricane force wind gusts, potentially
exceeding 80 mph, are expected to begin across the southern
portion of the forecast area tonight, then quickly spread north
overnight into Friday morning. Hurricane Force wind gusts will be
possible for some locations including the Atlanta Metro extending
eastward towards Athens and in the higher terrain of the northeast
Georgia mountains. Outside of these locations, Tropical Storm
force wind gusts are expected all the way up to the border with
Tennessee and North Carolina. Given the saturated soils,
widespread downing of trees and significant power outages are
expected. Prepare for an extended period of power loss!

King/KAB

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

No major changes have been made to the forecast other than tweaks to
the wind forecast based on the latest NHC Helene track.

Hurricane Helene continues to intensify over the E Gulf of Mexico,
with expected landfall around the FL Big Bend area this evening.
Helene will be moving quickly N after she makes landfall, with a
potentially large area under the threat of hurricane or tropical
storm force winds overnight tonight into Friday morning.

The Predecessor Rain Event from Wednesday saturated soils across
much of the area, so additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches
across much of the area are likely. Locally higher amounts are
possible, particularly in the more persistent, training rain bands
and over the NE terrain. WPC has much of the area under a high
excessive rainfall risk. The area-wide Flood Watch remains in effect.

The risk of tornadoes continues, mainly along and to the E of
Helene's path. We've already seen rotating cells over the SE corner
of the County Warning Area (CWA). That area is also closer to some
sizable breaks in the overcast across the JAX CWA and more unstable
air. However, even low CAPE values will support isolated tornadoes.
SPC issued a Tornado Watch earlier which remains valid until this
evening. We have opted to expand this watch a bit farther to the W.
Additional expansions are possible, followed by a possible new watch
later.

Preparations for strong winds and additional heavy rainfall should
be rushed to completion before sunset today!

/SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Fortunately, much quieter conditions are expected next week in the
wake of Helene. Aside from ongoing flooding concerns on rivers and
larger waterways, only minimal PoPs are included in far north
Georgia around the lingering cutoff low through the weekend.

The remainder of the long term period next week currently looks dry.
The cutoff low finally lifts northeastward and weak northwest flow
aloft builds into the region before weak ridging builds eastward by
late week. Temperatures will be largely near seasonal averages.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Widespread SHRA is ongoing at all TAF sites on the north side of
Hurricane Helene. IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to persist
through the overnight hours and through mid-morning ahead of
Helene and as it moves northward through Georgia. Lowest
visibilities will be within the tropical rainbands overnight into
Friday morning. Winds will steadily increase tonight. Highest
wind gusts are expected between 08-09Z and daybreak at all TAF
sites, with gusts up to 75 kts at MCN and 50-55 kts at the ATL
sites. Wind directions will be from NE overnight into the early
morning, shifting to SW by daybreak and through much of the day on
Friday. Winds will gradually diminish after mid-morning, but
remain gusty throughout the day. As Helene continues north,
ceilings will improve to MVFR by 17-18Z and VFR by 22-23Z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  76  62  79 / 100  40  10  10
Atlanta         66  74  63  77 / 100  40  10  10
Blairsville     62  71  58  68 / 100 100  30  50
Cartersville    64  75  63  77 / 100  70  20  20
Columbus        66  79  63  82 / 100  10   0  10
Gainesville     67  74  63  75 / 100  60  20  20
Macon           68  79  63  82 / 100  10   0   0
Rome            66  75  63  76 / 100  80  30  30
Peachtree City  64  75  61  78 / 100  30  10  10
Vidalia         72  83  65  85 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-
030>039-041>055-057-060>062-066-067-073>076-078-085-086-098-112-
113.

Hurricane Warning for GAZ056-058-059-068>072-079>084-089>097-
102>111.

&&

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
917 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-280130-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
917 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Rounds of torrential rainfall and significant flooding and flash
flooding are expected across the area through through the
overnight hours. Brief tornadoes will also be possible,
especially across east central Georgia. As Hurricane Helene moves
into the state tonight, hurricane and tropical storm force winds
will spread quickly north. All preparations for widespread high
wind impacts and power outages should be rushed to completion by
this evening.

For more details, please refer to the latest Flash Flood Watch
and Hurricane Local Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Heavy rain and tropical storm force winds will be ongoing across
portions of north Georgia Friday morning. Heavy rain and tropical
storm conditions will improve as Helene moves quickly north and
out of the state by midday Friday. Flooding of larger creeks and
rivers will persist into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation tonight into Friday
morning. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
856 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     Flash Flood      3 SE Six Flags Over Geo 33.74N 84.51W
09/26/2024                   Fulton             GA   911 Call Center

            Stalled vehicle in water at intersection of
            Fairburn Road and Benjamin E. Mays Drive.

&&

KAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
904 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     Flash Flood      Chastain Memorial Park  33.88N 84.39W
09/26/2024                   Fulton             GA   Local Official

            Lake Forrest Drive NW closed between Barbara
            Lane NW and W Wieuca Road NE due to
            flooding.

&&

KAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
915 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Gresham Park      33.69N 84.34W
09/26/2024                   DeKalb             GA   Local Official

            Flooding on road at intersection of Old
            Constitution Road and Constitution Road.

&&

KAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1031 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW La Vista           33.83N 84.35W
09/26/2024                   DeKalb             GA   Broadcast Media

            2 right lanes are flooded on I-85NB at the
            Dekalb/Fulton County Line.

&&

KAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1057 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     Flash Flood      2 N Atlantic Station    33.82N 84.40W
09/26/2024                   Fulton             GA   911 Call Center

            Flooding at Woodward Way NW and Peachtree
            Battle Ave NW.

&&

KAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1107 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAZ074-076-085-086-270330-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Emanuel GA-Johnson GA-
1107 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Emanuel, southeastern Washington, Johnson and southwestern Jefferson
Counties through 1130 PM EDT...

At 1107 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Norristown Junction, or
8 miles west of Swainsboro, moving northwest at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Locations impacted include...
Swainsboro, Wrightsville, Adrian, Harrison, Nunez, Riddleville, Kite,
Spann, Donovan, Norristown, Pringle, Norristown Junction, New Home,
Meeks, and Scott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for central and
east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3249 8229 3250 8249 3255 8267 3261 8267
      3264 8276 3281 8287 3294 8278 3294 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 144DEG 51KT 3254 8247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH