Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
959 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will fall apart as it moves through Central PA
overnight accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Mostly cloudy, but rain- free weather returns for Sunday, before
a slow-moving trough brings the next chance of rain from Monday
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cluster of thunderstorms from Williamsport west to Elk County
is expected to persist and drop south into the early morning
hours. At this point, heavy rain/flooding and a sub-severe gusty wind
threat are primary concerns with all hands on deck continuing
to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Forecast soundings indicate an upsloping southeast flow will
result in persistent stratus and perhaps a bit of fog or drizzle
over the central/east zones for Sun and Sun night. The cloud
cover and flow off of the Atlantic should result in markedly
cooler afternoon temps Sunday than on Saturday, with highs
likely stuck in the 60s over the Central Mtns. Sun night looks
mainly dry with prev anticipated forcing holding off a bit
longer/later.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surging PWATs with enhanced energy from an upper-level trough
will bring about an unsettled pattern throughout much of the
long-term period. Deterministic model guidance is in fairly good
agreement that low-pressure stationed over the southern Great
Lakes will bring about shower activity on Monday; however, model
guidance has trended slower with the onset of rainfall and have
chopped PoPs throughout the early period of the day as models
tend to converge on a (slightly) slower progression. The best
chances of showers will come across the Laurel Highlands during
the late morning hours, continuing eastward throughout the
afternoon/evening hours. Elevated instability will be highest
across the western third of the area, so have limited mentions
of storms to this area during the PM hours.

Model guidance outlines another surface low-pressure system
tracking northeastward across western portions of the Upper Ohio
Valley and into southern Ontario Tuesday into Wednesday, with
slightly more moisture and lift available as the warm front
aligns itself north-to-south across west-central PA. Given
slightly better lift with this low-pressure system coupled with
enhanced moisture, have retained likely PoPs in the Tuesday to
Wednesday timeframe. Given PWATs in the 1.50-1.75" range on
Wednesday, locally heavy rainfall will be possible and this has
been outlined with marginal (level 1/4) risks in the D4 (W) and
D5 (E) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from the Weather Prediction
Center. Impacts at this time look less likely at this time given
ongoing dry conditions across especially SW PA where D2 drought
conditions persist; however, any heavier rainfall in the
preceding days could allow for slightly more impacts.

As we shift into the later part of the week, slightly more
model uncertainty with regards to low-pressure moving N/E of the
area and how this will impact rainfall chances for Central PA.
At this time, have capped PoPs at a chance for Thursday as the
low-pressure system will be slightly closer to our eastern half,
and capped at a slight chance for Friday, keeping close to NBM
model guidance in this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late this evening showers and thunderstorms will continue affect
most TAF sites except, most likely, for KAOO/KJST.

Overnight, medium to high confidence in IFR/LIFR across central
Pennsylvania. GLAMP model guidance and HREF probabilities
continue to suggest fog formation, so have trended towards GLAMP
guidance this cycle. As sunrise approaches, very slow
improvement is expected with the bulk of airfields expected to
stay sub-VFR through 18Z Sunday with exceptions at BFD/JST.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Scattered showers, restrictions possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The high temperature in Bradford on Friday set a new record
high of 82 degrees. This broke the record of 81 degrees set in
1978 and 2016.

The first day of autumn 2024 (Fall Equinox) begins at 8:44 am
EDT on Sunday September 22nd.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Gartner/NPB
AVIATION...Gartner/NPB
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Martin/NPB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
237 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

PAZ004-037-041-042-046-051>053-057>059-066-221845-
Warren-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
237 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-049-050-056-063>065-
221845-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-
Snyder-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-York-
237 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms may make strong, gusty winds and small hail
into the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1004 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Shinglehouse        41.97N 78.19W
09/21/2024                   Potter             PA   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking the highway.

&&

ADE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1007 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Lyman Run State P 41.71N 77.74W
09/21/2024                   Potter             PA   911 Call Center

            Trees down blocking roadway and wires down
            on the roadway.

&&

ADE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1008 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

PAZ050>053-058-220245-
Columbia PA-Northumberland PA-Montour PA-Snyder PA-Schuylkill PA-
1008 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SCHUYLKILL...
CENTRAL NORTHUMBERLAND...SOUTHERN MONTOUR AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT...

At 1006 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Northumberland, moving southeast at 25 mph. Other strong storms
were nearby.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sunbury, Shamokin, Mount Carmel, Northumberland, Kulpmont, Ashland,
Winfield, Elysburg, Fairview-Ferndale, Riverside, Trevorton, Shamokin
Dam, Marshallton, Lavelle, Aristes, Numidia, Wilburton Number One,
Locustdale, Beurys Lake, and Wilburton Number Two.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 7651 4089 7689 4089 7682 4091 7685
      4094 7686 4101 7678 4082 7628
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 302DEG 20KT 4090 7677

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Martin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1022 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Shinglehouse      41.98N 78.20W
09/21/2024                   Potter             PA   911 Call Center

            Flooding reported in a house and garage
            where the occupant reports that the water is
            still rising.

&&

ADE

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