Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
148 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Key Messages
* The threat for locally heavy rainfall with scattered storms
  continues today.
* Isolated pockets of a quick 1-4 inches of rainfall could lead to
  flooding, especially over locations that received moderate
  rainfall yesterday.
* Be alert for flooding through the afternoon and never drive
  through a flood roadway.

Early this morning rain and isolated thunderstorms were ongoing with
activity across almost all of South Central Texas with the exception
of the coastal plains. Six hour rain totals ending at midnight show
many locations in the Hill Country with amounts from 1-3 inches,
with local amounts just north of 4.5 inches. Activity should weaken
slightly but continue during the overnight hours, although new
convection is forecast to initiate again sometime in the morning
hours after sunrise. The most favored location for the morning
activity will be again be the southern Edwards Plateau and the Hill
Country with some possibility of storms also moving into the coastal
plains. Isolated to scattered areas of flooding will be possible
today with PWATS remaining around 2 inches across the area. Will
need to especially watch out for training storms over locations that
received the most considerable rainfall yesterday and overnight
tonight as soils may be saturated leading to higher potential for
runoff and flash flooding. Morning activity is expected to move
southeast across the area through the afternoon and early evening.

The mid-level trough axis bringing upper level support for showers
and thunderstorms begins to shift east Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Hi-res and global guidance trend a bit drier for the western and
northwestern portions of the area with the best chances overnight
and into Wednesday now mainly east of I-35. Locally heavy rainfall
with storms and isolated to scattered flooding potential continues
to exist this day.

High temperatures continue to trend on the cool side with afternoon
temperatures from the low 80s to the low 90s today. Temperatures may
increase a few degrees Wednesday with lesser cloud cover expected in
the west and possibly some breaks in the clouds to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

A mid level shear axis, perhaps a closed low, lingers near or over
our area through the long term. A moist airmass with PWs of 1.5 to
2.2 inches persists over our area. Residual surface boundaries and
mesoscale features, in addition to heating and the shear axis/low
provide forcing of this moist airmass to maintain chances of showers
and thunderstorms each day. The highest chances will be mainly along
and east of I-35 where the deeper moisture is found, however could
shift to the west with time. Locally heavy rains can be expected.
With soils becoming more saturated from previous days rains, flash
flooding may become more of a threat, in addition to urban and small
stream type flooding. Forecast soundings indicate a potential for
gusty winds with the strongest storms. Later forecasts will fine
tune the POPs and QPF. Extensive cloudiness and areas of rain will
keep daytime temperatures well below normal for late July, though
they may trend closer to normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain across much of South
Central Texas for the start of the TAF period. This activity is
expected to wane in the next couple of hours but localized MVFR
ceilings or visibility may be possible at I-35 sites due to this
activity. More convection is expected to develop this morning with
most guidance initiating over the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
Country, or coastal plains. From here, timing and exact movement of
storms is still difficult to forecast through the afternoon and
evening. MVFR ceilings will develop around 10-11Z and last through
the morning before VFR conditions in the absence of thunderstorms
returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  72  90  72 /  50  20  40  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  72  88  71 /  50  20  40  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  73  88  73 /  60  30  50  30
Burnet Muni Airport            86  71  89  70 /  60  10  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  76  95  76 /  60  40  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  71  87  71 /  60  20  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             86  72  89  71 /  60  30  40  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  71  87  71 /  60  30  40  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  72  84  72 /  80  30  70  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  74  89  74 /  60  30  40  20
Stinson Muni Airport           89  74  90  74 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...04
Aviation...27

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-240800-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
247 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through this evening across
much of South Central Texas. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with this activity which may lead to scattered flooding
across the area, especially over locations which received moderate
rainfall yesterday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Multiple rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the weekend. Any activity will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall which may lead to scattered flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.