River Flood Warning 9, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1244 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Area of strong to severe thunderstorms through sunrise from
  eastern Kansas into central Missouri. Hail to up to half
  dollars and 60 mph wind gusts are the greatest concern. A
  Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 6 AM.

- 30 to 50% chance for thunderstorms into central Missouri mid
  to late afternoon and evening. There is a Slight (10 to 15%)
  Risk of severe storms in central Missouri. Hail up to golf
  ball size and 60 mph wind gusts are the primary concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Quick discussion this morning as active weather continues across the
forecast area.

Through midnight, thunderstorms continue along and just north of the
warm front across northeastern Kansas into central Missouri,
generally from Leavenworth to Moberly, MO. This activity continues
to maintain with modest balance and redevelopment from the cold
pools they've laid down, available instability, and support from the
LLJ. Reports of quarter to a little larger hail continues to be
reported. This activity will continue to persist through the
morning, slowly moving east. Per 05Z surface analysis, the warm
front is stalled just near or south of the Missouri River. To the
west, a mid-level short wave trough continues to lift east-northeast
out of far southwest Kansas, providing a source of large scale
ascent as it continues to advance eastward this morning. At the
surface, the surface trough remains focused from near Wichita into
east central Kansas. Ahead, a decent warm sector persists, with
surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s as far north as the KC
Metro. Through 1230 AM, new development has commenced along the
surface trough, supported by a combo of the short wave and surface
trough. Most CAMs caught on to this earlier and persist this
activity across eastern Kansas into western Missouri through early
this morning. As we get to 1 AM and 2 AM, expect some more coverage
along this boundary, building eastward through the early morning
hours. The NAMnest continues to be the most bullish of guidance,
which is par for the course, but HRRR isn't too different. In
reality, development and maintenance will be highly dependent on
cold pool development and influence on storm motions, but given a
narrow ribbon of MLCAPE 1000 to 1500 J/Kg and a 40 to 50 kt LLJ,
feel confident that storms will develop somewhere near the surface
boundary and persist to the east through the early morning, before
dissipating toward sunrise as they move into a less favorable
environment. Generally, hail will be the primary concern, up to half
dollar size, perhaps a touch larger with any more robust updraft.
The tornado risk will be low but not zero, most soundings show
rather elevated instability and surface winds are not backed ahead
of the boundary enhancing low level helicity.

Through the morning, with much of the area rather worked over, an
EML will develop again over the warm sector, with a modest inversion
aloft. The surface trough will be outstretched from southeast Kansas
into mid-Missouri. Through mid-afternoon, ample instability will
develop ahead of the boundary, with forecast soundings suggesting a
break down of the inversion through the late afternoon. Convection
will commence around 4 to 7 PM across central Missouri and quickly
move eastward through 9 to 10 PM. Hail will be the primary concern,
up to half dollar size with the strongest updrafts. Generally agree
with SPC keeping the Slight Risk in central Missouri.

The Friday into the weekend forecast remains relatively the same as
the past few forecast packages. A surface ridge settles in through
Saturday ahead of a lumbering southwest H500 trough. Cooler, more
seasonable temperatures arrive early next week as a sizable cold
front swings through Sunday night, influencing our weather through
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Convection continues to move across Kansas and Missouri early
Thursday morning. Activity at the terminals will be hit or miss
as storms continue to develop on the nose the nocturnal low
level jet in eastern Kansas and then move east or northeast into
Missouri. The nocturnal jet has also resulted in some low level
wind shear for the KC terminals. Otherwise, expect surface winds
to slowly veer through the day to the north as a cold front
settles south Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Cutter

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

KSZ102-MOZ001-002-011-012-140800-
Doniphan KS-Atchison MO-Holt MO-Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DONIPHAN...ATCHISON...HOLT...
NODAWAY AND ANDREW COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

At 226 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Nemaha to near Rulo to White Cloud to near
Robinson. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Maryville, Savannah, Tarkio, Mound City, Highland, Troy, Rock Port,
Oregon, Fairfax, Burlington Junction, Maitland, Amazonia, Skidmore,
Forest City, Craig, Fillmore, White Cloud, Braddyville, Denton, and
Blanchard.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 54 and 111.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 11 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and northwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9493 4043 9480 4030 9475 3988 9474
      3965 9534 4000 9534 4000 9531 4004 9542
      4012 9539 4018 9548 4023 9547 4025 9549
      4026 9555 4030 9556 4032 9561 4031 9565
      4032 9566 4034 9562 4036 9563 4058 9532
TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 233DEG 49KT 4030 9557 4010 9539 3997 9534 3980
9535

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Kurtz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MOZ031-032-038-039-140800-
Carroll MO-Saline MO-Chariton MO-Lafayette MO-
228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN CHARITON...CENTRAL
CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN SALINE AND NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

At 228 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Bosworth to Carrollton to near
Waverly. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Brunswick, Waverly, Hale, Bosworth, Wakenda, Miami,
Mendon, Bogard, Tina, De Witt, Rothville, Grand Pass, and Triplett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
central, north central and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3923 9312 3918 9367 3936 9355 3956 9355
      3962 9336 3961 9328 3962 9328 3962 9326
      3964 9327 3971 9307 3970 9296 3947 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 256DEG 33KT 3951 9347 3938 9347 3926 9355

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Kurtz

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>