Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
959 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will fall apart as it moves through Central PA
overnight accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Mostly cloudy, but rain- free weather returns for Sunday, before
a slow-moving trough brings the next chance of rain from Monday
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cluster of thunderstorms from Williamsport west to Elk County
is expected to persist and drop south into the early morning
hours. At this point, heavy rain/flooding and a sub-severe gusty wind
threat are primary concerns with all hands on deck continuing
to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Forecast soundings indicate an upsloping southeast flow will
result in persistent stratus and perhaps a bit of fog or drizzle
over the central/east zones for Sun and Sun night. The cloud
cover and flow off of the Atlantic should result in markedly
cooler afternoon temps Sunday than on Saturday, with highs
likely stuck in the 60s over the Central Mtns. Sun night looks
mainly dry with prev anticipated forcing holding off a bit
longer/later.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surging PWATs with enhanced energy from an upper-level trough
will bring about an unsettled pattern throughout much of the
long-term period. Deterministic model guidance is in fairly good
agreement that low-pressure stationed over the southern Great
Lakes will bring about shower activity on Monday; however, model
guidance has trended slower with the onset of rainfall and have
chopped PoPs throughout the early period of the day as models
tend to converge on a (slightly) slower progression. The best
chances of showers will come across the Laurel Highlands during
the late morning hours, continuing eastward throughout the
afternoon/evening hours. Elevated instability will be highest
across the western third of the area, so have limited mentions
of storms to this area during the PM hours.

Model guidance outlines another surface low-pressure system
tracking northeastward across western portions of the Upper Ohio
Valley and into southern Ontario Tuesday into Wednesday, with
slightly more moisture and lift available as the warm front
aligns itself north-to-south across west-central PA. Given
slightly better lift with this low-pressure system coupled with
enhanced moisture, have retained likely PoPs in the Tuesday to
Wednesday timeframe. Given PWATs in the 1.50-1.75" range on
Wednesday, locally heavy rainfall will be possible and this has
been outlined with marginal (level 1/4) risks in the D4 (W) and
D5 (E) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from the Weather Prediction
Center. Impacts at this time look less likely at this time given
ongoing dry conditions across especially SW PA where D2 drought
conditions persist; however, any heavier rainfall in the
preceding days could allow for slightly more impacts.

As we shift into the later part of the week, slightly more
model uncertainty with regards to low-pressure moving N/E of the
area and how this will impact rainfall chances for Central PA.
At this time, have capped PoPs at a chance for Thursday as the
low-pressure system will be slightly closer to our eastern half,
and capped at a slight chance for Friday, keeping close to NBM
model guidance in this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late this evening showers and thunderstorms will continue affect
most TAF sites except, most likely, for KAOO/KJST.

Overnight, medium to high confidence in IFR/LIFR across central
Pennsylvania. GLAMP model guidance and HREF probabilities
continue to suggest fog formation, so have trended towards GLAMP
guidance this cycle. As sunrise approaches, very slow
improvement is expected with the bulk of airfields expected to
stay sub-VFR through 18Z Sunday with exceptions at BFD/JST.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Scattered showers, restrictions possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The high temperature in Bradford on Friday set a new record
high of 82 degrees. This broke the record of 81 degrees set in
1978 and 2016.

The first day of autumn 2024 (Fall Equinox) begins at 8:44 am
EDT on Sunday September 22nd.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Gartner/NPB
AVIATION...Gartner/NPB
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Martin/NPB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
237 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

PAZ004-037-041-042-046-051>053-057>059-066-221845-
Warren-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
237 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-049-050-056-063>065-
221845-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-
Snyder-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-York-
237 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms may make strong, gusty winds and small hail
into the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
956 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Cherry Springs St 41.67N 77.83W
09/21/2024                   Potter             PA   911 Call Center

            Multiple Trees down blocking the roadway and
            hung in power lines along the roadway.

&&

ADE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
958 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

PAZ012-018-019-041-045-046-049-220230-
Southern Lycoming PA-Northern Centre PA-Southern Clinton PA-Union PA-
Northern Clinton PA-Northern Lycoming PA-Southern Centre PA-
958 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CENTRE...
SOUTHWESTERN LYCOMING...CENTRAL UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

At 957 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northeast of Lock Haven to Jersey
Shore to near Bellefonte. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lock Haven, Jersey Shore, Carroll, Woodward, Lamar, Zion, Mill Hall,
Avis, Dunnstown, Flemington, Castanea, Millheim, Blanchard,
Aaronsburg, McElhattan, Rebersburg, Spring Mills, Coburn,
Madisonburg, and Bald Eagle State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7705 4095 7711 4082 7755 4105 7784
      4110 7763 4109 7762 4117 7745 4127 7740
      4130 7730
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 328DEG 21KT 4126 7732 4122 7730 4108 7726 4098
7758 4099 7778

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bauco