Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1244 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Area of strong to severe thunderstorms through sunrise from
  eastern Kansas into central Missouri. Hail to up to half
  dollars and 60 mph wind gusts are the greatest concern. A
  Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 6 AM.

- 30 to 50% chance for thunderstorms into central Missouri mid
  to late afternoon and evening. There is a Slight (10 to 15%)
  Risk of severe storms in central Missouri. Hail up to golf
  ball size and 60 mph wind gusts are the primary concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Quick discussion this morning as active weather continues across the
forecast area.

Through midnight, thunderstorms continue along and just north of the
warm front across northeastern Kansas into central Missouri,
generally from Leavenworth to Moberly, MO. This activity continues
to maintain with modest balance and redevelopment from the cold
pools they've laid down, available instability, and support from the
LLJ. Reports of quarter to a little larger hail continues to be
reported. This activity will continue to persist through the
morning, slowly moving east. Per 05Z surface analysis, the warm
front is stalled just near or south of the Missouri River. To the
west, a mid-level short wave trough continues to lift east-northeast
out of far southwest Kansas, providing a source of large scale
ascent as it continues to advance eastward this morning. At the
surface, the surface trough remains focused from near Wichita into
east central Kansas. Ahead, a decent warm sector persists, with
surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s as far north as the KC
Metro. Through 1230 AM, new development has commenced along the
surface trough, supported by a combo of the short wave and surface
trough. Most CAMs caught on to this earlier and persist this
activity across eastern Kansas into western Missouri through early
this morning. As we get to 1 AM and 2 AM, expect some more coverage
along this boundary, building eastward through the early morning
hours. The NAMnest continues to be the most bullish of guidance,
which is par for the course, but HRRR isn't too different. In
reality, development and maintenance will be highly dependent on
cold pool development and influence on storm motions, but given a
narrow ribbon of MLCAPE 1000 to 1500 J/Kg and a 40 to 50 kt LLJ,
feel confident that storms will develop somewhere near the surface
boundary and persist to the east through the early morning, before
dissipating toward sunrise as they move into a less favorable
environment. Generally, hail will be the primary concern, up to half
dollar size, perhaps a touch larger with any more robust updraft.
The tornado risk will be low but not zero, most soundings show
rather elevated instability and surface winds are not backed ahead
of the boundary enhancing low level helicity.

Through the morning, with much of the area rather worked over, an
EML will develop again over the warm sector, with a modest inversion
aloft. The surface trough will be outstretched from southeast Kansas
into mid-Missouri. Through mid-afternoon, ample instability will
develop ahead of the boundary, with forecast soundings suggesting a
break down of the inversion through the late afternoon. Convection
will commence around 4 to 7 PM across central Missouri and quickly
move eastward through 9 to 10 PM. Hail will be the primary concern,
up to half dollar size with the strongest updrafts. Generally agree
with SPC keeping the Slight Risk in central Missouri.

The Friday into the weekend forecast remains relatively the same as
the past few forecast packages. A surface ridge settles in through
Saturday ahead of a lumbering southwest H500 trough. Cooler, more
seasonable temperatures arrive early next week as a sizable cold
front swings through Sunday night, influencing our weather through
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Convection continues to move across Kansas and Missouri early
Thursday morning. Activity at the terminals will be hit or miss
as storms continue to develop on the nose the nocturnal low
level jet in eastern Kansas and then move east or northeast into
Missouri. The nocturnal jet has also resulted in some low level
wind shear for the KC terminals. Otherwise, expect surface winds
to slowly veer through the day to the north as a cold front
settles south Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-140830-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
329 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon and
 will continue through the evening.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
 afternoon.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1118 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     Hail             5 NW Jarbalo            39.26N 95.13W
03/13/2024  E1.00 inch       Leavenworth        KS   Emergency Mngr

            Quarter size hail reported in Springdale.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1126 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Hail             2 WSW Maywood           39.12N 94.84W
03/13/2024  M1.75 inch       Wyandotte          KS   Public

            Photo of golf ball size hail just north of
            Kansas Speedway. Time estimated from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1133 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     Hail             Brunswick               39.43N 93.13W
03/13/2024  E1.00 inch       Chariton           MO   Broadcast Media

            KOMU Viewer reports multiple quarter size
            hail stones.

&&

AK

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
103 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     Hail             1 NNW Ferrelview        39.33N 94.68W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Platte             MO   Public

            social media report.

&&

AK