Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread thunderstorms (70-90+%) this evening into the
overnight. There is an enhanced risk (30-44%) of severe storms. 2+
inch hail, 60-70 mph wind gusts, an isolated tornado, and locally
heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding are all possible
with this activity.

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms (40-70%) tomorrow. Storms
may be ongoing from overnight activity and that will greatly
influence location, coverage, intensity of subsequent severe
thunderstorm potential. There is a slight risk (15-29%) of severe
thunderstorms. Hail up to golf ball size, 60 mph wind gusts are the
primary concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows  a trough
digging into the Southwest. A strong upper-level jet, with the left
front quadrant of that jet, will be nosing into southeastern KS and
southwestern MO with diffluent flow developing over northeastern KS
and northwestern MO. At the surface, a low pressure area will move
from southwestern KS eastward as the evening and overnight
progresses. A warm front extends eastward from this surface low and
will slowly lift northward and essentially split the forecast area
in half from west to east by this evening, settling in the vicinity
of the Missouri River. The location of this warm front will need to
watched closely as the greatest potential for tornadoes will exist
in its vicinity. Additionally, very strong 0-3km CAPE values will
reside along and just south of the warm front. That will give the
potential to rapidly stretch any updraft that will be in the
vicinity of the warm front. Also, the low-level jet is expected to
increase significantly approaching 00Z and later and will nose into
the warm front. This will lead to greatly enhanced low-level
helicity values along and south of the warm front and given the
strong instability and high shear, lead to a several hour window
when tornadoes are more likely. Given the anticipated location of
the warm front, this puts the KC Metro at risk for this potential.
The tornado potential will diminish with time as the boundary layer
stabilizes as the evening progresses. As storms move north of the
warm front, the environment will become elevated and thus diminish/
eliminate the tornado potential. However, steep lapse rates will
remain and with continued strong shear will lead to elevated
supercells with very large hail possible. With coverage of storms
north of the warm front expected to become widespread, along with
the the potential for training storms, locally heavy rainfall and
flooding will also be concern overnight.

Storms congeal into one or more clusters across northern MO
overnight and how those storms evolve will have a large influence on
how tomorrow's severe potential will evolve. The most likely
scenario is that the storms across northern MO will drop an outflow
boundary southward and that boundary then acts as the low-level
focus for renewed convection later tomorrow morning or into the
early afternoon in our eastern zones. The best upper-level support
will have shifted to the east but eastern sections of the forecast
area may reside in the right rear quadrant of an upper-level speed
max. And with the potential for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong
shear, will lead to the risk of severe storms in our eastern zones
during the afternoon hours.

Beyond Thursday, dry weather conditions are expected. Models develop
a Rex block over the western third of the US with our area generally
between the south subtropical jet and the polar jet. This will help
keep the weather quiet through much of next week. Temperatures will
be cooler compared to the last few days as well given the pattern. A
stronger trough will dive across the eastern half of the US early
next week and that will lead to temperatures trending closer to
normal Sunday and Monday before warming back above normal by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

For the 00Z TAF cycle, a warm front is lifting north across the
Kansas-Missouri stateline, currently having just moved north of
the KMCI terminal. The first 7 hours of the TAF are based on
expected thunderstorm development along the lifting front this
evening. Once the activity gets going this evening storms will
fill in and the TAF will need updating. Otherwise, expect the
activity to slowly shift north overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-140830-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
329 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon and
 will continue through the evening.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
 afternoon.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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