River Flood Warning 13, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

007 
WGUS84 KEWX 240136
FLSEWX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
836 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Nueces River At Laguna affecting Uvalde County.

  West Nueces River At Brackettville affecting Uvalde and Kinney 
  Counties.

  Nueces River Below Uvalde affecting Uvalde County.

TXC463-240245-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-240724T0136Z/
/UVAT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
836 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Nueces River At Laguna.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 1.0 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 7.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 3.3 feet tomorrow morning.
    It will then fall to 2.3 feet tomorrow evening. It will rise
    to 2.5 feet late tomorrow evening. It will then fall to 2.1
    feet early Thursday morning. It will rise to 2.3 feet late
    Thursday evening. It will then fall again and remain below
    flood stage.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

            Fld   Observed           Forecasts (9 pm CDT)     
Location    Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri          

Nueces River
Laguna      10.0  1.0   Tue 8 pm CDT 2.5   2.3   2.1          


&&

LAT...LON 2944 10003 2945 9995 2928 9990 2914 9985
      2913 9994 2926 9998


$$

TXC271-463-240245-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-240724T0136Z/
/BTVT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
836 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the West Nueces River At Brackettville.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 0.7 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 7.7
    feet tomorrow morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                 Fld   Observed           Forecasts (9 pm CDT)     
Location         Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri          

West Nueces River
Brackettville    15.0  0.7   Tue 7 pm CDT 4.4   3.0   2.8          


&&

LAT...LON 2946 10027 2952 10022 2944 10003 2926 9998
      2931 10013 2942 10012


$$

TXC463-240245-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0013.240724T1021Z-240724T0136Z/
/UVLT2.1.ER.240723T2021Z.240723T2030Z.240723T2038Z.UU/
836 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Nueces River Below Uvalde.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 0.6 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 3.4 feet late this evening.
    It will then fall to 1.4 feet tomorrow morning. It will rise
    to 6.6 feet late tomorrow evening. It will then fall again
    and remain below flood stage.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

            Fld   Observed           Forecasts (9 pm CDT)     
Location    Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Wed   Thu   Fri          

Nueces River
Uvalde      11.0  0.6   Tue 7 pm CDT 6.5   3.0   2.9          


&&

LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
      2848 9975 2880 9985


$$

BF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

A convective complex of showers and thunderstorms that developed
overnight and into early this morning across the southern Edwards
Plateau has spread east through much of the Hill Country. The
southern end of the complex is producing some impressive rainfall
rates 2-4" per hour, and slow storm motions and training has
resulted in instances of quick stream rises and flash flooding
through Kerr, Real, and Edwards counties. We have seen some ground
truth reports of 2-5 inches in the past 6 hours in this area, with
radar estimates of isolated higher amounts. Ahead of the southern end
of the complex we are seeing some feeder showers developing south
and east of San Antonio.

Concerns are increasing for flash flooding to the east, into
northern Medina, northern Bexar, Kendal, and Comal counties, should
this complex hold together as it moves east and feeder showers from
the southeast merge into the area. This area received pockets of
heavy rainfall Monday evening, and soils are becoming increasingly
saturated. While several 00Z CAMs showed the complex to the west
decaying into the mid morning and early afternoon, this has yet to
start and the complex continues to overachieve.

Therefore, we have elected to issue a small Flood Watch for Medina,
Bandera, Kerr, Kendal, and Comal counties. Any additional heavy
rainfall in this area could lead to a quick runoff response and flash
flooding in spots. We will monitor trends through the remainder of
the morning for any possible expansion.

We have raised PoPs and also lowered temperatures for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Key Messages
* The threat for locally heavy rainfall with scattered storms
  continues today.
* Isolated pockets of a quick 1-4 inches of rainfall could lead to
  flooding, especially over locations that received moderate
  rainfall yesterday.
* Be alert for flooding through the afternoon and never drive
  through a flood roadway.

Early this morning rain and isolated thunderstorms were ongoing with
activity across almost all of South Central Texas with the exception
of the coastal plains. Six hour rain totals ending at midnight show
many locations in the Hill Country with amounts from 1-3 inches,
with local amounts just north of 4.5 inches. Activity should weaken
slightly but continue during the overnight hours, although new
convection is forecast to initiate again sometime in the morning
hours after sunrise. The most favored location for the morning
activity will be again be the southern Edwards Plateau and the Hill
Country with some possibility of storms also moving into the coastal
plains. Isolated to scattered areas of flooding will be possible
today with PWATS remaining around 2 inches across the area. Will
need to especially watch out for training storms over locations that
received the most considerable rainfall yesterday and overnight
tonight as soils may be saturated leading to higher potential for
runoff and flash flooding. Morning activity is expected to move
southeast across the area through the afternoon and early evening.

The mid-level trough axis bringing upper level support for showers
and thunderstorms begins to shift east Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Hi-res and global guidance trend a bit drier for the western and
northwestern portions of the area with the best chances overnight
and into Wednesday now mainly east of I-35. Locally heavy rainfall
with storms and isolated to scattered flooding potential continues
to exist this day.

High temperatures continue to trend on the cool side with afternoon
temperatures from the low 80s to the low 90s today. Temperatures may
increase a few degrees Wednesday with lesser cloud cover expected in
the west and possibly some breaks in the clouds to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

A mid level shear axis, perhaps a closed low, lingers near or over
our area through the long term. A moist airmass with PWs of 1.5 to
2.2 inches persists over our area. Residual surface boundaries and
mesoscale features, in addition to heating and the shear axis/low
provide forcing of this moist airmass to maintain chances of showers
and thunderstorms each day. The highest chances will be mainly along
and east of I-35 where the deeper moisture is found, however could
shift to the west with time. Locally heavy rains can be expected.
With soils becoming more saturated from previous days rains, flash
flooding may become more of a threat, in addition to urban and small
stream type flooding. Forecast soundings indicate a potential for
gusty winds with the strongest storms. Later forecasts will fine
tune the POPs and QPF. Extensive cloudiness and areas of rain will
keep daytime temperatures well below normal for late July, though
they may trend closer to normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Scattered SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing this afternoon near an AUS-SAT
line. RA and embedded SHRA west of this line ongoing as well. The
western activity is expected to gradually decrease in coverage
through the afternoon. SHRA/TSRA activity near AUS/SAT line is
forecast to gradually move east 20Z-24Z, and decrease in coverage
after sunset. A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions, as well as gusty
wind speeds and erratic wind directions, are forecast in and near
SHRA/TSRA activity through the afternoon. Otherwise VFR through the
evening. Stratus and fog are forecast to develop overnight and into
Wednesday morning, producing a mix of IFR to MVFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  90  72  88 /  20  40  20  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  88  71  85 /  20  40  20  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  88  73  87 /  30  50  30  60
Burnet Muni Airport            71  89  70  86 /  10  30  10  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  95  75  97 /  40  30  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  87  71  85 /  20  30  10  40
Hondo Muni Airport             72  89  71  89 /  30  40  20  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  87  71  86 /  30  40  30  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  84  72  83 /  30  70  40  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  89  74  88 /  30  40  20  60
Stinson Muni Airport           74  90  74  88 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Bexar-Comal-
Kendall-Kerr-Medina.

&&

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...04
Aviation...76

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-240800-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
247 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through this evening across
much of South Central Texas. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with this activity which may lead to scattered flooding
across the area, especially over locations which received moderate
rainfall yesterday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Multiple rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the weekend. Any activity will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall which may lead to scattered flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
856 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     Flash Flood      6 SW Rocksprings        29.96N 100.29W
07/23/2024                   Edwards            TX   Emergency Mngr

            The Edwards County Emergency manager reports
            that Ranch Road 674 in Edwards County is
            closed due to flooding.

&&

PAY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
859 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     Flash Flood      17 ESE Devil's Sinkhole 29.99N 99.83W
07/23/2024                   Real               TX   Dept of Highways

            TxDOT shows that several low water crossings
            are flooded on Ranch Road 336.

&&

PAY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
901 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     Flash Flood      5 WSW Kerrville-Schrein 29.96N 99.21W
07/23/2024                   Kerr               TX   Emergency Mngr

            Kerr County emergency management passed
            along reports of flooding along Turtle Creek
            west of Kerrville. There is car stuck in
            high water.

&&

PAY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
903 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     Flash Flood      1 W Ingram              30.07N 99.25W
07/23/2024                   Kerr               TX   Emergency Mngr

            Kerr County emergency manager passed along
            reports of flooding along Cade Loop at
            Ingram.

&&

PAY