Alert archive / New York / High Wind Watches in 2024

High Wind Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 11, 202416 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this high wind watch at Jan 11, 2024, 3:42 AM EST for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Jan 12, 2024, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 11, 2024, 3:42 AM EST (08:42 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 12, 2024, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 12, 2024, 3:10 AM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2024-01-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2024-01-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 96 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
627 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
96 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
112 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

173 
WWUS71 KBUF 110842
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
342 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

NYZ004-012>014-019>021-085-111800-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Newark, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, 
Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
342 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph
  possible on Friday night, then southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with
  gusts up to 60 mph possible on Saturday.

* WHERE...Wayne, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, 
  Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ005>008-111800-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0300Z-240114T0900Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
and Lowville
342 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  possible Friday night into Saturday, shifting to the southwest
  on Saturday.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010-011-111800-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, and Batavia
342 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 60 mph
  possible Friday night, then southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with 
  gusts up to 65 mph possible Saturday.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, and Genesee 
  counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

Apffel
3 follow-up statements
296 
WWUS71 KBUF 111719
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1219 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

NYZ004-012>014-019>021-085-120130-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Newark, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, 
Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
1219 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph 
  possible on Friday night, then southwest winds 30 to 40 mph 
  with gusts up to 60 mph possible on Saturday.

* WHERE...Wayne, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, 
  Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ005>008-120130-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0300Z-240114T0900Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
and Lowville
1219 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible Friday night into Saturday, shifting to the southwest 
  on Saturday.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010-011-120130-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, and Batavia
1219 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 60 mph 
  possible Friday night, then southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with 
  gusts up to 65 mph possible Saturday.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, and Genesee 
  counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

TMA
083 
WWUS71 KBUF 120116
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
816 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

NYZ004-012>014-019>021-085-121000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Newark, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, 
Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
816 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph 
  possible on Friday night, then southwest winds 30 to 40 mph 
  with gusts up to 60 mph possible on Saturday.

* WHERE...Wayne, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, 
  Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ005>008-121000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0300Z-240114T0900Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
and Lowville
816 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  possible Friday night. Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts
  up to 60 mph Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010-011-121000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, and Batavia
816 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 60 mph
  possible Friday night, then southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with
  gusts up to 65 mph possible Saturday through Saturday night.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, and Genesee 
  counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
821 
WWUS71 KBUF 120810
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
310 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

NYZ012-013-019>021-085-121700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0900Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, 
Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
310 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph late
  today and tonight, becoming southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts 
  up to 60 mph Saturday and Saturday night.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, 
  Allegany, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ004-014-121700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Wayne-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark and Canandaigua
310 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph
  tonight, becoming southwest Saturday and Saturday night.

* WHERE...Wayne and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ005-121700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0300Z-240114T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the city of Fair Haven
310 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph
  tonight, becoming southwest Saturday and Saturday night.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga county.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010-011-121700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, and Batavia
310 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph tonight,
  becoming southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  Saturday and Saturday night.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, and Genesee 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-121700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0002.240113T0300Z-240114T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0002.240113T0300Z-240114T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
310 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  tonight, becoming southwest Saturday and Saturday night.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Apffel

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind watch went out at Jan 11, 12:47 AM EST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 11, 12:47 AM EST, 2 hours 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1247 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder air pouring into the region in the wake of a departing low
will support lake effect snow to the east of both lakes into
Thursday with up to a foot of snow locally on the Tug Hill plateau,
and light to moderate accumulations for the higher terrain east of
Lake Erie. A fast moving clipper system will also bring a general
light snow to western New York on Thursday. Another powerful storm
will then impact the region this weekend with more widespread
damaging winds Friday night and Saturday, followed by significant
lake snows Saturday night through at least Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Winds will continue to gradually subside overnight. Colder air
has settled into the region, and is supporting a lake response
that will continue through Thursday. The airmass is only
marginally cold enough, but will combine with upslope
enhancement to produce locally heavy snow for the Tug Hill east
of Lake Ontario, and light to moderate accumulations for the
higher terrain east of Lake Erie.

Off Lake Ontario...west flow with only minor north/south fluctuations
at times will continue through the rest of tonight into Thursday
morning. This will direct the heaviest lake effect/upslope snow into
the central and southern Tug Hill. The marginal temperature profile
will likely prevent this from getting too heavy, but still may see
some 1"/hr snowfall rates overnight through Thursday morning. From
mid to late morning through the afternoon boundary layer flow will
back to the southwest, and shear will also increase. This will carry
lake effect snow north across Jefferson County and likely force it
to broaden out into an area of lake enhanced snow during the
afternoon. Thursday night boundary layer flow will veer back to the
west, carrying lake effect snow back south across the Tug Hill into
central Oswego County overnight before weakening.

The heaviest snow amounts will be highly elevation dependent given
the marginal temperatures and importance of upslope flow. Storm
totals will likely reach the 8-12" range across the Tug Hill, with
only 2-4" for surrounding lower elevations.

Off Lake Erie...relatively modest lake effect snow will continue
east of the lake through the early overnight, mainly across northern
portions of the Southern Tier and far southern Erie/Wyoming
counties. This band will begin to move north late tonight, reaching
the Buffalo Metro area just before daybreak. Amounts will be light,
but this may deposit an inch or so of snow across the Buffalo area
just prior to or during the morning commute. The lake snow will then
broaden out into the general synoptic light snow for most of the
day, then strengthen somewhat and move back south across Buffalo and
into the western Southern Tier from mid afternoon through early to
mid evening. This may bring another brief burst of snow for the
evening commute.

Expect totals of 3-6" across the higher terrain of the Boston Hills,
western Wyoming County, and northern portions of Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus counties from tonight through Thursday night. Farther
north, the Niagara Frontier may end up with 1-3" from a combination
of lake effect and the light synoptic snow.

Meanwhile, a progressive clipper system will zip through the
eastern Great Lakes region Thursday bringing some general light
snow or snow showers to the area. Temperatures will be marginal,
but for the most part thermal profiles suggest mainly snow. The
the short duration of this system will greatly limit accumulation
potential, with areas outside of the lake effect snow areas only
seeing an inch or less with localized 1-2 inch amounts possible by
the end of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...The Next Powerful Storm to Impact the Region This Weekend with
STRONG Winds and SIGNIFICANT Lake Snows...

We will start the period off quiet Friday morning, with mainly dry
weather expected through the daylight hours. Highs will be in the
upper 30s lower elevations (low 40s Lake Erie shore) with low to mid
30s elsewhere. Southeasterly winds will start to ramp up across
western NY Friday afternoon as models continue to advertise
anomalously strong (sub 980mb) area of low pressure passing by to
our west and northwest Friday night and Saturday. This will be a
similar scenario to the storm that just impacted our area on
Tuesday, with strong southeasterly winds on the front side of the
system impacting the same areas that were just battered by the
previous storm. Wind profiles, strength of low pressure system, and
track are all very similar, so expect similar conditions with this
system. Localized downslope areas between the terrain and Lake Erie
shore and the north/northwest facing slopes of the Tug Hill will
again see the highest impacts, but expect it to be very windy in
general with a tight pressure gradient in place owed to the -4/-5SD
low. Precipitation will may start off in the frozen form once again
(especially across higher terrain), with a transition of rain to
snow from southwest to northeast through the first half of Friday
night. That said, latest guidance is trending a bit cooler for
Friday night, but will hold with current forecast and see if trend
continues before changing anything. Expect at least minor
accumulations on the front end (onset), especially across the higher
terrain and areas east of Lake Ontario, before the transition to
plain rain overnight. If colder air can remain locked in across the
North Country, precip may only briefly mix with or change to rain
across Tug Hill/western Dacks, which would bring more significant
front end snowfall amounts. Otherwise, will have a non-diurnal
temperature trend with temps remaining nearly steady or slowly
rising through the 30s before strong occluded front plows across the
area from west to east second half of Friday night through the first
half of Saturday. Coldest airmass of the season starts to pour in
across the region by the start of Saturday morning with rain already
transitioning back to snow across the western Southern Tier.

Temperatures will fall across WNY through the day Saturday, with
falling temps from midday on across the eastern Lake Ontario region
with all areas down near freezing or below by the end of the day.
Strong CAA in the wake of the fropa will cause rain to transition
back to snow from west to east and from high terrain to low by
mid/late afternoon with some accumulations possible. One difference
with this system will be the more traditional strong
southwesterly/westerly wind field aloft in the post-frontal polar
airmass that will likely bring the next or just continue the next
round of wind headlines for the region as strong CAA helps mix
strong winds aloft down to the surface. Widespread synoptic
precipitation will pull off to the northeast Saturday afternoon with
lake effect snows starting to organize downwind of the lakes as very
cold air pours across the relatively warmer lake waters.

Plenty of lingering synoptic moisture and a saturated DGZ in play
should allow lake effect snows to get cranking Saturday night and
Sunday, mainly across areas east of Lakes Erie and Ontario, south of
Buffalo and Watertown. Still too early for specifics such as exact
band placement and accumulations, but localized significant snow
amounts do look likely through the second half of the weekend across
these areas. It will also remain windy, which will also mean the
potential for areas of blowing snow. It will be much colder with
lows in mid teens to low 20s Saturday night and highs Sunday low to
mid 20s, upper teens higher terrain.

Model guidance diverges some toward the tail end of the period,
however overall consensus advertises winds backing more
southwesterly later Sunday and Sunday night. This would take any
lake effect activity and send it northeast of the lakes, possibly
impacting the Buffalo and Watertown areas. Will need to monitor
trends. Lows Sunday night mainly in the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This period will feature a stretch of much colder weather with below
normal temperatures settling in across the eastern Great Lakes and
northeast CONUS. This will likely lead to a continuation for the
potential for lake effect snow early in the period. Pattern suggests
that the lake effect may try to nudge northward as the flow becomes
southwesterly for a time which would send the lake effect northeast
possibly impacting the Buffalo and Watertown areas early next week.

Confidence in how the lake effect snow evolves thereafter gets lower
as the pattern will become more complicated with the development and
eventual northward influence of a coastal low which would disrupt the
lake effect pattern in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread MVFR CIGS in stratus will continue overnight in most
areas. Lake effect snow will bring local IFR east of Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario overnight. Off Lake Erie, lake effect snow will
move north across KBUF and KIAG this morning, resulting in a 2-3
hour period of IFR or lower conditions. The band will push
north of KBUF during the day, then move back southward across
the airfield in the afternoon.

Off Lake Ontario lake snows will move in during the afternoon,
with lower confidence since the band will be on the fringe of
KART.

Elsewhere a clipper low will produce general light snow as it
moves through during the afternoon and evening with MVFR to
occasionally IFR flight conditions. Lake snows will push
southward in the evening with KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART improving
while vsby lowers at KJHW.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR most of the day. MVFR/IFR late afternoon and Friday
night with snow/rain developing. Strong winds Friday night.
Saturday...Strong winds. MVFR/IFR with rain changing to snow from
west to east.
Sunday...Windy. Heavy lake effect snow with IFR and lower east
of the lakes, MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Monday...Heavy lake effect snow northeast of the lakes with
IFR and lower. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.

&&

.MARINE...
A very deep storm system exiting to Quebec will allow winds to
continue to diminish overnight. Dropped the last of the gale
warnings for this event. It will remain windy through Thursday
though, with small craft headlines for most of the waters.

Another very deep storm system will arrive into the eastern
Great Lakes Friday and into this weekend. This will be a
complicated wind forecast depending upon the exact track of the
storm system with winds initially out of the east Friday,
becoming southeast Friday night, then shifting to southwest Saturday
with winds strengthening up to at least 40 knot gales, with some
potential for 50 knot storms.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 11, 12:39 AM EST, 3 hours 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

NYZ012-019-020-085-120545-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

A storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce
another round of strong winds Friday night through Saturday night.
This may be followed by a significant lake effect event Saturday
night through at least Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-011-120545-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A strong storm system passing near area this weekend will likely
produce another round of strong winds Friday night into Saturday
night. This may then be followed by a significant lake effect snow
event. The snow is expected to be south of Buffalo and Batavia
initially, but may move into the area late Sunday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-013-014-021-120545-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Allegany-
1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A strong storm system passing near area this weekend will likely
produce another round of strong winds Friday night into Saturday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-120545-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

A strong storm system passing near area this weekend will likely
produce another round of strong winds Saturday through Saturday
night, and possibly significant lake effect snow Saturday night
through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-120545-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-120545-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-120545-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 11, 3:43 AM ESTLakeshore Flood WatchBUFChautauqua, Erie23 hr
Jan 11, 3:46 AM ESTGale WatchBUF10 hr
Jan 11, 1:56 PM ESTWinter Storm WatchBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Lewis and 2 more23 hr
Jan 11, 2:06 PM ESTGale WarningBUF3 days

Nearby

High Wind Watches in New York, 2024Every high wind watch in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.